Betting Talk

Need help? Hedge?

stevebodnarstevebodnar Senior Member
edited June 2013 in Sports Betting
06/26/2013
12:26 PM

[Ticket #: 144477969] PARLAY (3 TEAMS) RR (1P-3T)

06/26/2013 @ 07:10 PM MLB [905] PHI PHILLIES -1½+140
( C HAMELS -L / R ERLIN -L )
06/26/2013 @ 12:45 PM MLB [920] OAK ATHLETICS -1½+170
( H BAILEY -R / A GRIFFIN -R )
06/26/2013 @ 12:50 PM MLB [921] PIT PIRATES +155
( ACTION )
127.00 1971.55

Comments

  • stevebodnarstevebodnar Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    have a little over 1000 available in my account

    would you hedge?
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited June 2013
    Here's the answer I've posted at least half a dozen times here at BT...

    You should not hedge unless any of the following conditions apply...

    1. You believe the hedge bet is +EV on its own.
    2. You overbet the original side and need to reduce your exposure.
    3. You stand to win a life-altering amount of money (this usually only applies in contest or game show type scenarios).

    NOTE: This is the mathematically correct answer; psychology is not taken into account. If you're a recreational gambler who wants to hedge to be happier, go for it, just know that the math does not support it unless any of the above conditions are met.
  • newcombenewcombe Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    Goats wrote: »
    Here's the answer I've posted at least half a dozen times here at BT...

    You should not hedge unless any of the following conditions apply...

    1. You believe the hedge bet is +EV on its own.
    2. You overbet the original side and need to reduce your exposure.
    3. You stand to win a life-altering amount of money (this usually only applies in contest or game show type scenarios).

    NOTE: This is the mathematically correct answer; psychology is not taken into account. If you're a recreational gambler who wants to hedge to be happier, go for it, just know that the math does not support it unless any of the above conditions are met.

    stop being modest. at least 100 times :)
  • dtrain11dtrain11 Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    Goats maybe you should consider making that post your avatar!
  • RkteezRkteez Junior Member
    edited June 2013
    I would
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    Papelbon to the rescue. You see he how nice he relieves when he comes in with no runners on :)

    Nice hit Steve
  • parlaykid33parlaykid33 Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    stayed up just to see how this played out for u... when i bet a team to win by 1.5(which i never do anymore) and they are down 2 going into the 8th i lose 200% of the time.... u had alot of things go right for you .... awesome hit... hope u didnt hedge haha
  • stevebodnarstevebodnar Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    LOL didn't hedge and my 3 year old was sick as hell last night. I went to lay down with him when it was 5-2 padres. I fell asleep and woke up at 6am and saw it hit. CRAZYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited June 2013
    Best piece of advice I can give is to never again play a 3-team parlay if you're going to consider hedging after the second leg of it.
  • baseRunnerbaseRunner Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    TommyL wrote: »
    Best piece of advice I can give is to never again play a 3-team parlay if you're going to consider hedging after the second leg of it.

    I agree with everything you said, up until the "if".
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited June 2013
    baseRunner wrote: »
    I agree with everything you said, up until the "if".

    I've made the blanket statement before about never playing them, and then had it pointed out that there are circumstances (free plays, trying to circumvent limits, etc) where they can make sense on rare occasions.
  • baseRunnerbaseRunner Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    True, I can see if you're trying to get around limits in a soft market where your edge is huge. I think the payout schedule for 3-teams used to be a lot better at some shops, too? In general though, highway robbery.
  • stevebodnarstevebodnar Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    have 2603 in account. played some HUGE dogs in tennis. trying to hit something huge, obviously but doubt it will hit.
    even if they lose have 2400 and cashing out!!!

    ONLINE
    06/27/2013
    06:33 AM

    [Ticket #: 144512362] STRAIGHT BET

    06/27/2013 @ 08:30 AM MU [4130] BOBBY REYNOLDS +3000
    (NOVAK DJOKOVIC vrs BOBBY REYNOLDS)
    50.00 1500.00

    ONLINE
    06/27/2013
    07:28 AM

    [Ticket #: 144513648] STRAIGHT BET

    06/27/2013 @ 08:30 AM MU [4130] BOBBY REYNOLDS +3000
    (NOVAK DJOKOVIC vrs BOBBY REYNOLDS)
    50.00 1500.00

    ONLINE
    06/27/2013
    08:01 AM

    [Ticket #: 144514649] STRAIGHT BET

    06/27/2013 @ 08:50 AM MU [4146] ROBERTO BAUTISTA-AGUT +500
    (DAVID FERRER vrs ROBERTO BAUTISTA-AGUT)
    103.00 515.00

    ONLINE
    06/27/2013
    08:11 AM

    [Ticket #: 144515015] STRAIGHT BET

    06/27/2013 @ 08:30 AM MU [4130] BOBBY REYNOLDS +3000
    (NOVAK DJOKOVIC vrs BOBBY REYNOLDS)
    100.00 3000.00
Sign In or Register to comment.