Sports betting Theoretical Discussion?
homerplayer
Senior Member
Hope for some quality input from sharps and math guys alike. My internal debates always prove lacking. Been tossing around this best number thing in my head. There really is no need for handicapping if I can get the best number on every play ie positive CLV. That comes with the caveat it is viable unless you have a proven edge like BG in MLB or Dr H currently displays in hoops Totals.
One if my Books has recently been sporting some off market numbers and sometimes 5 or 10 minutes before game time. I would hardly list this book or it's clientele as Sharp. Do I play everyone of them?
And this is where my internal debate goes off the rails. What if I am on the wrong side? Which is impossible to determine as the result of one independent event (game) fails to prove which side was the right one.
I feel like this situation, with the lines not matching WA is a perfect set up for a bottom feeder like me. Low limits at this book , which should keep pros and sharps away, which suggests this book's line are wrong more often than not. So how to play that?
And the bigger question is getting the best number every time, and knowing that a single outcome proves nothing, do I even worry about the 'right' side long term. If I am getting a point, and assuming the Closer gets as close to peak efficacy as it can, a point move either way, with or against Market, should move my long term ATS % in my favor, no? Will the move be substantial enough?
Thanks to any and all for insight.
One if my Books has recently been sporting some off market numbers and sometimes 5 or 10 minutes before game time. I would hardly list this book or it's clientele as Sharp. Do I play everyone of them?
And this is where my internal debate goes off the rails. What if I am on the wrong side? Which is impossible to determine as the result of one independent event (game) fails to prove which side was the right one.
I feel like this situation, with the lines not matching WA is a perfect set up for a bottom feeder like me. Low limits at this book , which should keep pros and sharps away, which suggests this book's line are wrong more often than not. So how to play that?
And the bigger question is getting the best number every time, and knowing that a single outcome proves nothing, do I even worry about the 'right' side long term. If I am getting a point, and assuming the Closer gets as close to peak efficacy as it can, a point move either way, with or against Market, should move my long term ATS % in my favor, no? Will the move be substantial enough?
Thanks to any and all for insight.
Comments
- have pinny on one screen, the local on the other
- find those that have a variance and quantify to determine the scalp by selling points on pinny to the number your local has
- i always used a threshold of about 5 cents justifying a play
- collect your cash (majority of the time the local would be paying and pinny would be getting reloaded)
- do the step above long enough and realize that over time pinny was sharper and the edge was to play the local's bad numbers on their own
- collect your cash (albeit with some swings as it won't always go your way)
things have definitely changed since then, but i would think the idea should still be a decent starting point. only big factor in this is that i can no longer speak to is how sharp is pinny in american sports like college hoops, bases, etc.?
best of luck
Depends on the sport, they were taking 200k with 6c lines on the barca game today.
This is true, but I don't think homer or horns are referring to the Champions League.
Probably not, but he should be. I made more betting off market soccer lines at locals than probably anything else.
Great post D. Thanks to all for the input so far.
But D's post speaks to the larger theory or philosophy, if you will, that I'm driving at. I don't care which sport it is. Really wouldn't tether any of it to Pinny lines alone either. I'm speaking generally of WA lines everywhere and one book being off. Not necessarily stales lines and most certainly not this book taking a position. The following question excludes steamed moves triggered by RAS or other respected cappers and all other things being equal:
Long term, it shouldn't matter which side I take as long as the off market number is better then the Closer?
Wow, that sounds borderline retarded when I read it back. But also reminds me that solutions sometimes draw their elegance from their simplicity.
if it isn't a stale line and it is not the book taking a position isn't the only possibility left is that it is an error? i believe what you are saying is that as long as the variance is large enough to produce value over the long haul you should blindly play it regardless of the sport/market. i would wholeheartedly agree...the hard part is quantifying when the value is there. i gave you my simpleton approach in my original post but you can take it and run with it as far as you would like (and your time allows).