Betting Talk

Value of a half game in Season win totals in football

BigfistBigfist Member
edited August 2012 in Sports Betting
I guess I am asking if anyone knows of a conversion factor when looking at season win totals in college and pro football.

If an NFL team is listed in one sportsbook with a total of 6 (over -120, under +10) and in another of 6.5 (over +130/under -150), are these equivalent bets? How about college?

Thanks in advance.

Comments

  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited August 2012
    Your first set of #'s is a 30c Line (-120 +10) the 2nd set your using a 20c Line (+130 -150) It appears that if the Under 6 goes from +10 to 6.5 -150 IMO It's way out of line. I'm not a strong Math guy there are some here that will break it down for you
  • lumpy19lumpy19 Senior Member
    edited August 2012
    As a general guideline 50c but it really does vary depending on the number, could be worth significantly more or less, there's really not a specific answer
  • lumpy19lumpy19 Senior Member
    edited August 2012
    5dimes now has several sets of lines up for each team, that'll give you a rough idea of what a bookmaker thinks a 1/2 win is worth
  • rhinocerosrhinoceros Senior Member
    edited August 2012
    For a team playing 16 games with exactly a 50% chance on each game, the probability of winning exactly 8 games would be 19.6%--a value of about 40c for a 1/2 game on the season wins total. A real team, with an assortment of probabilities on different games (some very high, some very low, many near 0.50) will have a higher probability of hitting the expected number exactly. I think lumpy's "rule of thumb" of 50c is better than a mere rule of thumb; I think it is extremely accurate, and unlikely ever to be off by more than 5c.
  • lumpy19lumpy19 Senior Member
    edited August 2012
    rhinoceros wrote: »
    For a team playing 16 games with exactly a 50% chance on each game, the probability of winning exactly 8 games would be 19.6%--a value of about 40c for a 1/2 game on the season wins total. A real team, with an assortment of probabilities on different games (some very high, some very low, many near 0.50) will have a higher probability of hitting the expected number exactly. I think lumpy's "rule of thumb" of 50c is better than a mere rule of thumb; I think it is extremely accurate, and unlikely ever to be off by more than 5c.

    Go to town on the 5dimes numbers then because they're way more than 50c on some of them
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