Betting Talk

FML Dodgers bunt

JalapanoseJalapanose Banned
edited July 2013 in Sports Betting
Runner on first no outs, bring in the most valuable commodity in your system to make the dumbest play in all of sports (bunt, obv) then tell him to be the ultimate try hard and attempt to beat it out, strained hammy would've been a tough sell there.

Newsflash, you're bringing in Josh Wall, you're gonna need more than one run here.
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Comments

  • newcombenewcombe Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    only to give up a grand salami... tuff day.
  • JalapanoseJalapanose Banned
    edited April 2013
    lol if Josh Wall is a major league pitcher, I'm the next pope. F U Donnie Baseball
  • worm33worm33 Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    I'm going to start handicapping managers at some point. Problem is at this point about 26/30 are clueless so it's kind of pointless. I think rule of thumb though, if its an ex-player there a terrible in game manager.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    In no particular order

    Buck Showalter
    Mike Scioscia
    Ron Gardenhire
    Joe Maddon
    Bruce Bochy
    Davey Johnson

    Kirk Gibson As of now has Potential

    The rest you can Shit can IMO.

    The funniest was last year around May they were talking Donnie Baseball for Manager of the year in May. He learned nothing for Torre and Joe G the only thing he learned from Torre was how to over work a pitching staff.
  • worm33worm33 Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    Old-Timer wrote: »
    In no particular order

    Buck Showalter
    Mike Scioscia
    Ron Gardenhire
    Joe Maddon
    Bruce Bochy
    Davey Johnson

    Kirk Gibson As of now has Potential

    The rest you can Shit can IMO.

    The funniest was last year around May they were talking Donnie Baseball for Manager of the year in May. He learned nothing for Torre and Joe G the only thing he learned from Torre was how to over work a pitching staff.

    Maddon is in a class of his own the others couldn't handle 1 day inside his brain and understand the concepts he is thinking about.
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    OT, pretty much agree with your list. However, I'd insert Leyland ahead of Davey Johnson. Their 'on earth' longevity would be a pick'em.
  • TwoninerTwoniner Member
    edited April 2013
    Handicapping managers is pretty useless unless you are talking about likely lineups. The incompetence or greatness of your manager is for the most part gonna be in your runs allowed, runs scored, W/L etc. The managers aren't dropped out of space onto these teams for only the games we bet on.
  • worm33worm33 Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    Twoniner wrote: »
    Handicapping managers is pretty useless unless you are talking about likely lineups. The incompetence or greatness of your manager is for the most part gonna be in your runs allowed, runs scored, W/L etc. The managers aren't dropped out of space onto these teams for only the games we bet on.

    I'm just saying when I bet on or against TB I add or subtract a penny for Maddon.
  • kdogkdog Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    How much do you deduct for Dusty Baker?
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    kdog wrote: »
    How much do you deduct for Dusty Baker?

    A Lot. How he gets jobs is beyond me.
  • worm33worm33 Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    kdog wrote: »
    How much do you deduct for Dusty Baker?

    Dusty is probably the worst of the worst, but Ron Washington Eric Wedge etc are probably not to far behind. And I do believe there is more to being a manager then knowing whats correct to do in every situation, thats why Joe Maddon is hands down the best. From everything I have ever heard, his players adore him, and he is in a league of his own when it comes to sabermetrics among managers. IMO Ron Gardenhire has been the most over-rated manager in baseball for 10 years but I do believe he has the players respect and I also believe he is getting better at managing in todays game.
  • BayOceanBayOcean Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    Any thoughts on Joe Girardi? How about Robin Ventura ( now thats a Mgr who is a nice guy but not Mgr material)
  • worm33worm33 Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    BayOcean wrote: »
    Any thoughts on Joe Girardi? How about Robin Ventura ( now thats a Mgr who is a nice guy but not Mgr material)

    I tend to think both are on the sharper side.
  • worm33worm33 Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    Leyland just bunted twice in 3 innings, in the American League. #oldschool
  • kdogkdog Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    The first one was terribad, the second one to get the insurance run to 3rd with one out in the bottom of the 8th not so much regardless of the result.
  • worm33worm33 Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    kdog wrote: »
    The first one was terribad, the second one to get the insurance run to 3rd with one out in the bottom of the 8th not so much regardless of the result.

    What never seems to be discussed is when your Alex Avila and u have a lefty pitcher with a nasty sinker running into you it's hard to bunt. I would say he's at best 50-50 to get it down before he makes an out or gets to 2 strikes
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    worm33 wrote: »
    I tend to think both are on the sharper side.

    I have no opinion on Ventura but I'm really surprised about your opinion on Joe G.
  • worm33worm33 Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    Old-Timer wrote: »
    I have no opinion on Ventura but I'm really surprised about your opinion on Joe G.

    Your a Torre guy right? Im sure Torre was a great manager in his time not going to take anything away from him but the way he constructed the WBC lineup this year was a joke. He led off Rollins and Phillips 2 poor OBP guys in front of Braun Mauer and Wright. For one, why in the hell would you have Braun hitting in front of 2 On base machines like Mauer and Wright. I know it woud have taken some guts but he should have hit Mauer leadoff, Wright 2nd then Braun Stanton etc and put Rollins and Phillips where they belong, at the bottom.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    worm33 wrote: »
    Your a Torre guy right? Im sure Torre was a great manager in his time not going to take anything away from him but the way he constructed the WBC lineup this year was a joke. He led off Rollins and Phillips 2 poor OBP guys in front of Braun Mauer and Wright. For one, why in the hell would you have Braun hitting in front of 2 On base machines like Mauer and Wright. I know it woud have taken some guts but he should have hit Mauer leadoff, Wright 2nd then Braun Stanton etc and put Rollins and Phillips where they belong, at the bottom.


    I agree that the last few years as a Yankee manager Torre lost something and was send packing and I agreed with that decision at the time. He had no fire left and really just didn't seem to care. Don't know if it was his health or brothers health but whatever he wasn't the same. Now Mattingly I loved watching him play baseball but was glad when he wasn't named Manager wasn't thrilled about Joe G. but better then Mattingly for sure. There was talk at the time about going after Showalter and that would have made me happy.

    Not blaming everything on Joe G. Cashman is no genus either but the future seems dim for the Yankees over the next few years. They keep getting older trying to live up to Yankee tradition and in the meantime I see all these stud pitchers that are being groomed in other systems and I said why can't the Yankees do that without trading them away.

    People forget The core of the most recent Yankee success starting in 95/96 was from the farm and of course some free agents. I'm surprised at this point of there record and only time will tell but I will give Joe G credit on the way he's using his bullpen this year and the way he's dealing with all the injury's. So he could maturing into that manager position and hopefully he is. Over those winning years they knew the value of role players now they only want names regardless of age.
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    worm33 wrote: »
    Leyland just bunted twice in 3 innings, in the American League. #oldschool

    Avila had little/no chance of moving up the runner or even hitting a fair ball versus Avilano. Avilano is nasty on good lefties. The bunt was the absolute proper 8th inning call.
  • JalapanoseJalapanose Banned
    edited April 2013
    Ronbets wrote: »
    Avila had little/no chance of moving up the runner or even hitting a fair ball versus Avilano. Avilano is nasty on good lefties. The bunt was the absolute proper 8th inning call.


    I love ya Ron, but ya lose a point here. The bunt is never the right call. Maybe first and second no outs down one bottoms of ninth game seven World Series, Brett Butler up Ichiro in his prime on deck tony Gwynn in his prime in the hole. And even then it's only 51/49. Hate the play at the major league level.
  • kass101kass101 Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    Jalapanose wrote: »
    I love ya Ron, but ya lose a point here. The bunt is never the right call. Maybe first and second no outs down one bottoms of ninth game seven World Series, Brett Butler up Ichiro in his prime on deck tony Gwynn in his prime in the hole. And even then it's only 51/49. Hate the play at the major league level.

    So some sabermetrics states that bunting is bad? You are not bunting for a base hit in these situations, advancing the runner with 0 outs should guarantee a run while a pop out ground out or strikeout can put you from 1st and 2nd no outs to not even putting a single run on the board. Please tell me how that is bad. Letting some idiot swing away with no outs is the stupid play.
  • JalapanoseJalapanose Banned
    edited April 2013
    kass101 wrote: »
    So some sabermetrics states that bunting is bad? You are not bunting for a base hit in these situations, advancing the runner with 0 outs should guarantee a run while a pop out ground out or strikeout can put you from 1st and 2nd no outs to not even putting a single run on the board. Please tell me how that is bad. Letting some idiot swing away with no outs is the stupid play.


    I can't quote ya any sabermetrics on the pros and cons of the bunt tbh. Relying on common sense and the value of an out. If you can't trust "some idiot" at the plate he shouldn't be a major league hitter to begin with.
  • kass101kass101 Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    Jalapanose wrote: »
    I can't quote ya any sabermetrics on the pros and cons of the bunt tbh. Relying on common sense and the value of an out. If you can't trust "some idiot" at the plate he shouldn't be a major league hitter to begin with.

    The point was, even a great hitter in the majors makes out 68% of the time. When you have 1st 2nd no outs and can advance the runners to 2nd and 3rd with 1 out you pretty much should guarantee a run. Bunting is not a bad move at all.
  • JalapanoseJalapanose Banned
    edited April 2013
    I'd rather take my chances of not wasting an out at 30% than at 4%. And that's not even counting the other "good" results from swinging away. Bunt = worst play in all of sports nothing else even close
  • kass101kass101 Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    Jalapanose wrote: »
    I'd rather take my chances of not wasting an out at 30% than at 4%. And that's not even counting the other "good" results from swinging away. Bunt = worst play in all of sports nothing else even close

    And yet you have no actual data to back this up.
  • worm33worm33 Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    kass101 wrote: »
    And yet you have no actual data to back this up.

    Actual data isn't hard to find.
  • worm33worm33 Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    Ronbets wrote: »
    Avila had little/no chance of moving up the runner or even hitting a fair ball versus Avilano. Avilano is nasty on good lefties. The bunt was the absolute proper 8th inning call.

    So he had absolutely no chance to roll over on a ball against a guy who in his 70 LH batters faced in the big leagues has generated a 57.5% GB rate vs LH batters?

    I would say he has just as good of a chance against such a GB pitcher to just hit a ground ball to the right side then he is to get a good bunt down before 2 strikes. Thankfully though that wasnt our only option. Correct option is to pinch hit your backup catcher Brayan Pena who is a switch hitter who almost never strikes out (11.5% of the time in his almost 1000 ab's) and Avilan isnt that great against righties (He has struck out 30% of LH batters faced in his short career compared to only 15% of RH which is below league avg.) Let Pena swing, he might advance the runner anyway and might just bloop a single in a good matchup for him.
  • kass101kass101 Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    worm33 wrote: »
    Actual data isn't hard to find.

    So conjecture is the best option?

    You just posted actual data in your next post. I would actually be very interested to see if bunting really is a shitty option but up until your last post no one has presented anything.

    The fact that Contrarian has to thank your post about data being hard to find instead of actually posting data says something.
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited April 2013
    Jalapanose wrote: »
    I'd rather take my chances of not wasting an out at 30% than at 4%. And that's not even counting the other "good" results from swinging away. Bunt = worst play in all of sports nothing else even close

    I think that you're missing a little bit of what a bunt now and then does to a defense (specifically the 3rd baseman). If he knows that there is zero chance that you're going to bunt, he can play several steps back. I agree that teams are willing to give away the out too often, however keeping them honest and making them protect against the bunt will cut down on their range (which makes me say that it certainly isn't the "worst" play in sports).
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