MNF headscratcher

Contrarian

SF would really be laying 13 to az at SF? Granted the six point rule of thumb doesn't always work, but it certainly is usually closer than this.

jets96

my line would be 12....I think ariz should be given a little more credit playing home, 6-2 last year and 3-1 this year st up.

I think so far this week, pre byes are 1-14 ats , i might put a little on the cards if i can get over 7

TheReb

This probably helps add to the cause for the rich home line:

John Skelton struggled in his second start of the season. Skelton threw for 262 yards with a touchdown but was sacked seven times and committed two turnovers.
Skelton has compiled an NFL-worst 4.9 interception percentage since Nov. 6, throwing 17 picks in 349 attempts.

Although it figures to be a defensive battle, turnovers are huge when points are at a premium, so this is why the line is shaded to SFO IMO. Normally the mindset would be 7 is way rich for a home dog MNF division matchup but the Cards are 1-8 L9 on MNF, score projection is saying along lines of 23-15

tribecalledjeff

Agree that the line seems high.

Funny you phrased this how you did, I had the exact same thought when I saw the Bama/LSU line. Bama laying 18 at home? Crazy.

jets96

tribe ,what you mean bama/lsu laying 18 at home

jets96

teams laying 7 to 9.5 are 5-12-2 ats ,even with all the those INT's cards have been a solid home dog and a dog in general

TheReb

jets96 wrote: »

teams laying 7 to 9.5 are 5-12-2 ats ,even with all the those INT's cards have been a solid home dog and a dog in general

Not that this means much relative to "today's specific independent from all the others game" but if you're going with trends and numbers you should also note the following : 49ers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Arizona.

tribecalledjeff

jets96 wrote: »

tribe ,what you mean bama/lsu laying 18 at home

If you figure in home field, that makes the game Bama -10 at LSU, appx Bama -14 if it were neutral, and that means it'd be Bama -18ish at home.

tribecalledjeff

If I never saw another single digit sample size trend posted again it would be too soon.

lumpy19

market keeps backing SF.....looks like 7.5 may pop up

TheReb

tribecalledjeff wrote: »

If I never saw another single digit sample size trend posted again it would be too soon.

I hope you noted the sarcasm in my response to the OP

TheReb

Having said all that, I wonder what the all time stats are for the Tiggs as a double digit dog under the lights in the Bayou in a revenge situation after an embarrassing BCS loss

6pounder

TheReb wrote: »

This probably helps add to the cause for the rich home line:

John Skelton struggled in his second start of the season. Skelton threw for 262 yards with a touchdown but was sacked seven times and committed two turnovers.
Skelton has compiled an NFL-worst 4.9 interception percentage since Nov. 6, throwing 17 picks in 349 attempts.

Although it figures to be a defensive battle, turnovers are huge when points are at a premium, so this is why the line is shaded to SFO IMO. Normally the mindset would be 7 is way rich for a home dog MNF division matchup but the Cards are 1-8 L9 on MNF, score projection is saying along lines of 23-15

defiantly strength vs weakness in this game. 49ers have the best front 7, arizona has one of the worst offensive lines I have seen in a while. looks like a 23-10 type game. I actually think Skelton might be better than Kolb (not saying much).