SweetJones55 NBA Play 11-27
sweetjones55
Senior Member
Rotation #720 Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 (x1)
The Thunder really counter well against what the Spurs are trying to do offensively and defensively. The Spurs run a high pick and roll offense so on just about every play, Parker will have the ball at the top of the 3 point line and then will run a pick and roll. Spurs currently rank 4th in points per possession at .84 in pick and roll ball handler situations. This style of offense plays right into OKC's favor as they are ranked #2 defensively in Pick and Roll Ball Handler situations and #2 in Pick and Roll Man situations. Overall, the Thunder are the #1 team in the NBA defending the pick and roll. This is due to having two tough minded, strong defenders in PG Russell Westbrook and PG Reggie Jackson. Also, having two mobile bigs in Ibaka and Perkins helps their pick and roll defense. Ibaka can show far out on screens but still has the foot speed to get back if the handler does decide to take it to the basket. Perkins does a good job in this area as well. Sure enough, Tony Parkers worst numbers last year against any opponent was against the Thunder who he averaged 10ppg on 36% shooting against. Westbrook does a very good job staying in front of Parker and contesting his jump shots. I also think some of Parkers poor offensive numbers has to do with the fact that he has to expend a ton of energy trying to defend a very active Westbrook on the other end of the court. When Tony Parker doesn't really have it going, this SA team struggles. They can't count as much on the older Manu and Duncan anymore. Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green really play off of these 3 guys and can't get too much on their own. The Spurs offensive possessions will end up in a good amount of spot up 3's and some post ups. OKC ranks 12th in 3pt defense and I think Ibaka/Perkins are very capable post defenders who will be able to hold their own in the post.
I think the Thunder will have success on offense because the Spurs biggest defensive strength is their post defense with Duncan/Splitter. The Thunder run post plays on just 6% of their plays and the majority of the time, it's Kevin Durant in the post and Leonard will have a tough time stopping him there. When Ibaka does get the ball down low, he will normally face up the defender so it's not your traditional style post up play that SA is very good against. The Thunder never run any post plays for Perkins. OKC is a very good offensively running isolation plays and I think they will have a lot of success tonight. Westbrook should be able to get whatever he wants with the smaller, weaker Parker on him. Ibaka shot 52.5% from the field and averaged a double-double against the Spurs last year and I think he will have success against the slower bigs in Duncan/Splitter. They will have a very tough time coming way out on the perimeter to contest his jump shots and he will be able to drive by them when they do come way out. Durant obviously is always going to put up numbers and none of the Spurs defenders in Leonard/Green/Belinelli can check him.
The Thunder are a team that play very well when rested. Over the last 3 years, they are 22-4 straight up with 2-3 days rest. They are a young, athletic team so they can be very hard to stop when coming in fresh to these games. Westbrook was given the night off against Utah last game as well so he will be ready to go. This is just their 3rd game in 9 nights and they have not taken a single flight in 10 days. Being at home allows them to be able to get in a lot of practices. The Spurs on the other hand are not so rested playing their 4th game in 6 nights. They are a team that play much better when rested as well.
The Thunder have had a lot of success against the Spurs playing in OKC winning the last 5 straight by an average of +11.8 points per game. The starters on these teams are the same. The benches have changed a bit. OKC's bench has impressed me especially at home where they ranked 3rd In efficiency difference. The bench is shooting 49% at home while allowing just 40.8% to their opponents. Lamb has been giving them a scoring punch and he stretches the defense with his outside shooting. Reggie Jackson started in last years playoff and gained some good experience. He's one of the best back up PG's in the NBA. Rookie C Steven Adams has been solid down low getting them rebounds and paint points. Fisher and Collision are two veteran players who also play well for them. I think the benches will likely cancel each other out and I think the Thunder starters just matchup well against SA and will give them an edge. I see the Thunder winning by around 7 points.
The Thunder really counter well against what the Spurs are trying to do offensively and defensively. The Spurs run a high pick and roll offense so on just about every play, Parker will have the ball at the top of the 3 point line and then will run a pick and roll. Spurs currently rank 4th in points per possession at .84 in pick and roll ball handler situations. This style of offense plays right into OKC's favor as they are ranked #2 defensively in Pick and Roll Ball Handler situations and #2 in Pick and Roll Man situations. Overall, the Thunder are the #1 team in the NBA defending the pick and roll. This is due to having two tough minded, strong defenders in PG Russell Westbrook and PG Reggie Jackson. Also, having two mobile bigs in Ibaka and Perkins helps their pick and roll defense. Ibaka can show far out on screens but still has the foot speed to get back if the handler does decide to take it to the basket. Perkins does a good job in this area as well. Sure enough, Tony Parkers worst numbers last year against any opponent was against the Thunder who he averaged 10ppg on 36% shooting against. Westbrook does a very good job staying in front of Parker and contesting his jump shots. I also think some of Parkers poor offensive numbers has to do with the fact that he has to expend a ton of energy trying to defend a very active Westbrook on the other end of the court. When Tony Parker doesn't really have it going, this SA team struggles. They can't count as much on the older Manu and Duncan anymore. Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green really play off of these 3 guys and can't get too much on their own. The Spurs offensive possessions will end up in a good amount of spot up 3's and some post ups. OKC ranks 12th in 3pt defense and I think Ibaka/Perkins are very capable post defenders who will be able to hold their own in the post.
I think the Thunder will have success on offense because the Spurs biggest defensive strength is their post defense with Duncan/Splitter. The Thunder run post plays on just 6% of their plays and the majority of the time, it's Kevin Durant in the post and Leonard will have a tough time stopping him there. When Ibaka does get the ball down low, he will normally face up the defender so it's not your traditional style post up play that SA is very good against. The Thunder never run any post plays for Perkins. OKC is a very good offensively running isolation plays and I think they will have a lot of success tonight. Westbrook should be able to get whatever he wants with the smaller, weaker Parker on him. Ibaka shot 52.5% from the field and averaged a double-double against the Spurs last year and I think he will have success against the slower bigs in Duncan/Splitter. They will have a very tough time coming way out on the perimeter to contest his jump shots and he will be able to drive by them when they do come way out. Durant obviously is always going to put up numbers and none of the Spurs defenders in Leonard/Green/Belinelli can check him.
The Thunder are a team that play very well when rested. Over the last 3 years, they are 22-4 straight up with 2-3 days rest. They are a young, athletic team so they can be very hard to stop when coming in fresh to these games. Westbrook was given the night off against Utah last game as well so he will be ready to go. This is just their 3rd game in 9 nights and they have not taken a single flight in 10 days. Being at home allows them to be able to get in a lot of practices. The Spurs on the other hand are not so rested playing their 4th game in 6 nights. They are a team that play much better when rested as well.
The Thunder have had a lot of success against the Spurs playing in OKC winning the last 5 straight by an average of +11.8 points per game. The starters on these teams are the same. The benches have changed a bit. OKC's bench has impressed me especially at home where they ranked 3rd In efficiency difference. The bench is shooting 49% at home while allowing just 40.8% to their opponents. Lamb has been giving them a scoring punch and he stretches the defense with his outside shooting. Reggie Jackson started in last years playoff and gained some good experience. He's one of the best back up PG's in the NBA. Rookie C Steven Adams has been solid down low getting them rebounds and paint points. Fisher and Collision are two veteran players who also play well for them. I think the benches will likely cancel each other out and I think the Thunder starters just matchup well against SA and will give them an edge. I see the Thunder winning by around 7 points.
Comments
I did consider and lean towards the UNDER but instead chose to release the OKC side after my analysis of the game. The biggest reason was that the Thunders spot up defense is ranked 19th and they have had some games where they have given up a lot of points via 3 pointers and that's obviously an area that SA excels in. So that kind of pushed me away form the total. I was also banking pretty hard on Parker to continue his struggles from the field against OKC and he did going 6-16 (37%) but he still worried me in this game and I knew he could potentially have a good game. I was just highly confident of the type of effort I was going to get from OKC for 4 quarters. I also just in general play sides more than totals.