SweetJones55 NBA Play
sweetjones55
Senior Member
So the last time I posted a play on here, I just posted my thoughts without the line because I had played the game before posting on here and it had moved so I didn't want to post a line that wasn't available.
I will be releasing a play to my clients and posting it on here at the same time at 10:17AM ET. A decent amount of my releases have had some instant market influence so I will update that if it's the case on this play as well. I will release one free play every two weeks or so on here.
I will be releasing a play to my clients and posting it on here at the same time at 10:17AM ET. A decent amount of my releases have had some instant market influence so I will update that if it's the case on this play as well. I will release one free play every two weeks or so on here.
Comments
Movements at Pinnacle...
11/13 10:19 AM 208½ -107 208½ -103
11/13 10:19 AM 208 -113 208 +102
11/13 10:18 AM 208 -109 208 -101
11/13 09:29 AM 208 -105 208 -105
11/13 08:45 AM 208 -107 208 -10
Yes, it just seemed that for some reason the lines early on were relatively sharp for week 1 lines . The 1-5 start wasn't good but I am very happy at +4.8 Units and 10-7 59% after the slow start.
The reason that I don't have a set release time is because on some games I know the peak line value will be in the morning and then others I know the line will only get better waiting later into the day at say 4PM ET. So by not having a set release time, I believe it leads to a higher volume of plays and better line value as well for my clients. I do always send out the plays well in advance of the game start time and have the release warning before each play to help.
As for the writeups, I do think I will cut down on them this season and probably do away with them all together in the very near future.
1-0 +1u +1CLV last night.
I created separate threads prior but all my future plays will just be kept in here for organizations sake. I will post up another free play in two weeks.
Your website lists your 2009/2010 NBA Regular Season as 182-120-6 with +76 units. You played a lot of moneyline favorites, and also bought points in several spots or played quarter/half lines that were juiced higher than -110. You also make a comment in your SBR thread from 2009-2010 that you weren't tracking Units that season. How did you come up with the "+76 units" after the fact?
Anytime I played a moneyline favorite, I would not add the win/loss to the record, only the units won. All my standard sized plays were 1unit and I stated I would put 5 units on the game I labeled heavy so that's how I came up with the units won. I ran extremely well with my 5 unit plays that season. My unit scale is now 1-3.
Is there any way to have my plays be independently tracked on here without me having to post it up prior? I post the plays at tip on my website every night but wanted to supplement that with another 3rd party tracking.
No, we are neither a tracking site nor a site for free advertising. Thanks for understanding.
Yes, he is tracking every play of mine and updating every morning (or at least always tries to and has so far). The link to the excel spreadsheet with all my plays/info is below.
https://skydrive.live.com/view.aspx?cid=c45467016f6cf879&id=documents&resid=C45467016F6CF879%21150&app=Excel&authkey=!AK0XvD7fyoQ3Q7M&
So you were either betting one unit for a standard play or five times the standard amount on every heavy game? Did you assign these values before the season started, during the season, or afterwards? Also, why did you say in the SBR thread that you weren't tracking units if you actually were?
If you lost a -230 favorite play, was that -2.3 units on your record or -1? If you won was it +1 unit or +0.435?
Yes at the time I had just begun posting plays and was an amateur and I had read it was completely fine to put 5% of your bankroll on plays so I would. I had said early in the year that I was doing this. When I said I wasn't tracking units, I meant as in each day I wasn't updating my record with the associated units up or down. I knew where I was at always but just updated the w/l. I did spend a lot of time working to come up with my plays but it was just a hobby at the time.
1) on your website, you carve out the playoffs from every season but the 2012-13 season....any particular reason for that?
2) Do you really believe you are in the same class as Billy Walters, as evidenced by this quote from your website?
3) finally....since you appear to have pretty specific figures from those early season, even while being an amateur, why don't you post those records for all to see and we can reconcile the "+76 units" for ourselves.....I would think that that transparency would be some huge p.r. for you.
You seem genuine about wanting third party validation, which is commendable, so what I would do in your shoes would be to directly submit your plays at the time of your release to the third party. Talk to the admin there and come to an arrangement of how your clv will be tracked- for instance, it would make sense for your tracked releases to stick to sides and totals exclusively, and have the line value computed separately for each, using an agreed upon definition of consensus lines. Furthermore, I would submit only your full game or first half plays for tracking, and preferably only those that are released at least a few hours before game time, so that a clear picture of your average line value can be derived. Props, second halves, etc are really not reasonable to assume that a follower can play with any reliability, and makes measuring your performance against the market pretty much impossible.
My opinions above are based on what my own criteria look like when determining whether to collaborate with someone.
In any case, good for you for at least stepping up and submitting to third party verification- not many have the balls for that. And GL this year.
1) My playoff record last year was 14-6 (70%) +10.21 UNITS. I will have to have that edited in, looks like it was just taken out to make room for this years record.
2) I don't believe I am in the same class as Billy Walters. I have maintained a high win rate over the last 4 years but I have been much more selective. He puts in huge volume and has been doing it for much longer than myself.
3) I am working on building those archives. The threads on SBR still exist to this day with everything time stamped.
this seems like a reasonable request to me. if you are comfortable enough to quote a track record to entice the public to pay you for picks, I would think having accurate backup data for that track record is a minimal requirement in exchange for their hard earned dollars. Also, would be curious for the subset of which you are quoting here "SweetJones55 has compiled the best tracked NBA record on-line for any handicapper, amateur or professional. In the last 700+ plays, he has hit 59%. He also possesses the best tracked playoff record for the same period" that is a pretty confident line for such a large population.
Advisor Tracking is getting my plays directly from me at the same time that I release out to my clients. He needs to update that page because we agreed to this last week. If you look at the excel spreadsheet, it has all my plays broken down into 1st half, Game, Totals etc.
Yeah on Head fakes :laugh:
Thanks for answering 1 and 2....but the answer for three is not going to cut it....for one, you started the SBR in the middle of a season. Where did you post prior to bringing that figure over mid-season? Secondly, regardless of "everything being time-stamped", the thread does not indicate the number of units involved per play to reconcile the "+76 units" figure. Surely if you are quoting such an exact figure then the archives don't need to be "built", you could just scan and link them - even if they are rudimentary and kept in some format as simple as legal pad scratch sheets.
TIA - this honesty can only help whatever it is you are trying to accomplish here at BT.
Thanks, didn't see that tab. Obviously your initial record keeping from previous years is going to set off some alarms, but I can see how if you started recreationally you wouldn't have cared much. It looks like you're going about your record keeping the right way now, but you really need to clean up your website if you want to be taken seriously. I'd switch to a standard one unit system for all plays, recalculate all of your archived records from previous years using this grading, and get rid of that gigantic "59%" on the front page, for starters. Under your current grading system, that 59% is basically meaningless anyway, so why not just throw it out and start on a blank slate doing it the right way? If you're really a long term winner (and your line value for year to date seems to indicate that you are), then a 100 game record that includes clv is far more valuable to your reputation than a 1000 game record which can be called into question in a myriad of ways (as you've already seen at this forum). So just scrap it.
I think it would also make sense to keep records of all your current season plays on your own site. Your list of this season's plays on the front page of your site is impossible for me to understand. I don't mean any offense by this, but if I were in the market to pay for plays, I would 100% assume based on your current website that you were a scam artist.
I agree with most everything your saying and will work on the website. We are right in the thick of things in the middle of the NBA Season so I really have to be 100% focused on the league and staying on top of it so it will take some time but I will get it done. Thank you for the well thought out input, very much appreciated.
No problem- good luck this year.
Too soon for me to have an opinion on his record, but his market value so far tells me he's likely not a coin flipper. And I can see why you'd want to build your roll as fast as possible when starting. If that means selling picks, then fine. But so long as you know you deliver, there's no ethical violation just from selling to people, IMO.
why bother with this? - because he is looking to show people he is successful so he can get more subscriptions to his service. it is not charity.
I am going to take you at your word and assume you are as advertised - this blows my mind, exactly why non-transparent, cutting of the corner records work.
Why deal with all the doubters, whiny customers, emails etc? - i am asking about his record because i would like to know if he is legitimate before i hand over my money or bet based on his track record. if that makes me a "doubter" than i am a doubter. doesnt mean i will always be a doubter and cant change my opinion (although i "doubt" i will in this case).
i will say that his record could be legitimate or it could not be. if he doesnt have the backup its not a big deal. if he is confident enough to solicit subscriptions he should be confident enough to track his record going forward and prove that he is worth the price of admission. to his credit, he seems open about this going forward. i would also like to say this is the reason jalapanose questions everything - because there are too many believers and too few people to check work (in general).
assuming he can find a couple hundred 55%+ bets against a large market like NBA, he should be able to find thousands against smaller markets and spin that roll up real quick. it can be done, i've seen it.