Fantasy RB Decision (Help!)
Goats
Head Moderator
Semi-finals, non-PPR, consider the matchup a coin-flip, need to start 3 of the following 7 RB's...
Vereen @MIA
Stacy vs. NOR
Andre Brown vs. SEA
Spiller @JAX
Tate @IND
Woodhead @DEN
Gerhart vs. PHL (assume he's 100%, still waiting to hear about his hammy)
I'm almost definitely starting Vereen with Gronk out and the favorable matchup. After that, I'm really struggling. I actually have all 7 projected within about a point of each other in my early projections.
Obviously I hate Brown's matchup. Stacy's isn't great, but he's become such a workhorse, he's hard to sit. Spiller's matchup is good on paper, but JAX has been playing better and he's inconsistent at best. Tate is tough to trust b/c Houston has been so erratic and if they get down, he loses his value. Woodhead is more of a PPR guy, but I expect he'll be in there a lot if they're in catch-up mode (correlation issue also as I'm starting Allen and Gates). Not much to say about Gerhart, matchup is mediocre, he should get the work, and he's always looked good when AP has been out, but he's still a backup and he does have the hammy issue (and yes, the Eagles fan in me would rather not start him).
Posting this one early since it's the playoffs, I'm having so much trouble with it, and Woodhead plays Thursday night. All opinions encouraged!
Vereen @MIA
Stacy vs. NOR
Andre Brown vs. SEA
Spiller @JAX
Tate @IND
Woodhead @DEN
Gerhart vs. PHL (assume he's 100%, still waiting to hear about his hammy)
I'm almost definitely starting Vereen with Gronk out and the favorable matchup. After that, I'm really struggling. I actually have all 7 projected within about a point of each other in my early projections.
Obviously I hate Brown's matchup. Stacy's isn't great, but he's become such a workhorse, he's hard to sit. Spiller's matchup is good on paper, but JAX has been playing better and he's inconsistent at best. Tate is tough to trust b/c Houston has been so erratic and if they get down, he loses his value. Woodhead is more of a PPR guy, but I expect he'll be in there a lot if they're in catch-up mode (correlation issue also as I'm starting Allen and Gates). Not much to say about Gerhart, matchup is mediocre, he should get the work, and he's always looked good when AP has been out, but he's still a backup and he does have the hammy issue (and yes, the Eagles fan in me would rather not start him).
Posting this one early since it's the playoffs, I'm having so much trouble with it, and Woodhead plays Thursday night. All opinions encouraged!
Comments
You almost have to start Stacy......he is a power runner and the Saints have trouble with those types of backs
The toss up for the final spot is tough IMO ......Tate is a starter and Spiller is in a time share......the upside pick here is Spiller, the safe pick is Tate.
Spiller had a 77 yard run a couple weeks ago and also had an 83 yarder called back last week. Those types of runs can wIn you a playoff game. I assume you took CJ high in ur draft (as I did).......so my theory is win or lose with ur best talent. In the end it's ur team and ur decision.....best of luck, sir.
Any insight on how the coaching change for the Texans effects Tate?
Not a clue, just one more thing to make Houston unpredictable. I thought they had given up for the season after losing at home to OAK and JAX, they they came out and gave NE a game and Tate went nuts, then right back to losing to JAX and Tate didn't do much when they got behind.
Best matchups imo are:
Vereen @MIA (nr 19 rushing defense)
Spiller @JAX (nr 27 rushing defense)
Tate @IND (nr 22 rushing defense)
Woodhead @DEN (nr 26 rushing defense)
Of those 4, it's SD with the best Offensive Line at nr 4, NE at 15, Houston at 17 and Buffalo at 25
Hope this helps,
Obi
From RotoWorld:
Toby Gerhart (hamstring) won't try to practice until Friday.
Coach Leslie Frazier said he's a little more optimistic on the status of Gerhart than Adrian Peterson (foot). Still, the inability to even practice a little bit early in the week suggests a Grade 1 or 2 pull for Gerhart. We won't have a real read on this situation until Friday afternoon, leaving owners in a messy spot. Matt Asiata would start if both Peterson and Gerhart sit.
Source: Ben Goessling on Twitter
I could be way off base here but I like Brown pretty well in this spot. I believe the weather is supposed to be cold and snowy and Seattle is not the same team on the road as it is at home. I would say Spiller and Vereen as well and if not Brown I would use Tate. I live in Indy and the Colts D can't stop anybody!
this is why I think Tate should be good here. all qbs in Houston right now are a mess and can't keep the ball from ending up in the defenses hands yet they can power run very well. they need to do so in order to have a chance to get a W vs. indy.
Spiller has looked better lately. Jax isn't very fast on D.
The Texans always seem to run well against the Colts.
I'm worried that STL game could be a blowout and Stacy could lose some volume, but he could always score.
Woodhead is a little intriguing, but I hate watching a game when my back is not on the field every play and you have the whole SD offense if you start him.
Brown has SEA, you got better options than rolling the dice there.
Even if Gerhart goes I wouldn't risk him tweaking that hammy early in the game, that would be a bad way to lose.
Goodluck man.
Agree 100%. That's just how fantasy goes, especially with this many decisions. It's supposed to be a "good" problem, but I'm much happier with 3 clear cut WR's and no decision to make.
Keep the opinions coming. As far as my current thinking, Vereen remains a near-lock, Gerhart is mostly out even if he plays b/c of risk, and not much chance I use Woodhead tonight between touches and correlation with my other Chargers. That leaves Stacy, Tate, Brown, Spiller for two spots.
Still not in love with Brown's matchup, and for those saying they don't like Stacy for fear of a blowout, the Giants are a bigger underdog than the Rams and facing a better defense, so I can't see using that argument for one player but not the other. Houston is right in that same underdog range as well. I guess the argument could be made that the Saints' offense is more suited to explode early and get out to a lead, just pointing out that all but Spiller are on crappy teams that are 5.5 to 7 point dogs. I kinda of feel like Stacy suffers the least as a dog and is a bit more matchup-proof since he is their only reliable weapon and got 19 carries in a 10-pt loss to a solid SF D and salvaged last week's game with a TD even though they got blown out by a tough ARZ D. Brown has done OK in bad situations too, though he does run the risk of losing a goal line carry to Hillis (not that SEA gives up hardly any rushing TD's to begin with). Not that Tate or Spiller are consistent against even weaker opponents, just sharing some thoughts and rambling at this point since I'm short on sleep and haven't had coffee yet. Probably a good time to shut up.
Again, please feel free to chime in if you haven't yet, or even if you have. If Peyton and Decker have monster games for my opponent without Allen/Gates doing well for me, this may all be moot by the end of the night.
Pick 2 - RB
Danny woodhead
Joique bell
Ray rice
Toby gerharrt just snagged off FA and most backs available still like Daniel Thomas etc
Pick 1 - Flex
Any of the above that you wouldn't start at RB
Harry Douglas
Steve smith
Jason written
My two WR are Antonio Brown and Andre Johnson and since I'm in a PPR league I'm happy there ..
For QB I have Mat Ryan with Mccown on bench and can pick up Cutler if needed or Andy dalton but thinking Ryan's best here....?.? Help
Don't have time to look at your whole post and don't play PPR, but yes, definitely Woodhead (especially since I'm leaving him on my bench).
*Vereen #8 RB: 13.4 proj pts- 6 car, 25 yds, 0.2 TD. 6 rec, 73 yds, 0.4 TD (hate to have to trust a Belichick backfield though)
*Stacy #9 RB: 13.4 proj pts- 19 car, 81 yds, 0.5 TD. 2 rec, 18 yds, 0.1 TD. (safest choice of the bunch IMHO)
Brown #11 RB: 13.2 proj pts- 20 car, 89 yds, 0.4 TD. 3 rec, 19 yds, 0.1 TD. (7th hardest def- fantasy adjusted pts to RBs)
*Tate #12 RB: 13.0 proj pts- 18 car, 93 yds, 0.4 TD. 3 rec, 14 yds, 0.1 TD. (16th hardest def FAP to RBs- something feels right in the gut here)
Gerhart #17 RB: 12.4 proj pts- 13 car, 61 yds, 0.5 TD. 4 rec, 28 yds, 0.2 TD. (11th hardest def FAP to RBs- best bet for TD. Slight drop for inj)
Spiller #21 RB: 10.9 proj pts- 14 car, 71 yds, 0.4 TD. 2 rec, 15 yds. (Tempting for the what-if factor, but just cant trust him. Too much risk)
(Woodhead #28 RB: 10.1 proj pts)
Gun to my head, I'm taking Vereen, Stacy, and Gerh... err, Tate.