Betting Talk

732 Texas Southern -4.5

helmuthelmut Senior Member
edited January 2014 in Sports Betting
I don't get this line at all I really thought it would have been 10 or more.

Since the start of 2012 at home in SWAC games Texas Southern is 18-1 with the one loss coming in an OT game. During this span they won 15 of them by 10+ and other than the one loss they won all the others by at least seven. They got some big stud from La Salle this year and have a pretty good coach in Mike Davis. Also they have won their last four home games against Southern by margins of 13, 34, 8, 14.

Comments

  • speedboyspeedboy Member
    edited January 2014
    Now it's -4 .
  • vikingpowervikingpower Senior Member
    edited January 2014
    So that means you like the play Helmut?
  • helmuthelmut Senior Member
    edited January 2014
    Yes
    I bet it
  • JalapanoseJalapanose Banned
    edited January 2014
    helmut wrote: »
    I don't get this line at all I really thought it would have been 10 or more.

    Since the start of 2012 at home in SWAC games Texas Southern is 18-1 with the one loss coming in an OT game. During this span they won 15 of them by 10+ and other than the one loss they won all the others by at least seven. They got some big stud from La Salle this year and have a pretty good coach in Mike Davis. Also they have won their last four home games against Southern by margins of 13, 34, 8, 14.


    This is pretty much fezzikian/Bostonian analysis if you ask me, past performances by the programs aren't necessarily a good predictor of today's matchup. Those last four home games juxtaposed with today's "short" line would make me think that you're probably kinda sorta missing something with your "analysis" here.
  • Dr. HDr. H Senior Member
    edited January 2014
    Jalapanose wrote: »
    This is pretty much fezzikian/Bostonian analysis if you ask me, past performances by the programs aren't necessarily a good predictor of today's matchup. Those last four home games juxtaposed with today's "short" line would make me think that you're probably kinda sorta missing something with your "analysis" here.

    I agree with this. I made the game 5 fwiw.
  • JalapanoseJalapanose Banned
    edited January 2014
    FWIW, I fall into the trap as well.....to wit, I texted a board member this over the bowl season - "there just doesn't seem to be a scenario EVER when Kansas state is seven points better than UM on a neutral field"

    FML
  • StevieYStevieY Senior Handicapper
    edited January 2014
    Dr. H wrote: »
    I agree with this. I made the game 5 fwiw.

    -4 here. The age old question. One team can't throw it in the ocean offensively(Southern), the other couldn't defend against their own mother's(Tx Southern), what gives? On the other side, Tx Southern very good offensively against a bottom 60 schedule, Southern solid on D against a top 50'ish schedule, only teams they struggled with are the Baylor's and Arizona's. I almost always side with the D especially when they have played up. Think they got this line right.

    FWIW, the "stud" from La Salle spent last year at W Virginia.
  • Dr. HDr. H Senior Member
    edited January 2014
    3' now.

    I remember the days when "fezzikian/Bostonian analysis " would have been considered a compliment lol.
  • ebemissebemiss Senior Member
    edited January 2014
    I have it around a pickem. Was wondering what others made the total if they'd share?

    Southern 69.22 Texas Southern 69.74 138.96 0.52 -0.52 1/6/2014 (Home)
  • StevieYStevieY Senior Handicapper
    edited January 2014
    TX Southern may be a little thin at guard tonight as well. they basically only play 3 meaningful minutes after losing one in the first game this year. The best of those 3 has missed the last couple and is ? tonight. That leaves two guards who have played more than a couple minutes a night(like 3-4 minutes).
  • Dr. HDr. H Senior Member
    edited January 2014
    ebemiss wrote: »
    I have it around a pickem. Was wondering what others made the total if they'd share?

    Southern 69.22 Texas Southern 69.74 138.96 0.52 -0.52 1/6/2014 (Home)

    I've got it at 146, exactly what the opening number was. It's been bet down a bit and I can get behind that. If forced to play a total, I'd lean under due to what SY said - I trust Southern's D a bit more than Texas Southern's O because Southern has played a much tougher schedule.
  • StevieYStevieY Senior Handicapper
    edited January 2014
    Mine is 142.

    Last year almost every ESPNU SWAC game had above average pace for the teams that were playing. Every game but one had 6 or more possessions in their TV game than their non-TV game. It seems like they know they are on TV. :) The totals were lower too.
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited January 2014
    StevieY wrote: »
    Mine is 142.

    Last year almost every ESPNU SWAC game had above average pace for the teams that were playing. Every game but one had 6 or more possessions in their TV game than their non-TV game. It seems like they know they are on TV. :) The totals were lower too.

    Hopefully they don't find out how many people will actually be watching them on TV tonight...
  • StevieYStevieY Senior Handicapper
    edited January 2014
    TommyL wrote: »
    Hopefully they don't find out how many people will actually be watching them on TV tonight...

    They will have at least 1. :)
  • BetThemDogsBetThemDogs Senior Member
    edited January 2014
    TommyL wrote: »
    Hopefully they don't find out how many people will actually be watching them on TV tonight...

    Hey-- they'll get me every timeout in the football game-- which means I'll end up seeing most of the BB game. :laugh:
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