Betting Talk

Buffettgambler NBA/College Sports Thread

buffettgamblerbuffettgambler Senior Handicapper
edited April 2014 in Sports Betting
Will post some stuff periodically

NBA 11/13
703 Hou/Phi Over 206 -110
706 Cha/Bos Under 193 -110
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Comments

  • buffettgamblerbuffettgambler Senior Handicapper
    edited November 2013
    NCAAF 11/16
    402 SDST/HAW Under 59 -110
  • buffettgamblerbuffettgambler Senior Handicapper
    edited November 2013
    NCAAF 11/16
    319 Indiana +27 -110
  • buffettgamblerbuffettgambler Senior Handicapper
    edited November 2013
    NCAAF 11/16
    341 Michigan/Northwestern Over 49 -110
  • buffettgamblerbuffettgambler Senior Handicapper
    edited November 2013
    NCAAF 11/23
    166 Utah St -7 -107
    204 Mississippi +3 -117
    207 Boise State -7 -110
    NCAAF YTD 1-2 -1.1
  • buffettgamblerbuffettgambler Senior Handicapper
    edited November 2013
    Adding
    NCAAF 11/23
    121 Pittsburgh +1 -110
  • buffettgamblerbuffettgambler Senior Handicapper
    edited November 2013
    NCAAF 11/29
    328 Ark/LSU Under 54.5 -110

    NCAAF 11/30
    359 Purdue +21 -110
    391 Baylor -11.5 -110
    YTD 3-4 -1.37
  • buffettgamblerbuffettgambler Senior Handicapper
    edited November 2013
    Adding
    NCAAF 11/30
    371 South Alabama -7 -110
  • Gordon GekkoGordon Gekko Senior Member
    edited November 2013
    Happy thanksgiving,
    And to continued success!
  • Gordon GekkoGordon Gekko Senior Member
    edited November 2013
    Happy thanksgiving,
    And to continued success! 💵
  • buffettgamblerbuffettgambler Senior Handicapper
    edited November 2013
    NBA 11/30
    701 Atl/Was Over 192.5 -110
    2-0 +2
  • buffettgamblerbuffettgambler Senior Handicapper
    edited November 2013
    Adding
    NCAAF 11/30
    399 Penn State +25 -110
  • buffettgamblerbuffettgambler Senior Handicapper
    edited December 2013
    NCAAF 12/7
    127 Ohio State -5 -110
    YTD: 6-6 -.57
  • buffettgamblerbuffettgambler Senior Handicapper
    edited December 2013
    NBA 12/4
    712 Ind/Utah Under 189 -110
    YTD: 3-0 +3
  • buffettgamblerbuffettgambler Senior Handicapper
    edited December 2013
    Adding
    NBA 12/4
    714 Minnesota +3.5 -110
  • Rip007Rip007 Banned
    edited December 2013
    nice job in the Nfl Sunday BG,. Thank You........ Peaceful and Healthy Holidays ! to you and all
  • duritodurito Senior Member
    edited December 2013
    buffettgambler wrote: »
    Adding
    NBA 12/4
    714 Minnesota +3.5 -110

    4.5 seems way out of line with recent minnesota prices. What's going on?
  • sweetjones55sweetjones55 Senior Member
    edited December 2013
    durito wrote: »
    4.5 seems way out of line with recent minnesota prices. What's going on?

    Game is in Mexico City.
  • EscootEscoot Senior Member
    edited December 2013
    durito wrote: »
    4.5 seems way out of line with recent minnesota prices. What's going on?

    74ec336f831901a00dcfbc2a8fa6ec19f5001cb8c9daa4ab6adc5aafe7f7b4a9.jpg
    is this why?
  • jzjz Member
    edited December 2013
    buffettgambler wrote: »
    Adding
    NBA 12/4
    714 Minnesota +3.5 -110

    quick question: when the market moves against you as it has here, do you lose confidence and/or reconsider your valuations? I'm am new to the nba and am very unfamiliar with the market and what drives price changes at different times.

    thanks for sharing and gl
  • duritodurito Senior Member
    edited December 2013
    sweetjones55 wrote: »
    Game is in Mexico City.

    ah, lol that would explain it, thanks
  • buffettgamblerbuffettgambler Senior Handicapper
    edited December 2013
    durito wrote: »
    ah, lol that would explain it, thanks

    3's were baseline, so the move up to 4.5's-5's is a move out of market range. The in-game matchup should be supportive towards any move off baseline towards the Wolves, and this is not a typical style play to which the market will stretch out the Spurs valuation.

    This may be the onset of a market attempt to stick a new valuation the Wolves since the market value and quality of play by the Wolves is really starting to diverge.
  • buffettgamblerbuffettgambler Senior Handicapper
    edited December 2013
    jz wrote: »
    quick question: when the market moves against you as it has here, do you lose confidence and/or reconsider your valuations? I'm am new to the nba and am very unfamiliar with the market and what drives price changes at different times.

    thanks for sharing and gl

    Market moves against effect timing more than valuation. It may be time be taking a more cynical approach to moves of out of market range that don't appear to be onsets of structural shifts on market valuations. Atl/Was market move on the total the other day was a good example. If market moves appear to be structural, I will reassess.
  • jaybiz773jaybiz773 Senior Member
    edited December 2013
    buffettgambler wrote: »
    3's were baseline, so the move up to 4.5's-5's is a move out of market range. The in-game matchup should be supportive towards any move off baseline towards the Wolves, and this is not a typical style play to which the market will stretch out the Spurs valuation.

    This may be the onset of a market attempt to stick a new valuation the Wolves since the market value and quality of play by the Wolves is really starting to diverge.

    Well given market recency on after-effects of end of game quality drop and the over used inefficient tempo disparity relative to non-end-of-game situational variance not sure I agree with your assessment on the "new valuation" of this team.
  • TotallyTiltTotallyTilt Senior Member
    edited December 2013
    BG, do you think the game being played in Mexico City has any impact on the line? And if so, how do you think it impacts it?

    Thanks in advance for the help.
  • LancerLancer Senior Member
    edited December 2013
    am i the only one that has no clue what bg said in his reply, lol?? so is Minny still a play? or, are you saying the line went out of mkt range so now it's a no play??
  • DubbsDubbs Senior Member
    edited December 2013
    Lancer wrote: »
    am i the only one that has no clue what bg said in his reply, lol?? so is Minny still a play? or, are you saying the line went out of mkt range so now it's a no play??


    I believe he was speaking in Spanish since the game is in Mexico City.
  • BuckyBadgerBuckyBadger Senior Member
    edited December 2013
    jaybiz773 wrote: »
    Well given market recency on after-effects of end of game quality drop and the over used inefficient tempo disparity relative to non-end-of-game situational variance not sure I agree with your assessment on the "new valuation" of this team.

    I'm with Lancer--I often feel I need an interpreter after reading some of BG's explanations and the resulting concomitant responses
  • buffettgamblerbuffettgambler Senior Handicapper
    edited December 2013
    TotallyTilt wrote: »
    BG, do you think the game being played in Mexico City has any impact on the line? And if so, how do you think it impacts it?

    Thanks in advance for the help.
    Base HFA obviously not incorporated into the line. Any non-base HFA move should likely favor the Wolves.
  • duritodurito Senior Member
    edited December 2013
    I was asking him about the market valuation on the T-Wolves, which may be completely different than his own valuation which recommended a play.

    Market valuations can be derived from closing spreads in recent games. Consider a basic example with a league of 3 teams all playing neutral site games. On Monday A is -4 vs B. On Tuesday B is -3 vs C. From this would infer that the market suggests A is around 7 pts better than C. Obviously this doesn't take into account a myriad of other factors one would need in order to make an informed wager. However it's a useful tool to see how market valuations are changing on specific teams over time.
  • Gordon GekkoGordon Gekko Senior Member
    edited December 2013
    Meaning: TWolves lost 4 out of last 5, San Antonio 15-3 . Both playing with same team, but one team struggling so market shifts to a larger spread, however teams haven't changed. TWolves recent losses vs 2,4,5,7th ranked teams. 1 extra day rest and unknowing public better may see this game as home game for San Antonio. I sprinkled a little ML. This is my take on the situational market.
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