NFL Season 2012-2013
bksze
Senior Member
Not sure how many of you guys followed my CFL thread. Using the same model to do the NFL. In case anyone was wondering of the methodology, please see the first few posts of the CFL thread below.
http://www.bettingtalk.com/threads/168700-CFL-Season-2012-2013?p=758969#post758969
Here are week 8's picks using week 1-7 stats.
103 TB/MIN o41.5
220 STL +7
220 STL/NE u47
228 ATL/PHI u46.5
230 DET -2.5
230 SEA/DET u43.5
236 PITT -5
237 OAK +2
241 NO/DEN o54.5
http://www.bettingtalk.com/threads/168700-CFL-Season-2012-2013?p=758969#post758969
Here are week 8's picks using week 1-7 stats.
103 TB/MIN o41.5
220 STL +7
220 STL/NE u47
228 ATL/PHI u46.5
230 DET -2.5
230 SEA/DET u43.5
236 PITT -5
237 OAK +2
241 NO/DEN o54.5
Comments
YTD 4-5 -1.5u
415 DEN/CIN o47
423 BUF/HOU o46.5
428 DET/JAX u44
431 MINN +5
435 PITT +3.5
440 NO -3.5
I hope I'm calculating the CLV right. I total up my points saved from closing line and divide by the total amount of games.
418 ARI/GB u44
YTD 7-9 -2.9u CLV 0.53
105 IND -3 -120
218 CIN +4
221 DEN -3.5
227 ATL/NO o53.5
237 HOU +1
240 PITT -11.5
YTD 12-10 1u CLV 0.48
416 ARI/ATL u44
417 TB -1
I make a line of Buf -4.5 ou50.
The over just misses our threshold for a play by 0.02.
Buffalo doesn't qualify as a play because both these teams are fairly inconsistent so we aren't able to rely on the data as strongly as we'd like.
Good luck!
YTD 14-10 +3u CLV 0.48
105 WAS +3.5
107 NE -6
227 DEN -10
233 ATL/TB o48
241 STL +2.5
242 STL/ARI u37.5
243 GB +2.5
Not sure how I feel about there being so many plays but have to trust the model. Good luck and Happy Thanksgiving! I may have to take the day off work on Thursday and watch some games, supposed to see a large temperature drop that day up here in Canada.
239 SF/NO o48.5
YTD 18-14 +2.6u CLV 0.61
Crushed the CLV last week, be nice if we got bonus points for beating the line. Lots of plays again this week.
301 NO/ATL o56
341 MINN +9
346 ARI/NYJ u36.5
348 CAR/KC u40.5
352 JAX/BUF u45
353 NE -7 -120
353 NE/MIA o51
365 PHI/DAL o43
YTD 20-18-2 +0.2u CLV 0.59
107 KC +5.5
114 NYJ/JAX u38.5
123 DAL/CIN o45.5
133 HOU/NE o51.5
Will likely have a couple more later.
YTD 22-20-2 0 CLV 0.47
307 TB +3.5
307 TB/NO o54
315 DEN 3
317 IND 10.5
323 DET -6
331 NYJ/TEN u42
Travelling all this week, didn't get a chance to post till game day! Good Luck!
YTD 24-24-2 -2.4u CLV 0.44
Sorry the final recap ended up being 2 months later. I was away for the Christmas holidays. Upon my return, I was tboned in a pretty bad accident. Needless to say, handicapping took a back seat to life as I sorted through it all.
Ended up selling my superbowl package and didn't make it down to New Orleans. Probably for the better as I would've pissed myself watching SF leave it on the goal line.
I'm putting together a little something for NHL, hope it checks out that I feel confident posting. Will resume posting when I see something of value or when football starts again.
Good luck all!