Betting Talk

Expected Value for NHL - Am I doing this right?

Fat PolamaluFat Polamalu Senior Member
edited November 2013 in Sports Betting
Alright smart folks. Tell me if I'm doing something wrong here.

Tonight's NHL Matchup.

ANA +107 --> converts to ANA 2.07
DAL -116 --> converts to DAL 1.86

I believe there is a 50.25% chance that Anaheim wins, and there is a 33.28% chance that Dallas wins.

So..

ANA 2.07 x .5025 = 1.040175
DAL 1.86 x .3328 = 0.619008

Anything over 1.00 is positive EV (and a bigger edge) while anything below 1.00 is negative EV (and a smaller edge?).

Is that right? Educate me.

Comments

  • High3rEl3m3ntHigh3rEl3m3nt Junior Member
    edited November 2013
    50.25% chance Anaheim wins
    33.28% chance Dallas wins.

    What happens the other 16.47% of the time? Is this a regulation bet?
  • High3rEl3m3ntHigh3rEl3m3nt Junior Member
    edited November 2013
    EV = (Probability of Winning * Amount to Win) – (Probability of Losing * Amount Wagered) (Saturdayedge, 2013).
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