SweetJones55 NBA Writeup TWolves-Lakers
sweetjones55
Senior Member
I like Minnesota's chances today on the road against the LA Lakers...
I think the linesmakers are giving the Lakers too much credit and I think it's because of two reasons. I think one reason is that they are 3-4 and have looked somewhat competitive so far. I think the second reason is just because they are the "Lakers" playing at home. Their wins have not really impressed me all that much so far. In their last win, the Lakers played @Houston. LA built up a 19 point lead in the 1st half and went into the half up 14. I thought the 1st half performance from LA was just pure variance. They hit a ton of 3 pointers in this game knocking down 16-35 (46%) and still only managed to win the game by 1 point. Normally when you hit 16 3's, you win a blowout but the Lakers didn't. LA only scored 35 points in the 2nd half after scoring 64 points in the 1st half. They completely unraveled. Their previous win before that was against the Hawks. Atlanta is currently 3-3 and was not in a great form going into that game. LA built up a 22 point lead and again completely blew it and only ended up winning the game by 2 points. They were very fortunate Atlanta shot 14-26 (54%) from the free throw line if not they would have taken the home loss. Their other win this season was the 1st game of the year against the LA Clippers. The Clippers led after the 1st, 2nd and 3rd quarter before they completely gave the game away giving up 41 points to the Lakers in the 4Q. The Clippers currently are big time struggling on defense and it was very evident in this 1st game. The Lakers made 14-29 (48%) from 3 in this game, they normally won't shoot nearly that well.
The Lakers team is filled with players of about the same talent level and it's not very high. This creates the issue of who to start on a nightly basis and makes it very tough to allocate the minutes. So far, the Lakers have had 6 different starting lineups in 7 games. First they stated out with Shawne, Young, Gasol, Nash and Blake. The next game they substituted Meeks for Nash. The game after that they substituted Xavier Henry in for Young. The game after that they reinstated Nash in for Meeks. The game after that they gave up on Shawne and went with Kaman. Then in their last game they abandoned Nash again on a back to back and went with Meeks. This should prove very costly as the Lakers don't have one starting 5 that has played two games in a row together yet. Meanwhile, the Timberwolves have had the same 5 starters and bench rotation in every single game so far.
The Wolves are currently 4-2 and have impressed me so far this year. They beat an Orlando team that looks to be a lot better than people thought. They pounded OKC by 19 points, albeit without Westbrook, but still a solid performance. They also went on the road to play NY who was in desperate need of a win and they led from start to finish. They did lose on a back to back in a a very bad spot against the Cavaliers by 1 point but they actually covered the spread as they were +1.5 Their only bad performance came against GS when they lost by 13 but the Warriors came out playing very well this season and I don't really discredit Minnesota for this loss. Minnesota bounced back Friday with a good win against the Mavericks by 8 points. They did lose their previous two games before that so I think they will still be very motivated playing in LAL tonight.
Minnesota has a big talent advantage over the Lakers. I believe the TWolves have the two best players on the court from either team in PF Kevin Love and SG Kevin Martin. I think people forgot over the off-season how good Love is and he has not been getting the credit he deserves thsufar. He's averaging 27 points, 15 rebounds and 5 assists. If he can keep that up, then he will definitely run away with the MVP. Kevin Love went to school in UCLA so I expect him to really go all out in this game with friends/family in attendance. SG Kevin Martin is a perfect fit in this uptempo Minnesota offense. He has thrived averaging 23ppg on 46% shooting from the field and a ridiculous 57% from 3's. Martin is one of the best players in the NBA at drawing fouls and can get opponents into foul trouble and in the penalty quickly. It's very arguable that Minnesota may even have the 3rd best player on the court as well in Nkola Pekovich. He's averaging very close to a double-double at 12 points, 9.4 rebounds. He also gets to the free throw line and makes them at 77%. He's a very big, strong body and takes up space in the lane. SF Corey Brewer was a great addition to this team as well and he's averaging 14ppg on 48% shooting. Brewer is a one man fast break and a very efficient one at that. Rubio has been the only disappointment on the starting 5 averaging 8ppg but on just 38% shooting. He's doing okay passing the ball at 8 assists per game. The TWolves do have a very productive, serviceable backup in PG JJ Barea. He's very good in pick and roll dissecting defense and getting the ball to open shooters. He's also a very streaky scorer that can get points in bunches. PF Dante Cunningham plays his role very well taking open shots only and rebounding decently. He had his best game of the season last game getting 6points on 3-6 shooting along with 7 rebounds, 3assists, 1 block and 1 steal. He's a career 48% shooter.
The individual player match ups highly favor the Timberwolves. PF Kevin Love should dominate against the less agile, slower Gasol. Gasol is not capable of covering anyone out at the 3 point line. The only other option they have is Chris Kaman who also can't guard that far out. Love should have a monster game for the Timberwolves. SG Kevin Martin should also have a big game. The Lakers are currently starting Jodie Meeks at SG. There is absolutely no way he can run around chasing Kevin Martin all game and do so effectively. Martin is just a much better player and Meeks is a horrible defender. The Lakers may try Steve Blake on Martin as well but he has a 4 inch height advantage on him. Martin will be able to easily shoot over him and should be able to get to the free throw line. The Lakers SF is Nick Young who is actually a SG. He can not cover the stronger, much faster Corey Brewer. Young is a very lazy defender and he definitely won't get back in transition to stop Corey. At the C position, Pekovich is much stronger and should be able to score on Kaman. Kaman is not a good defender and should struggle stopping him. Kaman at 7ft is only averaging 6 rebounds a game as well. Gasol is not a great rebounder and Blake, Meeks and Young are bad rebouders as well. Love, Pekovich and Brewer should get their fair share of offensive rebounds in this game. I see the Timberwolves winning this game by around 6-8 points.
I think the linesmakers are giving the Lakers too much credit and I think it's because of two reasons. I think one reason is that they are 3-4 and have looked somewhat competitive so far. I think the second reason is just because they are the "Lakers" playing at home. Their wins have not really impressed me all that much so far. In their last win, the Lakers played @Houston. LA built up a 19 point lead in the 1st half and went into the half up 14. I thought the 1st half performance from LA was just pure variance. They hit a ton of 3 pointers in this game knocking down 16-35 (46%) and still only managed to win the game by 1 point. Normally when you hit 16 3's, you win a blowout but the Lakers didn't. LA only scored 35 points in the 2nd half after scoring 64 points in the 1st half. They completely unraveled. Their previous win before that was against the Hawks. Atlanta is currently 3-3 and was not in a great form going into that game. LA built up a 22 point lead and again completely blew it and only ended up winning the game by 2 points. They were very fortunate Atlanta shot 14-26 (54%) from the free throw line if not they would have taken the home loss. Their other win this season was the 1st game of the year against the LA Clippers. The Clippers led after the 1st, 2nd and 3rd quarter before they completely gave the game away giving up 41 points to the Lakers in the 4Q. The Clippers currently are big time struggling on defense and it was very evident in this 1st game. The Lakers made 14-29 (48%) from 3 in this game, they normally won't shoot nearly that well.
The Lakers team is filled with players of about the same talent level and it's not very high. This creates the issue of who to start on a nightly basis and makes it very tough to allocate the minutes. So far, the Lakers have had 6 different starting lineups in 7 games. First they stated out with Shawne, Young, Gasol, Nash and Blake. The next game they substituted Meeks for Nash. The game after that they substituted Xavier Henry in for Young. The game after that they reinstated Nash in for Meeks. The game after that they gave up on Shawne and went with Kaman. Then in their last game they abandoned Nash again on a back to back and went with Meeks. This should prove very costly as the Lakers don't have one starting 5 that has played two games in a row together yet. Meanwhile, the Timberwolves have had the same 5 starters and bench rotation in every single game so far.
The Wolves are currently 4-2 and have impressed me so far this year. They beat an Orlando team that looks to be a lot better than people thought. They pounded OKC by 19 points, albeit without Westbrook, but still a solid performance. They also went on the road to play NY who was in desperate need of a win and they led from start to finish. They did lose on a back to back in a a very bad spot against the Cavaliers by 1 point but they actually covered the spread as they were +1.5 Their only bad performance came against GS when they lost by 13 but the Warriors came out playing very well this season and I don't really discredit Minnesota for this loss. Minnesota bounced back Friday with a good win against the Mavericks by 8 points. They did lose their previous two games before that so I think they will still be very motivated playing in LAL tonight.
Minnesota has a big talent advantage over the Lakers. I believe the TWolves have the two best players on the court from either team in PF Kevin Love and SG Kevin Martin. I think people forgot over the off-season how good Love is and he has not been getting the credit he deserves thsufar. He's averaging 27 points, 15 rebounds and 5 assists. If he can keep that up, then he will definitely run away with the MVP. Kevin Love went to school in UCLA so I expect him to really go all out in this game with friends/family in attendance. SG Kevin Martin is a perfect fit in this uptempo Minnesota offense. He has thrived averaging 23ppg on 46% shooting from the field and a ridiculous 57% from 3's. Martin is one of the best players in the NBA at drawing fouls and can get opponents into foul trouble and in the penalty quickly. It's very arguable that Minnesota may even have the 3rd best player on the court as well in Nkola Pekovich. He's averaging very close to a double-double at 12 points, 9.4 rebounds. He also gets to the free throw line and makes them at 77%. He's a very big, strong body and takes up space in the lane. SF Corey Brewer was a great addition to this team as well and he's averaging 14ppg on 48% shooting. Brewer is a one man fast break and a very efficient one at that. Rubio has been the only disappointment on the starting 5 averaging 8ppg but on just 38% shooting. He's doing okay passing the ball at 8 assists per game. The TWolves do have a very productive, serviceable backup in PG JJ Barea. He's very good in pick and roll dissecting defense and getting the ball to open shooters. He's also a very streaky scorer that can get points in bunches. PF Dante Cunningham plays his role very well taking open shots only and rebounding decently. He had his best game of the season last game getting 6points on 3-6 shooting along with 7 rebounds, 3assists, 1 block and 1 steal. He's a career 48% shooter.
The individual player match ups highly favor the Timberwolves. PF Kevin Love should dominate against the less agile, slower Gasol. Gasol is not capable of covering anyone out at the 3 point line. The only other option they have is Chris Kaman who also can't guard that far out. Love should have a monster game for the Timberwolves. SG Kevin Martin should also have a big game. The Lakers are currently starting Jodie Meeks at SG. There is absolutely no way he can run around chasing Kevin Martin all game and do so effectively. Martin is just a much better player and Meeks is a horrible defender. The Lakers may try Steve Blake on Martin as well but he has a 4 inch height advantage on him. Martin will be able to easily shoot over him and should be able to get to the free throw line. The Lakers SF is Nick Young who is actually a SG. He can not cover the stronger, much faster Corey Brewer. Young is a very lazy defender and he definitely won't get back in transition to stop Corey. At the C position, Pekovich is much stronger and should be able to score on Kaman. Kaman is not a good defender and should struggle stopping him. Kaman at 7ft is only averaging 6 rebounds a game as well. Gasol is not a great rebounder and Blake, Meeks and Young are bad rebouders as well. Love, Pekovich and Brewer should get their fair share of offensive rebounds in this game. I see the Timberwolves winning this game by around 6-8 points.
Comments
Sweet thread bump tho
It took me about 30 minutes to write. I graduated from University of Miami but they didn't teach this stuff there, no.
Up to -4 now.
There's no info in there that would suggest a market edge, that's for sure. And yes to your 2nd question. More of a scam artist imo, specializing in dishonest record keeping.
The no listed line was a nice touch, next level shit indeed
Tilt, Me and the good doctor don't get along you know that and you know his 500 posts is not his true number but he makes sense. To me it looks like bits and pieces put together from newsletters. Don't get me wrong I'm not bashing the guy just take it for what it's worth. Anyone worth his weight doesn't do what is that 500 words.
What is dishonest in the record keeping?
There's no line which usually is required to determine if the bet is a winner or loser.
As should be apparent right now to fellow members of this board, you are an NBA handicapper who sells his picks. According to your own records you're a 59% capper over the last 4 years. You have not had a losing season over those same 4 years. As you've taken the time to write some pretty extensive analysis on predicting the outcome of a couple of games, my suggestion and question is: Why not post all your picks here on Bettingtalk. Of course you don't have to post them in advance of the games. Right at tip-off would do. You would squash all doubters and gain some clients. I believe we have some members here who are subscribed to your service already, so they can compare the lines you give in advance to the line which you post here. There would also be a possibility to track your CLV. I hope RAS allows this to happen, I'm very interested in how you would do if monitored a full season, transparently here on BT.
Best of luck this season.
Dr H- seems like you could do the board a favor and let them know what exactly you know if there is any validity to it. If going to slander someone at least lets get some meat to it.
As far as the writeup goes there is content that looks of note/interest but I think you could probably cut a lot of the filler out and save everyone (mostly yourself) a lot of time.
I release widely available -110 lines for every game and it's posted at tip on my website. I made a play on Minnesota -3 tonight and you can go to my site and at the bottom it will be posted on there once the game starts.
All my NBA releases are causing an immediate market reaction of a 0.5 to full point within 5 minutes and sometimes even less than a minute on the games I play. I do have a subjective approach to handicapping and it has worked for me over the last 4 years and I will continue to do the same things until it stops working.
If I am allowed, I will post up one free play on here and put it out at the same time here as when I send out to my clients so that you guys can see the instant market reaction to my release.
I see you have the record on your website, but any reason why you dont list what the games / picks were ? Might help add credibilty and increase subscirber base.
Scroll to the bottom of my site and every play for this year is on there. I hired someone last week to start tracking my CLV, market reaction, ROI, archive and just basically organize all my plays.
Proof before slandering someone from the good Dr. ? Zero chance ! No posts after that request I see.
Keep going SJ continued success, but you should throw up whatever line is available at the time of your post. Good luck.
He's been caught fabricating lines and records at sbr and 2p2. If that's not the case on his site so be it, but history would suggest otherwise. That only now he is hiring someone to 'organize' his records says plenty.
I have always tracked my plays and updated my records. ROI, CLV, etc is something that I did not do because it's time consuming and I spend all my time researching, watching games and doing the actual things necessary to win for my clients.