Betting Talk

Heat/Pacers series

ContrarianContrarian Banned
edited June 2012 in Sports Betting
Fell asleep early and woke up to a nice result from game 3....looks like the Heat are in for quite the test. Can they win four of five sans Bosh?
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Comments

  • CoopsCoops Senior Member
    edited May 2012
    think you meant 3 of 4 without bosh...

    i think the nba will "help" them win 3 of 4...
  • ContrarianContrarian Banned
    edited May 2012
    Coops wrote: »
    think you meant 3 of 4 without bosh...

    Yes, this....tyvm, it was early :-)

    Played the Pacers small for the series, so I hope you're wrong about the conspiracy theory!!!!11!!1
  • lumpy19lumpy19 Senior Member
    edited May 2012
    It seems like I'm the only one who wants to see lebron win a championship. He's such a freak on the basketball court I think it'd be a waste if he never gets it done.
  • UpsilonmanUpsilonman Senior Member
    edited May 2012
    I with you Lumpy!
  • StevieYStevieY Senior Handicapper
    edited May 2012
    lumpy19 wrote: »
    It seems like I'm the only one who wants to see lebron win a championship. He's such a freak on the basketball court I think it'd be a waste if he never gets it done.

    It would be a waste but he needs to change. Physical talent is not everything. He has no heart. He's the best player in the world when the game doesn't matter. Where Jordan used to put himself in position to fail, Lebron tries to avoid those spots.

    He was already trying to give himself an out in game 2 with his "playing power forward is taxing" comment after 1 game of playing it. Magic played center and had one of his best ever playoff games. Lebron always looking for excuses. Never been pushed in his life, now that it is happening, he backs down. Just shut up and play.
  • tribecalledjefftribecalledjeff Senior Member
    edited May 2012
    It tilts me when people say he's not "clutch." There's no such thing, and the entire concept is based on small, irrelevant sample sizes. Lebron's had several great moments in playoff endgames and he's failed a lot, same as everyone else.

    Good read here: http://www.libertyballers.com/2012/2/29/2832299/lebron-james-kobe-bryant-dwyane-wade-clutch-nba-playoffs-4th-quarter
  • StevieYStevieY Senior Handicapper
    edited May 2012
    It tilts me when people say he's not "clutch." There's no such thing, and the entire concept is based on small, irrelevant sample sizes. Lebron's had several great moments in playoff endgames and he's failed a lot, same as everyone else.

    Good read here: http://www.libertyballers.com/2012/2/29/2832299/lebron-james-kobe-bryant-dwyane-wade-clutch-nba-playoffs-4th-quarter

    It's not whether he is clutch or not, it's the fact that he runs from the situation(throw out regular season, none of those games mean anything). Ahead in a series 2-0 and having the series tied 2-2 are completely different spots. He will look for the ball up 2-0, he has shown repeatedly he will run away when it is 2-2 type situation. I don't care if you miss every shot, I don't care if you pass off every shot if it is the play to make, but don't run from the ball. He seemed eager to take shots when they were a bad seed, but once the expectations rose, so did his pussy level. He quit on Cleveland, he ran away on Miami last year. The only two years where they had a legit chance at winning a title and he quit when it got tough.

    He isn't supposed to be like everyone else. He markets himself like he is the new breed king, but when he gets in big spots, he wants to be like everyone else. He wants the money and fame that being King James brings, but when the pressure is on he just wants to be one of the guys. It doesn't mix.
  • tribecalledjefftribecalledjeff Senior Member
    edited May 2012
    StevieY wrote: »
    It's not whether he is clutch or not, it's the fact that he runs from the situation(throw out regular season, none of those games mean anything). Ahead in a series 2-0 and having the series tied 2-2 are completely different spots. He will look for the ball up 2-0, he has shown repeatedly he will run away when it is 2-2 type situation. I don't care if you miss every shot, I don't care if you pass off every shot if it is the play to make, but don't run from the ball. He seemed eager to take shots when they were a bad seed, but once the expectations rose, so did his pussy level. He quit on Cleveland, he ran away on Miami last year. The only two years where they had a legit chance at winning a title and he quit when it got tough.

    He isn't supposed to be like everyone else. He markets himself like he is the new breed king, but when he gets in big spots, he wants to be like everyone else. He wants the money and fame that being King James brings, but when the pressure is on he just wants to be one of the guys. It doesn't mix.

    So we're throwing out regular season, and playoff games in series that aren't close? Ok, that leaves us with about 4 games in his career to look at. We're really going to judge him on that?
  • lumpy19lumpy19 Senior Member
    edited May 2012
    So we're throwing out regular season, and playoff games in series that aren't close? Ok, that leaves us with about 4 games in his career to look at. We're really going to judge him on that?

    I'm not judging him on that...but it is shocking watching him at the end of close important games. He wanted nothing to do with that ball at the end of G2 and it's not the first time I've seen him act like that.
  • tribecalledjefftribecalledjeff Senior Member
    edited May 2012
    It's funny how he never wants anything to do with the ball, but when I actually look at the numbers, his usage rate in endgames is right up there with anyone.
  • jfox1907jfox1907 Senior Member
    edited May 2012
    I'm with you Stevie. If he truly wanted the ball at the end of games he would have it every time. No coach in their right mind would tell him no if he told the coach he wanted to bring the ball up the court in the last possession and get his shot. The man is a beast, he can get to the hole any time he wants, why not do that every time in the final seconds. He refuses, and stands in the corner if his name is not called. Any great player would be jumping up and down for the ball even if the play wasn't designed specifically for him. I was a fan of his when he was in Cleveland because I liked the whole home town kid playing for his home town team, but everything has gone downhill from then when he put the expectations of not one, not two, not three..blah blah blah..LETS GO PACERS! BEATTHEHEAT
  • tribecalledjefftribecalledjeff Senior Member
    edited May 2012
    I realize I'm in the minority when defending him, and I don't even really like him that much. I just think that most people dislike him so much that it slants their view of him. The not one, not two, not three and the decision and all of that stuff has nothing to do with what's on the court, but it has everything to do with people's perceptions of him.
  • StevieYStevieY Senior Handicapper
    edited May 2012
    So we're throwing out regular season, and playoff games in series that aren't close? Ok, that leaves us with about 4 games in his career to look at. We're really going to judge him on that?

    When he practically runs from the ball, yes. The times he had a chance to put an imprint on a tough series and he wants no part of it? If he took the ball and tried to take over the game and failed, I got no problem with that, but if you watched these game, he walked up the court, stayed away from the ball, when he did get the ball he gave it up without being forced to do so. He looked like he wanted no part of it. If they can win a series 4-0, 4-1, hey, he has a chance to win a title, or if Wade can do his job for him. Outside of having the mentality of a 12 year old girl, I have no problem with Lebron. I have no care one way or another about him, not hoping he never wins a title like some haters. I see what I see, you see what you see. Trust me, I don't want anyone else thinking the same way I do. I'll go away now.
  • jaybiz773jaybiz773 Senior Member
    edited May 2012
    It tilts me when people say he's not "clutch." There's no such thing, and the entire concept is based on small, irrelevant sample sizes. Lebron's had several great moments in playoff endgames and he's failed a lot, same as everyone else.

    I'd disagree there. There are clutch stats available, defined as stats in the last 5 min of a game or OT where the game margin is 5pts or less (as you know from the article you linked). Lebron came in 7th this season for clutch points and and his FT % drops to a dismal 68%, 3pt % is 27.3%.

    If you're curious top 5 clutch scorers this season:
    1) Kyrie Irving
    2) KD35
    3) Melo
    4) Westbrook
    5) CP3

    I think he's arguably the best basketball player on the planet, but to say his performance doesn't drop off when the game is on the line is just factually incorrect.
  • tribecalledjefftribecalledjeff Senior Member
    edited May 2012
    jaybiz773 wrote: »
    I'd disagree there. There are clutch stats available, defined as stats in the last 5 min of a game or OT where the game margin is 5pts or less (as you know from the article you linked). Lebron came in 7th this season for clutch points and and his FT % drops to a dismal 68%, 3pt % is 27.3%.

    If you're curious top 5 clutch scorers this season:
    1) Kyrie Irving
    2) KD35
    3) Melo
    4) Westbrook
    5) CP3

    I think he's arguably the best basketball player on the planet, but to say his performance doesn't drop off when the game is on the line is just factually incorrect.

    I'm well aware that there is a definition of clutch and that there are clutch stats available. I just think it's a completely flawed concept. It's such a ridiculously small sample size that it isn't realistic to use it as a valid statistic because there is so much variance. I mean, you're citing a 3pt% that was based on 11 attempts and a FT% that was based on <30.

    He was also the #4 clutch scorer as defined by your stat in 10-11 (84% FT to go with it) and the #1 in 09-10 (80% FT). I think that's meaningless, but if you think it's important, you can't just cherry pick last year's stats to look at.
  • newcombenewcombe Senior Member
    edited May 2012
    IMO, this is very simple and you can throw all stats aside. Use your eyes and watch the tough games in the end and Lebron simply does NOT want the ball. Even more simple, if he did want that responsibility then he would take the ball from whomever and literally manhandle whomever is gaurding him. if he draws a double or triple team along the way then simply find the open man or draw the foul. he is hands down the sickest athlete out there in any sport IMO but never going to win a championship no matter where he goes unless he changes and it doesn't look like that is happening anytime soon. Look at Kobe or a good example is Durant in the lakers game the other night - he took the winning shot to the hole and wasn't going to let anyone stop that from happening. Lebron needs to shoulder the responsibility when hes needed most...

    I'll take a quote from the classic movie Rudy, "if you had 1/2 the heart of rudigers you would've made all american and now you just demoted yourself to the practice squad". Not sure if the quote is exactly right but the point is there...
  • ebemissebemiss Senior Member
    edited May 2012
    See if someone can find one of the final time-out on you tube for the game 4 playoff vs the NY Knicks. I'm almost positive it was right before Wade took the last shot that turned into a turnaround/fade away 3 pointer.

    In the timeout it looks like Spoelstra is trying to give the last shot to LeBron and he gets up from the huddle and vehemently points at Wade. It looked like he was asking out of the play. It was so noticeable that I couldn't believe the commentators didn't say anything.

    He then proceeded to never face or square up to the basket and stood in the corner while Wade was dribbling around.

    After the Finals last year, and a situation in a time out where it looked like he asked out of a play, and then he ultimately never faced the basket during that last play....he's impossible to root for in my opinion.

    I agree that more people fail according to the "clutch" stats, but it's his bad body language, frustration, and a lack of heart that I see. He doesn't have that mean streak, in my opinion.

    He's a freak athletically, mentally not so much.
  • kass101kass101 Senior Member
    edited May 2012
    I'm well aware that there is a definition of clutch and that there are clutch stats available. I just think it's a completely flawed concept. It's such a ridiculously small sample size that it isn't realistic to use it as a valid statistic because there is so much variance. I mean, you're citing a 3pt% that was based on 11 attempts and a FT% that was based on <30.

    He was also the #4 clutch scorer as defined by your stat in 10-11 (84% FT to go with it) and the #1 in 09-10 (80% FT). I think that's meaningless, but if you think it's important, you can't just cherry pick last year's stats to look at.

    You are defending Lebron's ability in the clutch but think the stats are meaningless? So what are you basing it on? What your eyes tells you? If thats the case you should be on board with everyone else who actually watched the games in question.

    personally I dont hate Lebron but I think its pretty clear he joined up with Wade and Bosh, but mostly Wade so he had someone else to take those big time shots for him. I do think some of the blame has go on Wade as well since he added two All-Stars and has not won anything since.
  • tribecalledjefftribecalledjeff Senior Member
    edited May 2012
    I'm saying that there's no such thing as clutch, only variance, but if you do believe in it, those numbers can make an argument that he is clutch.
  • CoopsCoops Senior Member
    edited May 2012
    Jeff - did u believe in Santa Claus ever? The Easter Bunny? Tooth fairy?
  • tribecalledjefftribecalledjeff Senior Member
    edited May 2012
    Coops wrote: »
    Jeff - did u believe in Santa Claus ever? The Easter Bunny? Tooth fairy?

    LOL I tend to see things black and white, yes. Would it shock you to hear that I'm a math teacher, including AP Statistics?
  • CoopsCoops Senior Member
    edited May 2012
    LOL I tend to see things black and white, yes. Would it shock you to hear that I'm a math teacher, including AP Statistics?

    Lol, definitely fitting with how you think. Probably wouldn't shock you to know the only way I passed statistics in college was by cheating. Now I deal complex derivatives.... And we wonder why Wall Street is screwed, lol.
  • Mrtk31Mrtk31 Senior Member
    edited May 2012
    Lebron is a liar. Didn't have to resign in Ctown....but could have said somrthing months before so Cavs could get some freeagents perhaps.
    I hope the guy never wins a title!
  • Mrtk31Mrtk31 Senior Member
    edited May 2012
    Is that comment supossed to make us worried? sorry? impressed with where you work?
  • tribecalledjefftribecalledjeff Senior Member
    edited May 2012
    Mrtk31 wrote: »
    Is that comment supossed to make us worried? sorry? impressed with where you work?

    Not one bit, buddy.

    Coops made a post implying that I think only in terms of logic and black and white and never believed in Santa Claus, etc. I agreed with him, using the fact that I am a math teacher to help validate his notion that I am a black and white type thinker. Coops plays games by "feel," I play based on numbers, which is why I referenced the Statistics course.
  • tribecalledjefftribecalledjeff Senior Member
    edited May 2012
    While I'm in this thread, I'll just mention:

    40 points, 18 boards, 9 assists, 2 steals, 2 blocks. He kept the Heat in the game by himself in the first half and played huge the entire game (44 minutes). He wanted the ball at the end, kept it to get fouled, made 3/4 free throws. A dominating performance in a very big game from Lebron. No, there was no "big moment" at the end, but that's due to him being so dominant throughout that there was no need for that.
  • lumpy19lumpy19 Senior Member
    edited May 2012
    While I'm in this thread, I'll just mention:

    40 points, 18 boards, 9 assists, 2 steals, 2 blocks. He kept the Heat in the game by himself in the first half and played huge the entire game (44 minutes). He wanted the ball at the end, kept it to get fouled, made 3/4 free throws. A dominating performance in a very big game from Lebron. No, there was no "big moment" at the end, but that's due to him being so dominant throughout that there was no need for that.

    Just nasty, what a game. Hope he can do that a few more times, I'd like to see Miami/Boston
  • spiderman77spiderman77 Senior Member
    edited May 2012
    I love the LeBron banter. Being from Cleveland, it's been an oft debated topic in my circles. The majority of Clevelanders loathe him. I usually find myself defending him, at least to a point. He was responsible for the most exciting period of basketball that Cleveland has ever seen. We had some good times in the Price/Daugherty/Nance era, but as good as that team was, they just couldn't get shots in critical situations when defenses tightened up. Enter LeBron. By most measures, he was a very good clutch player in his tenure with the Cavs. He did have his free throw issues and he did get criticized for passing on some game winning shots, but when he did take the shots he was near the top in success rate. IMO, there's a happy compromise between taking the big time shot and knowing when to pass it to somebody else. I thought that in his time with Cleveland, he erred a little too much on the side of deferring to others, but most of the failures were due to a hapless cast around him. In his defense, he didn't take any of the ridiculous shots I've seen Kobe take with three guys draped all over him. So from the clutch perspective, I defend him since when he was "the man" in Cleveland, he performed very well in the role.

    With that said, there are a lot of reasons to hate him. He flat out quit after the first quarter of the playoff game against Boston. Speculation is Shaq called him out in the huddle between quarters, LeBron took exception to it, and he "took his toys and went home" like a 5-year old. There's no excuse for that and in my mind that's the worst thing he ever did to Cleveland. For the majority of Clevelanders, the "Decision" was the straw that broke the camel's back. Many felt like LBJ personally gave them the finger by doing things the way he did. I can't blame him for leaving, but the way he did it was bush league. Keep in mind that a lot of the reason he was never surrounded with a good supporting cast in Cleveland was his own doing. He was the main driver behind re-signing Ilgauskas to a large multi-year deal that turned out to be a huge salary cap constraint for the Cavs going forward. And his lack of commitment to stay in Cleveland kept free agents from signing in the last few years of his tenure in Cleveland.

    The one thing that I always thought would hold LeBron back was his lack of will to win at all costs. I often argued this topic with fellow Cavs fans in his early years. They saw talent that exceeded that of Jordan's (to which I didn't argue), so they assumed he would progress to or beyond Jordan's level. It never happened and never will, primarily because he doesn't have the ultra type A personality that separates legends from very good players. I cringed when I saw his post game interviews after tough losses where he would he would be unhappy about the loss, but it was obvious that he wasn't going to lose any sleep over it. I often wonder whether the big shots that Paxson and Kerr made for Jordan were because they were that good or they were afraid of getting their asses kicked by MJ if they missed. Anyway, I don't really fault LeBron for having the personality he has. I reality, very few have the win at all costs personality of MJ and Tiger Woods. Some would say it's actually a curse even though it leads to the type of success seen by very few.
  • spiderman77spiderman77 Senior Member
    edited May 2012
    Here’s my take on the playoffs:

    Sixers – obviously no chance, no explanation needed

    Celtics – I’m surprised at how much love there still is for this team; many thought they were the most likely team to upset the Heat after Rose went down . . . I don’t see it . . . they’re old and broken down just like they have been the last couple years . . . yes, they have the experience and play defense and have a go to clutch player (Pierce), but in the end the age and lack of hunger makes them a long shot at best

    Lakers – too dysfunctional . . . the aging Kobe can’t do it all and his attempts to solicit help by calling out players hasn’t worked all that well . . . the Lakers future looks like it’s in the past

    Pacers – nice team, better than I thought, now I see how they won as many games as they did in the regular season . . . their major flaw is a the lack of a clutch player . . . I suppose Granger could be that player someday, but not yet

    Now the legitimate title contenders:

    Spurs – obviously a very good team and justifiably the current chalk to win the title, but I’m not giving it to them just yet . . . they have had by far the easiest path through the playoffs, which is good from a rest standpoint, but no so good from a being tested standpoint . . . people disagree with me, but I don’t see the player that will make the clutch shot for them, and I don’t see them being good enough to steamroll the opposition (the Jazz and the banged up Clippers are in a different league than the teams they are going to face going forward) . . . as I recall, the player that made the most clutch shots for them in their previous titles was big shot Bob and my guess is he isn’t coming out of the mothballs to hit any more game winners . . . I equate this team to my Cavs of the 80’s with Price, Daugherty, and Nance who were phenomenal players that couldn’t create their own shot . . . maybe Parker can now that his perimeter shooting has improved, although I would bet against him hitting a perimeter jumper with the game on the line . . . maybe Ginolbi, but I’ll make him drive and count on the help defense . . . we’ll see . . . Barkley giving them the title is the kiss of death in my mind (talking heads like him and Scoop Jackson and Chris Brousard are generally wrong . . . on the other hand, Tim Legler is usually spot on with his analysis and predictions)

    OKC – a very talented team . . . clutch performer in Durant . . . but they don’t play championship level defense, even though Ibaka’s guarding of the rim goes a long way to hiding the lack of overall team defense . . . and a point guard that shoots 20+ times a game??

    Heat – the most talented team individually, but the players are not complimentary and they lack depth . . . Bosh will have to play for them to have any chance to beat the winner of the west

    To me, all three of the legitimate contenders are flawed. Before Rose went down, I thought the Bulls were the most complete team and were my pick to win the title.

    Now, gun to my head, I’d take the Heat, assuming Bosh returns.
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