Expected Value for NHL - Am I doing this right?
Fat Polamalu
Senior Member
Alright smart folks. Tell me if I'm doing something wrong here.
Tonight's NHL Matchup.
ANA +107 --> converts to ANA 2.07
DAL -116 --> converts to DAL 1.86
I believe there is a 50.25% chance that Anaheim wins, and there is a 33.28% chance that Dallas wins.
So..
ANA 2.07 x .5025 = 1.040175
DAL 1.86 x .3328 = 0.619008
Anything over 1.00 is positive EV (and a bigger edge) while anything below 1.00 is negative EV (and a smaller edge?).
Is that right? Educate me.
Tonight's NHL Matchup.
ANA +107 --> converts to ANA 2.07
DAL -116 --> converts to DAL 1.86
I believe there is a 50.25% chance that Anaheim wins, and there is a 33.28% chance that Dallas wins.
So..
ANA 2.07 x .5025 = 1.040175
DAL 1.86 x .3328 = 0.619008
Anything over 1.00 is positive EV (and a bigger edge) while anything below 1.00 is negative EV (and a smaller edge?).
Is that right? Educate me.
Comments
33.28% chance Dallas wins.
What happens the other 16.47% of the time? Is this a regulation bet?