Spurs/Nuggets NBA Writeup
sweetjones55
Senior Member
I like the Spurs chances tonight on the road against Denver.
I think the Nuggets are lost right now as team and are not ready to compete with arguably the best team in the West in the Spurs. Denver over the off-season hired a new coach in Brian Shaw. Shaw wants this team to play more of a half-court game which I believe is a huge mistake since they do not have the personnel to do so. PG Ty Lawson is not getting along with Shaw early on and has aired his frustration about the new offense to Shaw. "Coach told me he wanted me to be aggressive. And I told him, 'Well, where do you want me to go?' How am I going to be aggressive if I beat my man, and then I have to beat the defender of our big in the lane, if he's standing in the way?" Lawson said. "The level of frustration was pretty high." Lawson is the leader and best player on this team and I think if he's unhappy that the team will struggle to have success on the court. Shaw really wants to go to the post a lot but I don't even think the players he has are good post-up players. PF Kenneth Faried and C Javale McGee are not good just catching the ball in the post and trying make a move to score on their own. I believe these guys need to be fed the ball in order to score efficiently. Neither are good passes out of the past either as they have no experience doing so. Shaw started PG Ty Lawson, SG Randy Foye, SF Anthony Randolph, PF JJ Hickson and C Javale McGee. That is just a very ood-ball line up playing a oversized, not so talented SF in Randolph and benching PF Kenneth Faried for PF JJ Hickson. The Nuggets did not look good in pre-season going 2-5 and started out the year 0-2 losing to the Kings and getting blown out by a really bad road team in the Blazers. Shaw now two games in is changing the line up again and I think the synergy with the rotations that wasn't good to begin with is going to be thrown way off tonight.
The Spurs are in a really good spot going into this game. Over the last two season, San Antonio is 26-3 straight up on 2 days of rest. For the most part, I ignore these kind of stats unless I really think it's something that makes sense and is correlated. In this case, I don't think that record on two days rest is randomness as I think a rested up Spurs team with some older players in Parker, Manu and Duncan play better with rest and I think Popovich given ample time to prepare helps them as well. The Spurs are a tough team to beat on any given night let alone off a loss which is the case tonight as they lost to Portland in their last outing. SA went 23-6 (79%) straight up off a loss last year. The Spurs played great offensively scoring 105 points on 50% shooting last game but the Blazers were just on fire in this game making a shooting 55.6% scoring 115 points and making a ton of tough outside shots. This was the Blazers opening night home game and they played about as well as they could.
Coach Shaw wants the Nuggets to go into the post and play from inside out which I don't think will bode well for them against San Antonio. The Spurs were a top 5 team defending the post in terms of points per possession last season. I think the best example was the Grizzlies playoffs series. The Grizzlies have two dominant post players in Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph and Memphis could not win 1 game in last years playoffs against them. One of the Nuggets big strengths is offensive rebounding. Spurs were ranked 5th last year in opponent offensive rebounding % and have done a good job so far this year as well so I don't think Nuggets will create a big advantage on the glass. I think the Nuggets are going to have a heck of a time defending the Spurs high pick and roll. It's a very small sample but still not a good for them so far that the Nuggets are ranked dead last in Pick and Roll situations giving up 1.1 points per possession. They are also ranked 29th in spot up shooting defense. Tony Parker is lethal in the pick and roll and the Spurs have plenty of great spot up shooters in Parker, Ginobili, Green, Leonard, Bonner and Bellinelli. Nuggets ranked in the bottom 1/3 of the league in opponent 3pt % last season and I think the Spurs will really hurt them from the outside today. The Spurs floor spacing is second to none and I think this big Nuggets lineup will struggle to get out on shooters in time. I think the Nuggets will struggle defending just about anything the Spurs do offensively. The areas I can see the Nuggets having moderate success would be against post ups and isolation plays but the Spurs offense doesn't really do much of that. They run a offense that revolves around constant ball movement and a ton of pick and rolls.
The Nuggets lost Andre Iguodala over the off-season and also are without Wilson Chandler and Danilo Galinari who are both injured. I think this team is going to struggle for quite a while with a completely new cast of players, new coach and new offensive and defensive philosophies. The Spurs come in to Denver tonight with the same main core of players from years past in Parker, Ginobili and Duncan and great younger players in Green, Leonard, Splitter and Bellinelli. Bellinelli is coming off a big game and Ginobili has really looked great this season after struggling late last year in the Playoffs. The Spurs are much more comfortable and confident in what they are trying to do in order to win games while I think the Nuggets really have no idea what they are trying to do currently. Denver may be able to beat up on weak opponents at home but I think they will struggle for a while against the top teams in the West. I don't see the Nuggets staying within two shots of the Spurs tonight.
I think the Nuggets are lost right now as team and are not ready to compete with arguably the best team in the West in the Spurs. Denver over the off-season hired a new coach in Brian Shaw. Shaw wants this team to play more of a half-court game which I believe is a huge mistake since they do not have the personnel to do so. PG Ty Lawson is not getting along with Shaw early on and has aired his frustration about the new offense to Shaw. "Coach told me he wanted me to be aggressive. And I told him, 'Well, where do you want me to go?' How am I going to be aggressive if I beat my man, and then I have to beat the defender of our big in the lane, if he's standing in the way?" Lawson said. "The level of frustration was pretty high." Lawson is the leader and best player on this team and I think if he's unhappy that the team will struggle to have success on the court. Shaw really wants to go to the post a lot but I don't even think the players he has are good post-up players. PF Kenneth Faried and C Javale McGee are not good just catching the ball in the post and trying make a move to score on their own. I believe these guys need to be fed the ball in order to score efficiently. Neither are good passes out of the past either as they have no experience doing so. Shaw started PG Ty Lawson, SG Randy Foye, SF Anthony Randolph, PF JJ Hickson and C Javale McGee. That is just a very ood-ball line up playing a oversized, not so talented SF in Randolph and benching PF Kenneth Faried for PF JJ Hickson. The Nuggets did not look good in pre-season going 2-5 and started out the year 0-2 losing to the Kings and getting blown out by a really bad road team in the Blazers. Shaw now two games in is changing the line up again and I think the synergy with the rotations that wasn't good to begin with is going to be thrown way off tonight.
The Spurs are in a really good spot going into this game. Over the last two season, San Antonio is 26-3 straight up on 2 days of rest. For the most part, I ignore these kind of stats unless I really think it's something that makes sense and is correlated. In this case, I don't think that record on two days rest is randomness as I think a rested up Spurs team with some older players in Parker, Manu and Duncan play better with rest and I think Popovich given ample time to prepare helps them as well. The Spurs are a tough team to beat on any given night let alone off a loss which is the case tonight as they lost to Portland in their last outing. SA went 23-6 (79%) straight up off a loss last year. The Spurs played great offensively scoring 105 points on 50% shooting last game but the Blazers were just on fire in this game making a shooting 55.6% scoring 115 points and making a ton of tough outside shots. This was the Blazers opening night home game and they played about as well as they could.
Coach Shaw wants the Nuggets to go into the post and play from inside out which I don't think will bode well for them against San Antonio. The Spurs were a top 5 team defending the post in terms of points per possession last season. I think the best example was the Grizzlies playoffs series. The Grizzlies have two dominant post players in Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph and Memphis could not win 1 game in last years playoffs against them. One of the Nuggets big strengths is offensive rebounding. Spurs were ranked 5th last year in opponent offensive rebounding % and have done a good job so far this year as well so I don't think Nuggets will create a big advantage on the glass. I think the Nuggets are going to have a heck of a time defending the Spurs high pick and roll. It's a very small sample but still not a good for them so far that the Nuggets are ranked dead last in Pick and Roll situations giving up 1.1 points per possession. They are also ranked 29th in spot up shooting defense. Tony Parker is lethal in the pick and roll and the Spurs have plenty of great spot up shooters in Parker, Ginobili, Green, Leonard, Bonner and Bellinelli. Nuggets ranked in the bottom 1/3 of the league in opponent 3pt % last season and I think the Spurs will really hurt them from the outside today. The Spurs floor spacing is second to none and I think this big Nuggets lineup will struggle to get out on shooters in time. I think the Nuggets will struggle defending just about anything the Spurs do offensively. The areas I can see the Nuggets having moderate success would be against post ups and isolation plays but the Spurs offense doesn't really do much of that. They run a offense that revolves around constant ball movement and a ton of pick and rolls.
The Nuggets lost Andre Iguodala over the off-season and also are without Wilson Chandler and Danilo Galinari who are both injured. I think this team is going to struggle for quite a while with a completely new cast of players, new coach and new offensive and defensive philosophies. The Spurs come in to Denver tonight with the same main core of players from years past in Parker, Ginobili and Duncan and great younger players in Green, Leonard, Splitter and Bellinelli. Bellinelli is coming off a big game and Ginobili has really looked great this season after struggling late last year in the Playoffs. The Spurs are much more comfortable and confident in what they are trying to do in order to win games while I think the Nuggets really have no idea what they are trying to do currently. Denver may be able to beat up on weak opponents at home but I think they will struggle for a while against the top teams in the West. I don't see the Nuggets staying within two shots of the Spurs tonight.
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