Euro 2012 plays at bt
Contrarian
Banned
What a bloodbath. You guys seriously thought you could beat this? Soccer gotta be the most efficient market out there, even in spite of the fixes.
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It's the other way around.....they started fixing because it was so hard to beat......
Now that the first round of group play is in, we've seen all the teams play, should get better from here on. But you're right, a very difficult sport to cap.
Well yeah, but I would argue that fix-affected money makes the soccer market less efficient in terms of reflecting the true odds for any fixed match. Again other than the fixes, soccer lines are the tightest and best in the entire world, hands-down....nothing else comes close.
Ahh the old "we've been watching them play, we can beat it"-theory......good luck with that, I am sure that there are one or two others around the globe also watching the soccers.
Why wouldn't you post thoughts like this ahead of the tourney, or at any other point other than the day after several posters had a tough day? Did yesterday's results suddenly make you think differently, or were you keeping your thoughts to yourself until you had a chance to kick some people when they were down?
I actually thought it was obvious and hadn't really paid attention to exactly how many of you guys were tilting at the windmills tbh.
"yesterday"? Those records can't include hardly any winning days....1-15, 2-7, etc. etc. etc.
Let's also note that whenever I claim that somebody can't/won't win at something (dude, coops come to mind), I get called an asshole and threatened with banning. Monday morning quarterbacking has always been called out on here by me and I get flamed for it. Why the dichotomy?
It means that a tie is a push.
If you're not a politician you missed you're calling, you're so good with the people, you just have this natural ability, it's amazing
You are right.
Looking back, most of the teams that did win their matches in the first round of group play, were favored by the books. Most of my (losing) bets so far (Swe, Fra, Gre) have been on underdogs. So from now on, seeing strong faves by the books (Russia, Spain, Czech Rep and Italy) gives a little more confidence in the bets.
I forgot that the goal as a bt poster was to be popular and liked by the masses. Is that seriously why you post at and read bt, to be "liked"!? WFC, give us some knowledge, regardless of whether it makes people upset or not.
Thank you
Okay now we are getting somewhere.....do you actually think that one game being played will cause favorites to be *that* overvalued? Again, we are talking about the most efficient market out there with a gazillion people across the globe betting it legally....and you want to use one game's results?!?! sigh
How did your plays do against the closing number?
So that means what - that the faves are more likely to win....or that the dogs are "due"? How do the players on the teams find out which one is true?
Well thanks for dropping the incredible knowledge that soccer is the most efficient market, what an asset to the forum!!
My overall posted record on baseball is:
626 Wins
534 Losses
1 Push
+153.01 Weighted Units
+71.39 Unweighted Units
53.97% winning percentage over 1,161 games.
How the F is that lossing?
Kudos, but past performance does not guarantee future results IMO
As you may know, in soccer it's either a win, loss or a draw. So the line itself doesn't move. However I do remember Greece coming down from +300 to +285 and yesterday Sweden went down from +190 to +165. So I beat the closing 'value' so to speak, handily.
Personally I like your aggressive attitude and knowledge but these guys that are all of the sudden posting soccer selections to make EURO 2012 more interesting for them should not be viewed as experts by any means. Save your criticism for more worthy occasions.
With that being said if you want to open a thread discussing the soccer market in general I would love to see it. It's the one sport I've been breaking even in since I started and it's frustrating.
I mean: Knowing that the books themselves picked the right side 5 out of 8 and had only 1 out of 8 really wrong, I'm trusting them to be on the right side again for the coming round. It is assuring to know that after 1 game, my views coincide with the books view.
If people refrain from personal attacks, we could continue that right here. I'm interested too.
Awesome, thanks taco. Don't feel bad.....one of the sharpest guys I have ever met through the forums shipped me his stuff for a long period and he split out as well.....I am not sure if he has given up tbh. I would love to talk soccer market though, I did a bit of following during the last WC and it was fascinating to watch how accurate the market was. Amazing, really.
Incidentally, I do see that another one of the very sharpest cats in forumville is off to a good start in Euro, but he's clearly going to win at anything he does.
Exactly, the line DOES move....kudos on beating the closing number, quite substantially even (Sweden).
You really lock into your views being flawed after 1 game? Hell bro, even Pedro got shelled every now and then.
Sorry, mixed up the line and the spread.
I'll try to explain this.
The data you have on the teams is from:
A- Qualifying
This happens from 24 months prior to the tourney to 8 months prior to the tourney. So players that were hot then, might not be so hot anymore. There might be other coaches, and due to injuries, there might be completely different players selected to a squad.
B- Friendlies
These happen 8 months prior to the tourney to up to 1 month before the tourney. Added dimension, As they are friendlies, coaches might use different players to give them experience or to try them out.
C - Training Camp + Friendlies
These happen in the final month before the tourney. Many times coaches are tinkering with the system as to get the players sharp in the system. Injuries can derail a whole line (defense, midfield, attack) for some teams.
As you can see, the data which you have is A. Old and B. difficult to asses as teams tend to change continuously.
Hence I might change my views completely after seeing the teams system and the sharpness of the players. Of course you pay attention to the data which you had, but you have to go with what the coaches and players are giving you in their last match, If it completely differs from what they did 8 months ago in qualification.
It's more or less the same for everybody.
If 1 or more posters here on the forum manage to end the tournament profitably, would you call it 'good eyes' or would you call it 'lucky' ?
That's exactly his point. You're trying to beat a market that is incredibly efficient. What information do you have that gives you an edge?
I'd call it variance. If enough people post plays, math says that someone will end up in the positive. I would not, however, find it to be predictive for the future unless there were other indicators like beating the closing line or knowing that the poster had a unique system/model/something that gave them an edge.
While I don't agree with what happened yesterday,
I think he certainly is asking the right questions today. Hope to continue this thread without it getting personal.
Since you sold out [not that there's anything wrong with that :-) ], about half of your non-information-seeking posts are chasing me around....I would think that you would have better/"bettor" things to do with your time. Ignore me or dispute what I am saying if you can't turn away....I would think that you would be jumping at the chances to prove my posts wrong....yet you never do, you simply attack the messenger.....I am always willing and eager to learn new concepts......you like to pretend to be the smartest person in the room, but I have yet to see you bring much knowledge to the table since you quit posting mlb plays. This is "BETTINGTALK.com", it is not debatable that all of my posts revolve around the topic of BETTING. I am quite sure that Goats would agree.