Betting Talk

Interesting read on sports betting/CLV

StJoes0610StJoes0610 Senior Member
edited September 2012 in Sports Betting
http://www.minyanville.com/special-features/sports-business/articles/casino-stocks-online-gambling-online-sports/7/20/2012/id/42632

Here’s how Pinnacle says they do it:
The most accurate way we have found, to distinguish winning and losing players is to look at the odds a player received when they made their bet, and compare it with the Pinnacle Sports closing line on the game. If a player consistently beats our closing price, they are likely to be a long-term winner – period. Interestingly, we have found that this test is more reflective of a player’s future winning potential, than their historical win/loss record with the company.

Comments

  • chuckhchuckh Senior Member
    edited September 2012
    I don't understand how they come to the conclusion that future winning potential is more reflective of a ltw rather than historical win/loss record unless it is indicative of poor money mgt in the past? Am I missing something here? Or is this just BS?
    OBTW thanks for the post StJoes
  • StJoes0610StJoes0610 Senior Member
    edited September 2012
    Quick follow up - you mean you dont understand how they come to the conclusion that CLV is more indicative of a LTW than W/L? That is a very good question. If you click the blue link that they provide linked to the word "says" in "Here’s how Pinnacle says they do it:", it seems to explain a lot more in depth their reasoning. I am currently reading the article myself, if i think there is anything in there relevant to your question i will post it.
  • StJoes0610StJoes0610 Senior Member
    edited September 2012
    Eh, it was basically a quasi-marketing piece for pinnacle. They dont give out much information as to why they believe CLV would be more indicative of a LTW than W/L, other than stuff you already know; better prices make it easier to beat the hurdle % necessary to win, being on the right side of line movements indicates skill etc. I thought it was interesting because its a theory that I believe Edward subscribes to much more than W/L, and amateurs like me have trouble seeing past W/L haha. Perhaps there is a lesson there that i am hopefully able to share with others, assuming what i said is correct.
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