Black Bull's 2012 NCAA Baseball Thread
blackbull
Senior Member
I am not going to keep a record for these as they are going to be offered at various books at various different prices and I don't want to violate any posting rules. Just want to contribute so I will just post what prices I got and the maximum deviation from my line that the play would still be a go for me. Consider them recommendations for your college baseball capping from someone who you do not know in the slightest 
Good luck to those who like college bases and partake in this exciting part of the betting season!
1 Unit / Sam Houston State ML +175 over Arkansas (Good down to ML +155)
1 Unit / Appalachian State ML +170 over Oklahoma (Good down to ML +145)
Good luck to those who like college bases and partake in this exciting part of the betting season!1 Unit / Sam Houston State ML +175 over Arkansas (Good down to ML +155)
1 Unit / Appalachian State ML +170 over Oklahoma (Good down to ML +145)
Comments
1 Unit / Sam Houston State ML +380 over Rice (good down to +370)
1 Unit / Appalachian State ML +415 over Virginia (good down to (+395)
#1: Purdue was my most overrated team in the country (i.e. my rankings versus RPI rankings), they are no longer playing ball.
#2: Appalachian State is my most underrated team in the country and they are sitting in the winner's bracket in Charlottesville after upsetting Oklahoma and UVA, proving that their series win over LSU during the regular season was no fluke.
#3: Sam Houston State was a very underrated team and they battled, but disappointed for the most part. They did upset Rice though and end up being a +money team for us in the tourney (because we picked our spots) after that loss we had with the 2 unit play on Friday (which if anyone watched it, was a wild game for both sides. Sam Houston State was thrown out at 3rd two times and then an Arkansas OF missed a pop up w/ 2 outs, resulting in 2 runs for Sam Houston State. Just a crazy game)
#4: Louisville is also a very underrated team and I will most likely be looking to play them tomorrow b/c of point #5:
#5: Arizona is overrated. The balls they are hitting just have eyes right now. I am telling you, if there was ever a time to go against a team, it is Arizona right now. They are not this good and they will regress.
#6: LSU is also overrated. Yeah, I know, I'm gonna catch some crap on this one, but I don't see it w/ the Tigers. I'm waiting for the bubble to burst and for them to play one of my underrated teams. (I have Oregon State as my #4 most overrated team so we're not going to go against LSU in that spot today)
#7: Arkansas is overrated. Another SEC team that I just am not seeing it and waiting for another spot (obviously Sam Houston State was one spot and we didn't get that one, but hopefully there will be more opportunities which will be dictated by who they play going forward)
#8: Florida is the best team in the country and it is not even close, problem is that the public knows it and so there is zero value right now. They basically start an entire minor league team (including starters and pen). They had a lot of injuries throughout the year that makes their record deceiving and they are healthier than they've been in a while right now. Take note though that despite those injuries they still had more impressive wins than anybody. Taking out teams like FSU, Kentucky, and South Cackalacky (in Columbia!) to the woodshed. Look out for the Gator Chomp! (But also keep yourself in check b/c I have watched these lines all season and only against FSU were they undervalued in one game and you still had to pay top dollar!)
#9: I also have Stanford as an extremely undervalued team, but they are not playing like it right now in the Regionals. They are oh so talented and have a lot of good wins. I look for them to put it into gear soon and be a title contender. They are my number #2 ranked team overall.
#10: Disappointed with the 'Cats from Lexington. That 21 inning game did not help (and we took one on the chin when they lost to Kent State), but I expected more from the Wildcat team. You know what? I was just dead wrong! (They were a +money team for us though so that again speaks to picking your spots)
#11: I am dumbfounded with this St. John's teams. Did not see them breaking out like they have in the slightest. If you saw it coming, you are a better man than me. I thought they were bad and I still think they are bad. If they win a super, then I'll change my mind, but for now I will be eagerly awaiting to see who they face. Probly won't see any value against them though as I doubt the market will take much of SJ, even after winning the Chapel Hill regional.
#12: Also had Fresno State as my #3 most underrated team. So what happened and why didn't we play them? Well they faced my #2 team overall in the country and my #7 most underrated team in Stanford so no play there. Then they played my #5 most underrated team in Michigan State (I know, I'll eat crow on that one. The Spartans were pathetic!) so no play. Then they played Pepperdine and I have them as slightly underrated so no play there either. Just never had a good spot to play them.
#13: Also have Missouri as underrated and we took them against the overrated Wildcats of Arizona (and the Wild Cats made me look stupid and question my sanity ;-), but I couldn't take them against the even more undervalued Louisville squad.
#14: Had San Diego as my #9 most undervalued team and they just sucked it up. No excuses. I was just wrong about the Torreros and it cost us a unit on day 1.
#15: Close Call-> Almost went against the B2B defending National Champs a couple of times. So why didn't I? They were in Columbia and the Gamecocks just work magic in Carolina Stadium. That crowd is ridiculous and despite losing their starting catcher (who has an absolute canon to 2nd and stealing on him is almost like an automatic out), I just didn't see quite enough value. If they play App State in the Supers, we might go against them, but it is just so hard to go against the Gamecocks in Columbia. Takes MAJOR cajones! They value should be there though if that matchup happens. But for now I'll just say: glad we didn't test them in Round 1!
Alright that's 15 good points, we will see what happens going forward. Good luck to all of you and if you disagree with me and want to get on my butt about a bad call (which I know y'all wanted to do through 2 days, trust me I jumped on my own butt!), jump on in here and tell me about it! I have pretty thick skin! ;-)