Claims Against the Line vs. ML

cabster13

I am following a capper that has offered a free two weeks of college basketball. Through the last 4 days he is 15-1 but he plays 3 out of 4 plays each day against the morning line. Those ML plays have ranged anywhere from -130 to -320. He is touting 15-1 against the line. Is that a correct claim when some of the winners have not covered the line but have covered against the ML?? Don't get me wrong... against the ML he has been hot but if your getting up to 8 points vs. the line not sure I have ever seen a capper play that many CBB plays againt the ML.

baseRunner

I could be wrong here, but it's my understanding that the spread is essentially a derivative of the ML and the total. So if you assume that the total for the game was 100% accurate, and that the spread derivative was priced correctly, then one quick thing you could do is just check how often the teams he picked on the ML covered. You could also consider using the adjusted win % formula (I pulled this from Stevie Y's site, and it's easy to see how it's derived):

(net units + (1.1 * total bets))/2.1)/total bets

BigKahuna

A few thoughts.
1. Playing -300 in college hoops is sooner or later going to be expensive.
2. If he does a lot of ML , you have to evaluate his record like a baseball record with net units . Also ROI
3. If he gave the play as only as a ML play and not as a line wager his record would be correct.

durito

Check the released ml vs the closing ml, same as with the spread.