Olympic Betting... anyone have any plays?
milfhunter
Senior Member
Thought i would see if anybody caps these, and if so what are some plays?
milfhunter
Senior Member
Comments
Martin Fourcade +207 vs the field in mens 10km sprint
This guy has totally dominated the 10km sprint events on the world cup this year.
I played U.S.A will win over 10.5 gold medals
@ 5dimes - 155 risking 310 to win 200.
I think this will win easy !
GOOD LUCK 2. ALL
- Seung-Hoon Lee +115 vs Ivan Skobrev (Many believe the Russian will skate better as he skates at home, Seung-Hoon is still the better skater in my opinion)
- Sven Kramer -565 vs Any Other Competitor
This means he will win gold. Has been dominating the 5 and 10KM rides for years now. I know many people don't like to lay such big odds. In my opinion as close as a sure thing in these Olympics. Also skates right after the dwell. Has a small disadvantage that he has to skate before his main competitors, but I believe that this is actually advantageous. He will skate very fast as usual. Other skaters will have to try to keep up with his tempo and will most probably 'break' or 'burn out' due to this in their final laps.
I was looking at posting Kramer but the number I had was much worse and he is at -625 at pinny so good play. Of all the sports in the winter olympics speed skating is the closest in betting trends to swimming and track and field where season long form usually translates to winning and the favorites win most of the time.
Im very suprised Canada is favoured here............USA has won the last 4 exhibition games in fairly convincing fashion.................Canada team in a little bit of turmoil with the quick coaching turnaround.
True sharps went with the correlated parlay of a duet with the Iron Sheik.
Tomorrow morning at 5AM the sprint starts with the 500M for men. 2nd skate will be in the afternoon.
There's a chance to lock in a profit as the 3 favourites have some nice payouts if they win Gold. Mo Tae-Bum at +290, Michel Mulder at +375 and Joji Kato at +450. I don't see any other of the skaters contend for gold, so betting all 3 at once. If you do this and none of them wins, you'll lose 3 units. Be aware of this! But as i said: The winner should come from these 3.
Other plays:
91316 MICHEL MULDER +110 vs MO TAE-BUM. (I believe there's a 50/50 chance for these gentlemen, so a +110 payout is +EV in my opinion.)
91313 MO TAE-BUM -167 vs JAN SMEEKENS. (Smeekens hasn't shown the form that won him 7 World Cups last year. Besides he's using the 500m as a warm-up for the 1000M)
Women's 3000m Relay.
- Either China or South Korea will win Gold in this one. So betting South Korea at -180 to win 100 and simultaneously betting a 100 on China at +265.
- I believe that the 4 teams in the Finals will be South Korea, Canada (from the first semifinal heat) and China with the Netherlands from the second semi-final heat. Therefore the Netherlands at +135 vs Russian Federation is a good bet. Russia's chances of advancing with South Korea and Canada in the same heat are very very slim. Holland just won the European Championships 3 weeks ago and beat GB, Hungary and Italy in doing so.
- Same thing with Netherlands +128 vs Japan and Canada +110 vs Italy
Good luck if you decide to tail.
Joji Kato -130 vs Ronald Mulder
Michel Mulder -175 vs Ronald Mulder
Michel Mulder -140 vs Jan Smeekens
Ronald has always played 2nd fiddle to his twin brother Michel (Who is one of the favourites together with Joji Kato) and Smeekens is aiming for the 1000m. Will use the 500m as a warmup (according to his coach)
In the 500m Speedskating for Men, the first heats are just finished. Michel Mulder was quick as usual and sits well just 0.04 off the lead. Mo Tae Bum with a slightly disappointing time sits in 4th with 0.25 seconds difference. Big surprise is Jan Smeekens who scorched over the track in 34.59 for the lead. 2nd Heat will be in a bit.
That was an amazing finish!!
Lines at Cris have not opened yet, so I'll be waiting for that one, but over at Pinnacle (where I don't have an account) there's a bet which has a 99.99% chance of winning: Brian Hansen +482 vs The Field -650. Unless everybody trips over their skates, there's no way Brian Hansen wins this thing. I don't know what the limits are at Pinny, but over at Cris they're $500 on skating bets.
Yup, thanks Cools. They just announced the pairings for the 1000m Sprint.
Bets where I see value:
Michel Mulder +115 vs Brian Hansen
Stefan Groothuis +110 vs Brian Hansen
Denis Kuzin +100 vs Mo Tae-Bum
In short:
Brian Hansen is an up and coming US talent. He started reaching the podium in the World Cup last year on the 1000m and 1500m distances. He skated very well at the beginning of this season (Oct, Nov and Dec) but his fast times may be deceptive when you compare them to the rest of the world. He mostly skates on the really quick ovals of Salt Lake (altitude) and Calgary (fastest track worldwide). Shani Davis is the favourite in this event and rightfully so. However I believe that Michel Mulder (top-form), Dennis Kuzin (winner here in Sochi last year at the WC) and Stefan Groothuis (outsider) also have a chance of winning. Mo Tae Bum hasn't shown top-form on his favourite distance, the 500m, but you can never count him out.
Hey Awesome-O,
I don't like that one from a betting perspective. The problem is that if anything goes wrong with Davis, you will lose the bet. He might trip, his opponent might bump into him at the lane-switch, he might have 2 false starts etc etc. The reason why I like The Field -600 vs Brian Hansen better, is because there are about 5 guys that are better than him in my opinion. Any one of them trips or DQ's, then you still have the other 4 to help you win the bet.
Do I believe that Shani Davis will beat Brian Hansen? Yes I do.
I just like the other bet better.
Watching the olympic trials I think you are underrating Hanson here. Shani basically skates on the same tracks and his ability has translated to everywhere else in the world.
I dont think Hanson has a shot at beating Shani if they both skate well particularly in the 1000m but I would not be surprised with a medal in both for him.
With you on the Kuzin play.
Hey Kass,
The way I see it, Shani did what he always does. He's been at the top of this event for almost 10 years now. He knows the ebbs and flows of a season. The younger Hansen is just peeking around the corner. His times at the trials were very good. I agree with you. But he just might have peeked a bit early in the season. I'm banking on the experience of Davis, Mulder, Groothuis, Kuzin and Tea-Bum here.
Its going to be interesting for sure and you clearly know the sport so who i am to tell you, you are incorrect. You are on the right side of the field play for sure as even with me being higher on Hansen than you those numbers should have been flipped, just for the fact he has to beat Shani who is just a beast in this event.
Nicely done, sweep