2013 Football: a Benny Profane Odyssey
BennyProfane
Senior Member
People keep making weird thread titles, but I couldn't think of a good one. Still in Laughlin, need to find a way back to Vegas. Just found out that I'm going to be working with a group this season, which I'm very excited about since I've always been on my own. I'm not going to be originating anything with them, mostly putting in parlay cards, and occasionally running a straight bet. No other serious updates since I last posted something. I'm still grinding away and turning a very small profit. Lots of blackjack, and following the right posters.
For those of you familiar with me, I have written two books are pretty much unpublishable. So why not do a third. As busy as I'm going to be this football season (and I'm anticipating some pretty long workdays with irregular internet access), I'm going to try to do a great deal of writing. I'm not sure if I should do a non-fiction look at sportsbetting in southern Nevada, or if I should make it a fictional story featuring characters who...bet sports in southern Nevada and have no other hobbies. I'll probably just carry a notebook around and take notes whenever possible and post them either here or on my blog. If anyone has an opinion of which of the two options seems preferable, please let me know.
So, onto the picks. I do bet my own games, and have never had a problem being confident with opinions, even if it's something as simple as overrated favorite against underrrated underdog at a number better than pinnacle. Having said that, it's been several years since I've bet football, and I'm thinking that I'm going to be very rusty at many of the things I used to do back in the beyondcapping and before years. I just read a copy of Phil Steele's college football magazine, and I barely recognized many of the names in it, so I'm not sure how long it will take for me to find my sea legs again. My basic blueprint for betting this year is going to be to follow a small handful of people that I know, only when I agree with them while ignoring most of the other noise. Sixth Sense might be a good NFL service, but I'm not sure who to look at for college.
262 San Diego +2 (pinnacle)
Seattle looks like the most overrated team in the NFL. Every talking head seems to think that they and the 49ers are the two best teams. I've never been a fan of Pete Carroll, and SEA gets the benefit of playing in the worst division. My instincts here are that there's a significant gap between the perception and how good they really are. They're laying it on the road against a team who "needs" the game. That was how I figured it in my head, but I'm not exactly sure it's a valid angle. Touts who release preseason games always talk about certain teams "needing to win home games". IOW, if a certain team struggled the previous year, the thinking is that the coaches will take their home preseason games more seriously to improve the morale of team and fans. The flaw in this thinking is that both players and true fans know that the preseason is nothing more than a glorified practice, and the real goal should be to make sure that no starters are injured, and no secrets are given away. The point remains that heavy underdogs in preseason are something that are always worth a look. If the line on this game is -2 in San Diego, it means that the linesmaker would make it -8 if it were in Seattle. That's just too much, and San Diego should be slightly more motivated.
For those of you familiar with me, I have written two books are pretty much unpublishable. So why not do a third. As busy as I'm going to be this football season (and I'm anticipating some pretty long workdays with irregular internet access), I'm going to try to do a great deal of writing. I'm not sure if I should do a non-fiction look at sportsbetting in southern Nevada, or if I should make it a fictional story featuring characters who...bet sports in southern Nevada and have no other hobbies. I'll probably just carry a notebook around and take notes whenever possible and post them either here or on my blog. If anyone has an opinion of which of the two options seems preferable, please let me know.
So, onto the picks. I do bet my own games, and have never had a problem being confident with opinions, even if it's something as simple as overrated favorite against underrrated underdog at a number better than pinnacle. Having said that, it's been several years since I've bet football, and I'm thinking that I'm going to be very rusty at many of the things I used to do back in the beyondcapping and before years. I just read a copy of Phil Steele's college football magazine, and I barely recognized many of the names in it, so I'm not sure how long it will take for me to find my sea legs again. My basic blueprint for betting this year is going to be to follow a small handful of people that I know, only when I agree with them while ignoring most of the other noise. Sixth Sense might be a good NFL service, but I'm not sure who to look at for college.
262 San Diego +2 (pinnacle)
Seattle looks like the most overrated team in the NFL. Every talking head seems to think that they and the 49ers are the two best teams. I've never been a fan of Pete Carroll, and SEA gets the benefit of playing in the worst division. My instincts here are that there's a significant gap between the perception and how good they really are. They're laying it on the road against a team who "needs" the game. That was how I figured it in my head, but I'm not exactly sure it's a valid angle. Touts who release preseason games always talk about certain teams "needing to win home games". IOW, if a certain team struggled the previous year, the thinking is that the coaches will take their home preseason games more seriously to improve the morale of team and fans. The flaw in this thinking is that both players and true fans know that the preseason is nothing more than a glorified practice, and the real goal should be to make sure that no starters are injured, and no secrets are given away. The point remains that heavy underdogs in preseason are something that are always worth a look. If the line on this game is -2 in San Diego, it means that the linesmaker would make it -8 if it were in Seattle. That's just too much, and San Diego should be slightly more motivated.
Comments
I'm hoping for the non-fiction angle.
Forgot to say in the first post that I would like very much if this thread is a group effort. I live alone, on the road, and it's hard for me to find people where I am who have an intelligent opinion about this stuff. The focus of me posting here is more of an effort to generate positive discussion than provide picks for others to follow. If there is anyone arriving here for football season and you're relatively new to this game, all I can say is, whatever you do, do not ever make a bet only because an anonymous stranger on the internet posted it as a pick. You should always study a variety of different angles and never bet something impulsively.
Cpech -
stay away from this stuff, it sounds like you've come so far I think you know that one bad week, one bad game is going to set you back and everything you worked for. play two fantasy leagues and call it a season, it will keep you busy. wishing you all the luck in the world...
Ok, should I do it in a diary format, where I state exactly what I do and why I do it during a different day, with the accompanying weird stories that always follow me around, or should I aim for something else?
I remember once, years ago, I was on a Greyhound bus going from somewhere to somewhere else, I can't even remember where I was going or exactly what year it was. For some reason, I think it was 1999, and I was on my way from Tucson to Cheyenne, and the bus had to stop in Laughlin. I had been visiting my sister, and as it happens, this is the last time I have seen my sister, and I was on my way to Wyoming where I would meet a woman named S who I would years later write a book about.
It was the middle of the night, and I had fallen asleep, and I was jarred awake as the bus pulled into the parking lot at the Riverside. I remember looking up at the hotel and feeling like it was a magical place, the kind of feeling a child gets when they wake up on Christmas morning, and you're idealistic because you haven't figured out yet how the world works. I never imagined that I would wind up living here for a portion of my adult life, it seems, as I have no desire to leave and no means to do so either.
As it is, I have the entire town down perfectly. Here are the AP maneuvers that I know about here:
Riverside:
Besides the sportsbook, which features the South Point lines with aggressive comps, the big deal here is video poker. They have a bank of 6/5 JOB with a high progressive meter that's currently sitting at $9300 for a royal flush. While the 6/5 paytable by itself is garbage, whenever quads gets over 200 on this game, the payback is well over 100%. When you add in the double comp rate early in the week, it's a very playable game. Other than that, the biggest deal is NSUD (not so ugly deuces), a game I don't currently have no desire to play. You have a paytable that gives back 99.7% at the machine, coupled with a cashback rate of .25%, .5% in comps, as well as free room offers and other mailings if you exceed an easily reachable point number. IOW, you're playing at a house edge of -.05%, but you're getting comped at a rate that makes up for this. The problem with this is that most video poker sessions are losing ones, and if there's a significant drought between your royal flushes, the variance can be brutal. I know of at least one person who is in the whole for five figures at that game this year. I started the morning there because they have numerous breakfast specials for less than $5, and the waitresses at that cafe actually seem to like me. The line on the Giants game was good there this morning, and I might have bet one or two other things as well.
The Aquarius has the worst sportsbook in town, so I seldom venture in there. They do have some 10/7 double bonus that pays off at 100.17%, but this is only at the quarter denominations, so it would take lots of long hours in there to generate enough play for this to be worthwhile. Maybe next year I'll have the time and inclination to play there, but for now, there are better opportunities elsewhere.
Colorado Belle, Edgewater, and Tropicana are in the same barrel. There are no opportunities for machine play there, and the pits are always crowded. I occasionally play at one of these properties to wong into a shoe, but it's a small advantage at best. I do get four room nights at the Tropicana every month.
The Pioneer has one of the greatest slot club promotions in the state. $5000 in coin in on any machine in a month gets four free room nights. Even if a person has no idea what they're doing, the house can't have an edge of more than 1%. So the expected loss for such a person is $50. On weekends, their rooms run about $60 (I'm not sure the exact amount, precisely because I've never had to pay for them), so basically they have to pay 12.50 a night for a room that should cost them about 5 times as much. The two best games there are a video poker game called Triple Deuces Wild, and the vbj machine. Wizardofodds has the payback table on TDW as being 99.952% with the optimal strategy. The vbj is a shufflemaster, and regardless of what anyone says, those things are countable. The sportsbook is good only because it's rarely crowded on weeknights, but for some reason, the tvs shut off at 8 oclock.
Golden Nugget has a lot going for it. They do have great blackjack in the pit, and there are several good video poker games. There's a bank of Illinois deuces with a progressive meter. It starts around a 98% payback, but if you wong in at certain points, it's possible to play at well over 100%. They also have a game called Double Double Jackpot that has a 100.35% payback table with optimum play. However, the strategy is VERY difficult to learn, and many of the plays you're required to make are counterintuitive. I actually write out a Tom Matte sheet for this game if I'm going to be playing it for any significant amount of time since the strategy is so unique.
Next to that is the River Palms. The video poker is absolute garbage, and they rarely have anyone playing for serious money. Maybe one day casinos will realize that you actually make more money by having better odds on your games. I.E., a recreational player comes off the street to play vp there. They run $100 through a machine, and it's gone in ten minutes since the payoffs are so horrible. But, since they didn't have any time to savor the experience, they're never going to come back. If you give that person better odds, the same $100 will go farther on that session, and there's a much better chance of him coming back to play again. The big draw is the vbj. It's a shufflemaster with a low comp rate (bad), but the mailings are great if you play long enough to get your card level high enough. I figured this out pretty quickly, and I've been getting $560 a month in freeplay, along with 10 free room nights a month, and several other perks. It is very uncrowded during the week, and the dinner buffet is only $4.
These are what my days consist of. I wake up at whichever hotel I happened to stay at the night before, and begin walking around in a loop from one hotel to another to see what's going on. Woke up late because I couldn't sleep the night before. I saw the movie The Conjuring last week, and I haven't had a good night's sleep since then. As ridiculous as it sounds, that fucking doll is haunting me, and I'm positive I'm going to wake up in the middle of the night to it trying to strangle me.
I put in a few hours at DDJ at the Golden Nugget the early afternoon, and wound up earning a dollar amount that is roughly equivalent to minimum wage. After that I put in some bets for tomorrow's baseball, but it was too hot, so I went back to the hotel room and watched the White Sox game. Will definitely head out for an evening session somewhere, but it probably won't be blackjack since the crowds are going to be out. Oddly, the thought of sitting at a video poker machine and playing all night instead of seeing anyone socially doesn't bother me. People who haven't met me off the board, (and I've only met a handful of beyondcapping people) don't realize that I'm actually an INFJ. I probably come across as a Robin Williams type who tries to hump the leg of every fat chick he sees, but the reality is anything but.
So Cutter is still recommending to follow the Pinny lean. What a shocker. And horrific advice.
Benny, I'm going to give you the best advice you'll get this season: Fade the steam.
Let's recap what happened this past year:
Spiro (a huge mover and head of The Greek) was arrested.
The 'Russians' (large syndicate out of NYC) was arrested.
Phil Gurian (large mover and well connected in a multitude of circles) was arrested and held without bail.
Pinnacle credit wing (numerous agents and 2 of the owners) were arrested and Pinny shut down all credit accounts.
So who exactly is going to be moving lines this year? In previous years, you didn't know what moves were head fakes and what were not. Multitudes of syndicates were out there moving back a head fake and keeping everyone honest. Now, it's just BW. And I can guarantee you he will be fucking with that board like never before.
If you absolutely must chase steam, get your ass to Vegas. Cantor takes the biggest limits and they aren't on the screen. Sit at the book all day on a CFB Saturday and constantly compare lines to DonBest. Use Cantor as your Pinny lean cause when someone puts big money there, the management is clued in enough to know if it's a square or a mover and they move accordingly. The mover isn't making the bet for any kind of cover or to move the screen elsewhere. So if it's 1.5 points or more off, go bet it somewhere else. Maybe stay at the Trop so you can run to the MGM real quick. Or have a partner monitor it.
This will be the season of the house. My overall advice is that it's incredibly hard to win and so much easier for others to lose. I'd look into switching to the other side of the counter.
Good luck nigga.
Great to hear from you. I'm at the laundrymat typing this on my phone, so I won't be as lucid as I normally am. As much as I respect Cutter, football is my sport, and I will continue to hadicap and originate instead of chasing steam. You've provided some good advice, and I will be following it in part, but I feel as though I have matured the past few years and am more than capable of improving on past results. There are three ways of doing this: the right way, the wrong way, and the way that I do this. My only goals are to have fun and grind a small profit, and I can guarantee I will do just that.
Pretty sure that I will bet Hawaii plus the points over USC, and Florida Atlantic plus over Miami in week 1. If bets like that ever stop being profitable, then god help me.
I was actually supposed to move to Chicago at the end of the month, but it was unexpectedly cancelled.
I stopped reading here.
Season to date 2-1 (+.9 units)
1) Spiro will still be making plays.
2) The Russian syndicate is just as dangerous in Prison as they are out doors. They will still be making plays.
3) Phil Gurian his arrest means nothing communication wise and he will be getting bets off. SEC couldn't even stop this guy
Those very same people as before will still be moving lines. Remember USA prisons are not Russian or N. Korean slave camps.
As far as Billy Walters and the 3 others mentioned above will still be pounding the boards.
All 4 of these groups really don't depend on math models to give them winners in the NFL. BW used to in his hay day, way to filthy rich now.
BW is a bully and sort of a LEX LUTHER type when it comes to getting hidden info from coaches, players, assistants
All 4 groups have a variety of connections starting from coaches all the way down to the clown who hands out towels with illegal stickum on it.
Use to stay at the Hyatt 28 miles from Reno and and make the drive up there on Sundays and being it was in the 70's my memory could be a little off but if I remember right it was all Raider/Niner.
Heard Phil may get out soon, gonna cost him 9 m's
I bet it at +4. I posted the 3 1/2 only because it was what appeared to be the w/a number at the time, and I'm trying to follow to the posting rules. I am in Laughlin right now. Leaving for Jean on Monday morning, and then going to Reno on Wednesday.
It's my last day in Laughlin, and I'm wandering around seeing people I'm probably never going to see again. It's raining for the first time in eight months. My girlfriend is texting me with tons of senseless junior high school drama.
USC has nothing left but their reputation. After the way last season played out, they clearly don't have much to build on. Hawaii has plenty of returning starters and should be able to come in under this number. USC beat them 49-10 last year in LA, so this should be a game that they're taking for granted; no reason to think Hawaii won't be much more motivated.
Made the drive up to Reno yesterday, and it went much the same as the last drive went. 450 miles of nothing, the occasional brothel, mining town, or crashed plane on the side of the road. Got to the Silver Legacy early afternoon and played vp long enough to get a free room for the next two days. My view is of the Sundowner, a hotel that closed down ten years ago. They never demolished it, so it's just been sitting there abandoned. We walked around the southern part of downtown until late last night. She's a huge wine drinker, and we went from one bar to another, the kind that are a few blocks away from the casinos, and where annoying hipsters hang out. She seemed pensive, as if in a state of contemplation, and it seemed clear that she was already growing bored of me. Stories of ex-boyfriends and how horrible they were, always a bad sign because it shows that the two of you have nothing in common, and she's trying to fill the air with some conversation because she didn't like the last thing you were talking about, and since you're Benny Smith, you don't know how to have a normal conversation; you can only tell anecdotes, people you've known, places near here that you've been, the time you and Krazybread went to Boomtown to try and settle a gambling debt, and she immediately starts to judge you because she infers that all of your friends are crackheads. Walking up and down West Street, past the old apartment where you lived in 2003, and you marvel at the fact that it looks exactly the same, the dark red bricks that were assembled there sometime during the Great Depression, and you remember how great it was to only have to pay $340 a month for an apartment. As we walk, I realize that none of my old friends are still here, and I'll never see them again. This will never be as good as that was.
Totals under 50 are a subset that can be bet into blindly, but out of three such bets this week (including the Bills/Patriots that has already steamed), this seems like clearly the best. It's hard to handicap how rusty at calling plays Sean Payton will be, but it's hard to imagine that he'll pick up right where he left off. It's a very strong division rivalry, so the defensive intensity will be high, and both sets of coaches and players know each other's playbooks, so it's hard to imagine any surprises coming up. Have to think Atlanta will be running early and often to try and shorten the game, and their focus on the other side will be to try to avoid giving up explosion plays at all costs. This is probably only one of two plays of my own I'll be making this week. I already bet both of the Buffetgambler picks for double units.