Betting Talk

WS Game one

ContrarianContrarian Banned
edited October 2012 in Sports Betting
Pretty good situation for SF +156, Imonit
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Comments

  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited October 2012
    am not betting against verlander ...i want sf for the series , will wait and see what happens tonight ...
  • Wurzz03Wurzz03 Senior Member
    edited October 2012
    great situation for giants. love it contra. I know Verlander is great, but i didnt think he was god. Giants with momentum (only one day off stay in rhythm), bats hot, and at home with +156, yep ill stab at it also.
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited October 2012
    What I can't believe is this series price with the difference in BP's, I feel much safer with the Giants in the latter innings then I would with what the Tiger's bring to the mound. I think too many are caught up in the Verlander kool aid. The Yanks were not what everyone thought they were and that magnified the Tiger's sweep to get this price where it is IMO....Giants may not win the series but with the series price as it stands it's SFO for me as there is way too much value to pass up GL today -R
  • organic313organic313 Senior Member
    edited October 2012
    This is a classic choke situation for Verlander in my humble opinion. In years past he has choked in the playoffs & I believe tonight is the night he will do the same after 2 great outings. Don't you think the all star game blowout will be on his mind just slightly? If he didn't blow that game the Tigers could have had game 1 at home instead of vice versa. Also, look for the Giants to work the corners with bunts if they get on base tonight. Fielder & Cabby are turtles out there & are essentially sitting ducks if the g-men can lay them down proper. Momentum is HUGE here & the Tigers have been sitting around for a week scrimmaging the Mudhens trying to stay active. Anpther thing of note is that the tigers really have a difficult time hitting left handers. Fielder, Dirks, Avilla. I really love the value in tonight's game & laying a nice portion of the pie on the Giants tonight. Boooooooom!
  • ContrarianContrarian Banned
    edited October 2012
    organic313 wrote: »
    This is a classic choke situation for Verlander


    Paging tribe in 3, 2, 1 (that is if his head doesn't explode first lol)
  • BigItaly42BigItaly42 Senior Member
    edited October 2012
    organic313 wrote: »
    This is a classic choke situation for Verlander in my humble opinion. In years past he has choked in the playoffs & I believe tonight is the night he will do the same after 2 great outings. Don't you think the all star game blowout will be on his mind just slightly? If he didn't blow that game the Tigers could have had game 1 at home instead of vice versa. Also, look for the Giants to work the corners with bunts if they get on base tonight. Fielder & Cabby are turtles out there & are essentially sitting ducks if the g-men can lay them down proper. Momentum is HUGE here & the Tigers have been sitting around for a week scrimmaging the Mudhens trying to stay active. Anpther thing of note is that the tigers really have a difficult time hitting left handers. Fielder, Dirks, Avilla. I really love the value in tonight's game & laying a nice portion of the pie on the Giants tonight. Boooooooom!

    First off, Verlander is coming off THREE great outings. 24 and 2/3 innings, 2 runs allowed. 10 total hits, 5-1 K/BB ratio. I don't think that in any way, shape or form Verlander is thinking about or caring about the All Star game. That is a ridiculous statement at best. I'll give you that some of the Tigers struggle vs lefties, but its not as if the Giants faced elite pitching in the LCS. The Cards starting pitching was barely above average this season, and doesnt even compare to the Tigers rotation. San Fran BTW is batting .243 against righties in the playoffs, and Detroit is batting .260 against lefties. Guess that blows up your next point. Momentum is huge? How about 5 straight wins? The Tigers haven't lost since Valverde gave up 3 runs in the ninth TWO WEEKS AGO. And the Giants are the ones riding momemtum? Give me a break. You go ahead and bet Zito to beat the best pitcher in the game tonight. You have literally no clue what you're talking about.
  • blueblue Senior Member
    edited October 2012
    In my opinion, the Cards play in the last three games was as bad if not worse than the Yankees. This is a tossup for me. I like the Tigers tonight, but not enough to bet them at this heavy price due to the layover and a crappy bullpen. Not enough to bet against them because it is Barry Zito even though the Tigers have not fared well against LH starters this year (as stated above). I don't think this is a classic choke job by Verlander tonight. The guy is good and he wants a ring after the 2006 debacle.
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited October 2012
    blue wrote: »
    In my opinion, the Cards play in the last three games was as bad if not worse than the Yankees. This is a tossup for me. I like the Tigers tonight, but not enough to bet them at this heavy price due to the layover and a crappy bullpen. Not enough to bet against them because it is Barry Zito even though the Tigers have not fared well against LH starters this year (as stated above). I don't think this is a classic choke job by Verlander tonight. The guy is good and he wants a ring after the 2006 debacle.

    Those two points alone should be enough to take the rich dog series price alone IMO, first two games where the Det pitchers will have to bat and depending on score etc. may be conducive for PH situations, etc...also like Bochy over Leyland, think there is a nice edge there as well. GL -R
  • BigKahunaBigKahuna Banned
    edited October 2012
    I am on the Tigers tonite. Giants scored a boat load of unearned runs, and other runs on Cardinals poor defense, especially because of Kozmer. I am not sure they can score 3 runs tonite and Zito goes back to his old self and gives up 5+ runs. I really like -1/2 1st 5 -20.
    Good luck everyone.
  • CoopsCoops Senior Member
    edited October 2012
    V to the ERLANDER... do it for daddy 1 more time Justin!
  • organic313organic313 Senior Member
    edited October 2012
    BigItaly42 wrote: »
    First off, Verlander is coming off THREE great outings. 24 and 2/3 innings, 2 runs allowed. 10 total hits, 5-1 K/BB ratio. I don't think that in any way, shape or form Verlander is thinking about or caring about the All Star game. That is a ridiculous statement at best. I'll give you that some of the Tigers struggle vs lefties, but its not as if the Giants faced elite pitching in the LCS. The Cards starting pitching was barely above average this season, and doesnt even compare to the Tigers rotation. San Fran BTW is batting .243 against righties in the playoffs, and Detroit is batting .260 against lefties. Guess that blows up your next point. Momentum is huge? How about 5 straight wins? The Tigers haven't lost since Valverde gave up 3 runs in the ninth TWO WEEKS AGO. And the Giants are the ones riding momemtum? Give me a break. You go ahead and bet Zito to beat the best pitcher in the game tonight. You have literally no clue what you're talking about.


    Bottom line is Verlander chokes tonight on the road & the tigers sitting around for a week, terrible infield play & bullpen catches up with them tonight. Don't think so? Take the tigers... I'll be back on here posting "I told you so" after a 4-2 Giants win. GL
  • organic313organic313 Senior Member
    edited October 2012
    SF up to +163 on bov niiiiiiiiiiiice baby!
  • BigItaly42BigItaly42 Senior Member
    edited October 2012
    You can go ahead and gloat if you hit. One win doesn't change my life, so I will not be returning the favor.
  • organic313organic313 Senior Member
    edited October 2012
    No worries man... You could have gone without "I literally have no clue of what I am talking about". I live in Detroit & have watched Verlander from day uno.
    My money says he chokes the hog tonight among other intangible factors. Try laying a hundo on it, maybe you'll thank me afterwards. Alllllll aboooard!
  • CoopsCoops Senior Member
    edited October 2012
    U live in Detroit? Im sorry.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited October 2012
    I'll tell you one thing Posey better start hitting batting .178 if the Giants have any chance. Pence 1.88 Good Luck depending on Panda and Marco.

    Home field a plus. Lots of luck with Zito and Bumgarner. Key to the series Fielder. I understand betting S.Fran for the series and hope to get lucky at a price. No surprise he's starting two lefties at home against the Tigers.

    Have a good feeling this one is over quick.
  • organic313organic313 Senior Member
    edited October 2012
    All good my brother... My bills are cheap here, risk your life for the low house notes...so I can throw it all on the G-men tonight ;-)
  • tribecalledjefftribecalledjeff Senior Member
    edited October 2012
    Contrarian wrote: »
    Paging tribe in 3, 2, 1 (that is if his head doesn't explode first lol)

    Bingo.

    If he lets up 4 ground ball base hits in the first inning and SF scores 2 runs, people will be talking about the layoff and how he's stale and choked. Yet, if he lets up 6 rocket line drives right at people in the first two innings, people will say "Well I guess the layoff didn't matter, he's pitching great as we're scoreless through two!" In reality, a large portion of what happens tonight is dictated by luck, variance, BAPIP, etc. My guess is the same people that will overreact to tonight's start no matter what it is are the same people that want to start fading RAS after 2 bad weeks.

    Results oriented thinking tilts me.
  • tribecalledjefftribecalledjeff Senior Member
    edited October 2012
    organic313 wrote: »
    Bottom line is Verlander chokes tonight on the road & the tigers sitting around for a week, terrible infield play & bullpen catches up with them tonight. Don't think so? Take the tigers... I'll be back on here posting "I told you so" after a 4-2 Giants win. GL

    Can you define "choke" for me please?
  • organic313organic313 Senior Member
    edited October 2012
    Yes I can.... In sports, a "choke" is the failure of an athlete or an athletic team to win a game or tournament when the player or team had been strongly favored to win or had squandered a large lead in the late stages of the event. Someone who chokes may be known as a "choker" or, more derisively, as a "choke artist." Choking in sport can be considered a form of analysis paralysis. The opposite of choking is to be clutch. A clutch player or team rises to the occasion under pressure rather than collapsing or falling apart.
  • tribecalledjefftribecalledjeff Senior Member
    edited October 2012
    Please define it in terms of Verlander tonight. They are -163 to win the game, or appx 61%. How will we know if you think that he has choked? Will we have to look that up on Wikipedia, too, like you just did with "your" definition?
  • organic313organic313 Senior Member
    edited October 2012
    Choke means he loses tonight... Good enough?
  • Clark GriswoldClark Griswold Senior Member
    edited October 2012
    even if 1-0?
  • CoopsCoops Senior Member
    edited October 2012
    if he goes 8 innings of no hit ball, then leaves and the bull pen blows it, did he choke?
  • tribecalledjefftribecalledjeff Senior Member
    edited October 2012
    organic313 wrote: »
    Choke means he loses tonight... Good enough?

    Yep. Got it. They lose 1-0-and JV choked.

    Look, people often use "choke" when events that have a large probability of happening end up not happening. Winning a game when you're -400, missing a FT when you shoot 80% from the line, missing a 40 yard FG when you're historically 85%, etc.

    You have to realize that there's a reason those percentages aren't 100. Just because a guy happens to miss a FT, which he does 20% of the time, in the last minute, he's not clutch? Even 80% FT shooters miss at least 1 free throw out of 2 36% of the time. Why if one of those 36/100 times is in the last minute is he labelled a choker?

    If JV loses tonight, keeping in mind that the Tigers are supposed to lose this game 39% of the time, that's choking? Why can't it be just one of those 39/100 times?
  • tribecalledjefftribecalledjeff Senior Member
    edited October 2012
    Coops wrote: »
    if he goes 8 innings of no hit ball, then leaves and the bull pen blows it, did he choke?

    If he goes 8 innings of no hit ball and Leyland pulls him, I'll choke Leyland.
  • organic313organic313 Senior Member
    edited October 2012
    if you read through my previous posts in the thread I noted the final score being in the neighborhood of 4-2 with Verlander taking the loss. That would define my version of a choke.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited October 2012
    organic313 wrote: »
    Yes I can.... In sports, a "choke" is the failure of an athlete or an athletic team to win a game or tournament when the player or team had been strongly favored to win or had squandered a large lead in the late stages of the event. Someone who chokes may be known as a "choker" or, more derisively, as a "choke artist." Choking in sport can be considered a form of analysis paralysis. The opposite of choking is to be clutch. A clutch player or team rises to the occasion under pressure rather than collapsing or falling apart.

    So you actually believe the term Clutch. I just say for the sake of time that with a proper subset there is no such thing as clutch. Lets use Jeter as an example because everyone says how clutch he is and he has quite a large subset in the playoffs. Do you know that his lifetime numbers (Regular Season) and playoff numbers are almost the same. The Clutch and Choke is talking head talk that's all it is. If Verlander gets bomb tonight it means he Choked. What's tonight game any different from the last series. Did CC choke in game 4. You watching and listening way to much to ESPN.
  • ct5320ct5320 Senior Member
    edited October 2012
    organic313 wrote: »
    The opposite of choking is to be clutch.

    Opposite, yet similarly fallacious
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited October 2012
    Forgive me for this but I couldn't resist...I would have to say that Cincy and St. Louis were very good examples of CHOKING :wacko:
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