I believe playing this prop is an unbeatable game. 1 inning is a very small part of the game. That makes the outcome very unpredictable. 30c is a lot of juice. It should be trivially easy for a book to make a line where the fair price is somewhere in the middle. So I expect that +EV bets in this market are rare.
I believe playing this prop is an unbeatable game. 1 inning is a very small part of the game. That makes the outcome very unpredictable.
U should ask the guy who makes over 200 units a year on this prop (2years in a row). (and another 1 I know made +80 units last year. At +11 units in 2012 so far,) Cannot name other sites here, but search for it and you should find it.
All I mean is: If maidenguy thinks he has an edge, let him try to beat the books. If he does, you'll have another guy/thread to help you pad your bankroll.
I believe playing this prop is an unbeatable game. 1 inning is a very small part of the game. That makes the outcome very unpredictable. 30c is a lot of juice. It should be trivially easy for a book to make a line where the fair price is somewhere in the middle. So I expect that +EV bets in this market are rare.
bookmaker regularly charges 40 cents(-120/-120) on props and they're about the easiest bet around to beat.
U should ask the guy who makes over 200 units a year on this prop (2years in a row). (and another 1 I know made +80 units last year. At +11 units in 2012 so far,) Cannot name other sites here, but search for it and you should find it.
All I mean is: If maidenguy thinks he has an edge, let him try to beat the books. If he does, you'll have another guy/thread to help you pad your bankroll.
Can you give us a hint what site has this- I'd like to check him out.
My local also has a similar prop, "Who Will Score First?" Anyone have any experience with this?
Can't post that, without violating the rules. The guy has turned into a tout a year ago. I'll try to explain what he did:
If u go back to Rhinoceros' comment above (and I agree with him)....he states that 1 inning is really a small part of a whole game and that the outcome of the bet is very unpredictable. Same goes for the books, I'm sure they have their computermodels which spit out the numbers for them for a 1st inning score depending on the teams and pitchers facing each other. But it has a pretty big 'crapshoot' factor attached to it......and that works in your favour.
So what this guy did was the following. He took every start time of games (on a given day that might be 1pm, 2pm, 3pm, 7pm, 8pm, 10pm) and searched for the highest payouts for those time slots. So if there were 3 games starting at 1pm and their lines for scores in the first inning looked like this
Team A vs Team B: YES score 1st inn +110/ NO score 1st inn -130
Team C vs Team YES score 1st inn +135/ NO score 1st inn -120
Team E vs Team F: YES score 1st inn -130/ NO score 1st inn -105
For 1pm the bet would be on Team C/D YES Score 1st inn. If the highest payout was on a NO, then the NO would be the bet. But he only bet on + payouts, he never laid any juice.
If the first time slot lost, he would chase with the highest paying bet for the second time slot and so forth, up to a maximum of 4 times. Remember, due the randomness of a run being scored, he hit quitte often on those +money bets. He made tweaks to his system (I'm talking 2010 here) and started applying Labouchere and Martingale strategies to it, then he also started using 1 system for dogs and another system for fave's etc etc. During the course of a year he kept tweaking it, and at the end decided which strategy was best. Bear in mind that the max bet on this prop is around $500 at most online books, so a unit for most of his followers would be $50 (otherwise you can't chase)
The other guy I referred to is a computer whiz who has his own blog. He just uses the info given for teams' scoring tendencies (which u can also find on MLB's site) and calculates which are the best bets. He also chases, and is up 11 units so far this season.
I know that chasing is not the way to go, nor are labouchere or martingale systems,.......but these guys have just been doing it and it works for them. Please note that I just explained what 'they' are doing. It's not what I personally would recommend doing.
Going to try to contact them to see if I can provide more info. If so, i will post it here.
For 1pm the bet would be on Team C/D YES Score 1st inn. If the highest payout was on a NO, then the NO would be the bet. But he only bet on + payouts, he never laid any juice.
Just because someone is betting a + number doesn't mean they aren't paying vig
Sorry for the losers. Going to go back and trial test this before I start posting again. Even though it's early I hate giving out losers. With totals being down this year( batting averages down and pitchers ERA being lower than in years past) and most of my plays being" Yes" to this prop the best thing to do is play this on paper and not post until I feel confident with it.
Sorry for the losers. Going to go back and trial test this before I start posting again. Even though it's early I hate giving out losers. With totals being down this year( batting averages down and pitchers ERA being lower than in years past) and most of my plays being" Yes" to this prop the best thing to do is play this on paper and not post until I feel confident with it.
I think you mentioned you come up with your own number for these. I'd recommend comparing your number with the number pinnacle opens/closes at. This will give you a good idea if your model is accurate. This prop is very beatable and Yes is usually the right side so I think you're in the right area. I don't generate my own # but I do bet this prop every day and 95% of my bets are on Yes.
The numbers I came up for yesterday were Wash/Pitt +135 which I bet at +160 and for the Cleve/Balt contest I had it at -112 for the "YES" and bet it at +100 at Heritage. I don't check Pinny as much as I used to since they left the US but what you say is right on, thanks.
Can't post that, without violating the rules. The guy has turned into a tout a year ago. I'll try to explain what he did:
If u go back to Rhinoceros' comment above (and I agree with him)....he states that 1 inning is really a small part of a whole game and that the outcome of the bet is very unpredictable. Same goes for the books, I'm sure they have their computermodels which spit out the numbers for them for a 1st inning score depending on the teams and pitchers facing each other. But it has a pretty big 'crapshoot' factor attached to it......and that works in your favour.
So what this guy did was the following. He took every start time of games (on a given day that might be 1pm, 2pm, 3pm, 7pm, 8pm, 10pm) and searched for the highest payouts for those time slots. So if there were 3 games starting at 1pm and their lines for scores in the first inning looked like this
Team A vs Team B: YES score 1st inn +110/ NO score 1st inn -130
Team C vs Team YES score 1st inn +135/ NO score 1st inn -120
Team E vs Team F: YES score 1st inn -130/ NO score 1st inn -105
For 1pm the bet would be on Team C/D YES Score 1st inn. If the highest payout was on a NO, then the NO would be the bet. But he only bet on + payouts, he never laid any juice.
If the first time slot lost, he would chase with the highest paying bet for the second time slot and so forth, up to a maximum of 4 times. Remember, due the randomness of a run being scored, he hit quitte often on those +money bets. He made tweaks to his system (I'm talking 2010 here) and started applying Labouchere and Martingale strategies to it, then he also started using 1 system for dogs and another system for fave's etc etc. During the course of a year he kept tweaking it, and at the end decided which strategy was best. Bear in mind that the max bet on this prop is around $500 at most online books, so a unit for most of his followers would be $50 (otherwise you can't chase)
The other guy I referred to is a computer whiz who has his own blog. He just uses the info given for teams' scoring tendencies (which u can also find on MLB's site) and calculates which are the best bets. He also chases, and is up 11 units so far this season.
I know that chasing is not the way to go, nor are labouchere or martingale systems,.......but these guys have just been doing it and it works for them. Please note that I just explained what 'they' are doing. It's not what I personally would recommend doing.
Going to try to contact them to see if I can provide more info. If so, i will post it here.
I am going to add my 5 cents here to this discussion.... (and a lot are going to think I am crazy or my numbers are crazy, but it is working for me so far...)
I like to bet props a lot. I like the First Inning props because they produce a fast result and the juice is not as high sometimes as the juice on many money lines. Also you don't have to wait 3 hours for the game to end. In 30 minutes, you have a result, and depending on results, you can bet on more games.
That being said, I keep of a lot of statistics and situationals. For the First Inning bet I take The top 4 "NO" teams and the 4 top "YES" teams. Keep in mind that their hit rate in all cases is above 65% (except for 1 team that is in 61% currently). I pull the trigger for ALL their games. The only time I stop and make it a game time decision is when the combine ERA of both teams is too high ( in case of a "NO" bet) or too low (in case of a "YES" bet). But if you pull the trigger religiously on all games, you would be in positive units now, and probably end the year in positive units.
Using the top 4 "NO" teams and the top "YES" teams since the start of the season and placing an average line of -140 on all of them, you would be up around +62 Units now.
Here are my top 4 teams in each category with their records and units won based on an average line of -140. keep in mind that my records run through May 8. Haven't updated the last 2 days yet.
TOP "NO" Teams:
WON LOST
1. Washington 23 6 +12.14 Units
2. Oakland 22 8 +10.00 Units
3. Toronto 20 10 + 7.14 Units
4. Chi Soxs 19 12 + 5.00 Units
TOP "YES" Teams
WON LOST
1. Colorado 20 9 +7.85 Units
2. St. Louis 20 10 +7.14 Units
3. NY Yankees 19 10 +6.42 Units
4. Arizona 20 11 +6.42 Units
I hope this helps some of you. Fade or just simply forget it if you don't agree. It is just working well for me now and wanted to share .....
Using the top 4 "NO" teams and the top "YES" teams since the start of the season and placing an average line of -140 on all of them, you would be up around +62 Units now.
The problem with this in general is that you didn't know who would be the top 4 prior to the season starting (in the same way you don't know which will be the top 4 teams ATS before the season). You're using a small sample size and hoping the results continue going forward... which in general isn't very sound, mathematically speaking. Just adding some food for thought, not trying to be critical of you personally. It's clear that you're a recreational bettor from the "they produce a fast result" comment so I'm glad you've found a way to enjoy betting and had some success. Hope it continues.
You are right on everything. Waited to have a sample size of 15 games on each team to start looking for trends. Keep in mind I do this as a side income, nothing serious and my max unit is $100, but trying to learn from all serious bettors here in the forum.
I do try to look for statistical trends (don't know if that is a good approach or not...) and follow them conservatively. Just wanted to share interesting "fun" stats up to this point.
I do try to look for statistical trends (don't know if that is a good approach or not...) and follow them conservatively.
I don't think there's anything wrong with the approach as a starting point, but as I mentioned, the issue is determining if the trend has predictive value (i.e. will continue going forward). With such a small sample size, it would be good if you had some logic or reasoning to go along with the raw data that would lead you to believe the trend will continue. Most trends like that tend to either regress on their own or the market will adjust to force the regression. That said, prop markets are less likely to adjust due to low limits and less attention given by the books than something obvious in a big market.
By no means am I an expert, just trying to give you some issues to consider. BTW, always nice when someone takes a response constructively (as intended) rather than get defensive. Continued success.
Just went thru the games for tonight and only three games have an edge by my numbers but not large enough. I would like to keep this thread open and post if I see anything or anyone else wants to add in. And Goats, you do a great job here.
Just went thru the games for tonight and only three games have an edge by my numbers but not large enough. I would like to keep this thread open and post if I see anything or anyone else wants to add in. And Goats, you do a great job here.
Thanks for the compliment, I try. If at some point you want to go back to posting picks to keeping a record, by all means feel free start another thread so they don't get lost and the discussion can continue in this thread.
I will try to create a new thread over the weekend updating the First Inning team stats. Sometimes, do to time constraints I can't update it daily, but will try to commit to updating it daily. Each one can then draw their own conclusions.....
I believe playing this prop is an unbeatable game. 1 inning is a very small part of the game. That makes the outcome very unpredictable. 30c is a lot of juice. It should be trivially easy for a book to make a line where the fair price is somewhere in the middle. So I expect that +EV bets in this market are rare.
This is a pretty widely available prop, most books offer it and at times the odds can differ substantially between books (to the point that arbs are sometimes available). I have not done any work on this prop, but such variances in pricing would suggest that it is most certainly beatable. Take a look at the differences between pinny and bookmaker every day just for an idea.
maidenguy
Senior Member
Comments
U should ask the guy who makes over 200 units a year on this prop (2years in a row). (and another 1 I know made +80 units last year. At +11 units in 2012 so far,) Cannot name other sites here, but search for it and you should find it.
All I mean is: If maidenguy thinks he has an edge, let him try to beat the books. If he does, you'll have another guy/thread to help you pad your bankroll.
bookmaker regularly charges 40 cents(-120/-120) on props and they're about the easiest bet around to beat.
Can you give us a hint what site has this- I'd like to check him out.
My local also has a similar prop, "Who Will Score First?" Anyone have any experience with this?
Sportsguy
If u go back to Rhinoceros' comment above (and I agree with him)....he states that 1 inning is really a small part of a whole game and that the outcome of the bet is very unpredictable. Same goes for the books, I'm sure they have their computermodels which spit out the numbers for them for a 1st inning score depending on the teams and pitchers facing each other. But it has a pretty big 'crapshoot' factor attached to it......and that works in your favour.
So what this guy did was the following. He took every start time of games (on a given day that might be 1pm, 2pm, 3pm, 7pm, 8pm, 10pm) and searched for the highest payouts for those time slots. So if there were 3 games starting at 1pm and their lines for scores in the first inning looked like this
Team A vs Team B: YES score 1st inn +110/ NO score 1st inn -130
Team C vs Team
Team E vs Team F: YES score 1st inn -130/ NO score 1st inn -105
For 1pm the bet would be on Team C/D YES Score 1st inn. If the highest payout was on a NO, then the NO would be the bet. But he only bet on + payouts, he never laid any juice.
If the first time slot lost, he would chase with the highest paying bet for the second time slot and so forth, up to a maximum of 4 times. Remember, due the randomness of a run being scored, he hit quitte often on those +money bets. He made tweaks to his system (I'm talking 2010 here) and started applying Labouchere and Martingale strategies to it, then he also started using 1 system for dogs and another system for fave's etc etc. During the course of a year he kept tweaking it, and at the end decided which strategy was best. Bear in mind that the max bet on this prop is around $500 at most online books, so a unit for most of his followers would be $50 (otherwise you can't chase)
The other guy I referred to is a computer whiz who has his own blog. He just uses the info given for teams' scoring tendencies (which u can also find on MLB's site) and calculates which are the best bets. He also chases, and is up 11 units so far this season.
I know that chasing is not the way to go, nor are labouchere or martingale systems,.......but these guys have just been doing it and it works for them. Please note that I just explained what 'they' are doing. It's not what I personally would recommend doing.
Going to try to contact them to see if I can provide more info. If so, i will post it here.
Just because someone is betting a + number doesn't mean they aren't paying vig
Learning more in just a few months on this forum, than I learned in years on others.
Thanks
Cleveland/Boston- YES -101 Pinnacle
+1
Sorry your thread got a little hijacked maidenguy, gl.
Sorry for the losers. Going to go back and trial test this before I start posting again. Even though it's early I hate giving out losers. With totals being down this year( batting averages down and pitchers ERA being lower than in years past) and most of my plays being" Yes" to this prop the best thing to do is play this on paper and not post until I feel confident with it.
I think you mentioned you come up with your own number for these. I'd recommend comparing your number with the number pinnacle opens/closes at. This will give you a good idea if your model is accurate. This prop is very beatable and Yes is usually the right side so I think you're in the right area. I don't generate my own # but I do bet this prop every day and 95% of my bets are on Yes.
This is amazingly awful.
I like to bet props a lot. I like the First Inning props because they produce a fast result and the juice is not as high sometimes as the juice on many money lines. Also you don't have to wait 3 hours for the game to end. In 30 minutes, you have a result, and depending on results, you can bet on more games.
That being said, I keep of a lot of statistics and situationals. For the First Inning bet I take The top 4 "NO" teams and the 4 top "YES" teams. Keep in mind that their hit rate in all cases is above 65% (except for 1 team that is in 61% currently). I pull the trigger for ALL their games. The only time I stop and make it a game time decision is when the combine ERA of both teams is too high ( in case of a "NO" bet) or too low (in case of a "YES" bet). But if you pull the trigger religiously on all games, you would be in positive units now, and probably end the year in positive units.
Using the top 4 "NO" teams and the top "YES" teams since the start of the season and placing an average line of -140 on all of them, you would be up around +62 Units now.
Here are my top 4 teams in each category with their records and units won based on an average line of -140. keep in mind that my records run through May 8. Haven't updated the last 2 days yet.
TOP "NO" Teams:
WON LOST
1. Washington 23 6 +12.14 Units
2. Oakland 22 8 +10.00 Units
3. Toronto 20 10 + 7.14 Units
4. Chi Soxs 19 12 + 5.00 Units
TOP "YES" Teams
WON LOST
1. Colorado 20 9 +7.85 Units
2. St. Louis 20 10 +7.14 Units
3. NY Yankees 19 10 +6.42 Units
4. Arizona 20 11 +6.42 Units
I hope this helps some of you. Fade or just simply forget it if you don't agree. It is just working well for me now and wanted to share .....
The problem with this in general is that you didn't know who would be the top 4 prior to the season starting (in the same way you don't know which will be the top 4 teams ATS before the season). You're using a small sample size and hoping the results continue going forward... which in general isn't very sound, mathematically speaking. Just adding some food for thought, not trying to be critical of you personally. It's clear that you're a recreational bettor from the "they produce a fast result" comment so I'm glad you've found a way to enjoy betting and had some success. Hope it continues.
I do try to look for statistical trends (don't know if that is a good approach or not...) and follow them conservatively. Just wanted to share interesting "fun" stats up to this point.
Your insight highly appreciated always. Thanks.
I don't think there's anything wrong with the approach as a starting point, but as I mentioned, the issue is determining if the trend has predictive value (i.e. will continue going forward). With such a small sample size, it would be good if you had some logic or reasoning to go along with the raw data that would lead you to believe the trend will continue. Most trends like that tend to either regress on their own or the market will adjust to force the regression. That said, prop markets are less likely to adjust due to low limits and less attention given by the books than something obvious in a big market.
By no means am I an expert, just trying to give you some issues to consider. BTW, always nice when someone takes a response constructively (as intended) rather than get defensive. Continued success.
Thanks for the compliment, I try. If at some point you want to go back to posting picks to keeping a record, by all means feel free start another thread so they don't get lost and the discussion can continue in this thread.
Hope it helps some of you.
This is a pretty widely available prop, most books offer it and at times the odds can differ substantially between books (to the point that arbs are sometimes available). I have not done any work on this prop, but such variances in pricing would suggest that it is most certainly beatable. Take a look at the differences between pinny and bookmaker every day just for an idea.