NCAAF Week 12 Plays

horn

Overall: 72-77 (-11.83 units)
Sides: 26-31 (-8.28 units)
Totals: 40-39 (-2.90 units)
Team Totals: 1-2 (-1.30 units)
1H: 3-1 (+1.90 units)
2H: 1-2 (-1.25 units)
ML: 0-1 (-1 unit)
Props: 1-0 (+1 unit)

346 Kent State -3
351 New Mexico State +23
354 utep +14
360 Washington State +4
365 Washington -2.5
372 Michigan -2.5
388 Nevada -6.5
410 North Texas +3

341 Vanderbilt/Tennessee OVER 44
401 USC/Oregon OVER 66

22209 SMU TT OVER 27.5 -115

2401 USC/Oregon OVER 33.5


Also played UTEP +14, will wait to see if it goes back. Also going to play one more ugly dog for sure but want to wait because I think the fav may take money and I'm just shy of a nice number.

beefcake

Sorry about the shitty year man..Just do the MM thing and you will be fine..

horn

Thanks, beef. It happens, just gotta learn from the mistakes and try to avoid making some of them moving forward.



Also played Mich -2.5, forgot that one, so will wait and see if that one goes back to 2.5 as well.

horn

410 North Texas +3

horn

365 Washington -2.5
372 Michigan -2.5

lumpy19

horn wrote: »

365 Washington -2.5
372 Michigan -2.5

Price downgraded to Q for Washington, still a play?

horn

lumpy19 wrote: »

Price downgraded to Q for Washington, still a play?

At less than 3, I have to bet it with Pinnochio at QB. Maybe I win one of these joe sides that have been so profitable for so many this year, prob not, but maybe I get lucky..

horn

401 USC/Oregon OVER 66

milfhunter

horn thoughts on usc + the points?

horn

I worry about their defensive depth. While they have an abundance of talent, I have felt several games, especially in the losses, they have gotten gassed. I'm pretty sure the loss of schollys have already been implemented and if so, that could be a major reason for it. Couple that with the fact that Oregon is nasty in the second half and it gets a bit more bothersome. I have little doubt they can have success offensively but I worry the Ducks will be tough to stop. I still lean that way but have learned if you think the dog can score in Eugene, it's best to bet the over. Oregon has averaged right around 50 ppg at home past several seasons. I would prefer USC 1h but would lean the +15, felt over was better.

horn

341 Vanderbilt/Tennessee OVER 44

horn

Prop I played in WMU/MOH:

Nick Harwell OVER 114.5 Receiving Yards -110

Gone over this number in 6 of 9 games he's played in this season. Coming off of a 15 for 229 game and also has big play potential with a 4 for 117 day against the Zips. All MOH does is pass, game has potential to be a back and forth shootout and WMU is suspect in pass defense. Several of the player props looked good in this one, went with Harwell and hope that Dysert continues to just look and throw to him all game.

turksure

Like it, bet it today at over 67, should
still go higher

Also like 399 Okla over 75, Baylor a better team a home, aver 50 points a game per the OK am radio

horn

turksure wrote: »

Like it, bet it today at over 67.5, should
still go higher

Harwell's total was at 67.5??

turksure

who is Harwell, small edit to my post

turksure

Horn talking about Oreg over, thought I hit the quote reply

horn

bout gave me a heart attack, lol. GL to us, really looking forward to watching as a CFB fan.

footballpix

horn wrote: »

I worry about their defensive depth. While they have an abundance of talent, I have felt several games, especially in the losses, they have gotten gassed. I'm pretty sure the loss of schollys have already been implemented and if so, that could be a major reason for it. Couple that with the fact that Oregon is nasty in the second half and it gets a bit more bothersome. I have little doubt they can have success offensively but I worry the Ducks will be tough to stop. I still lean that way but have learned if you think the dog can score in Eugene, it's best to bet the over. Oregon has averaged right around 50 ppg at home past several seasons. I would prefer USC 1h but would lean the +15, felt over was better.

USC was also hurt by the option that the players had of transferring without penalty after the sanctions. They lost a lot of depth with that as well as the scholarship deductions.

horn

footballpix wrote: »

USC was also hurt by the option that the players had of transferring without penalty after the sanctions. They lost a lot of depth with that as well as the scholarship deductions.

That makes sense - thanks. I had an O7.5 bet on them for seaosn so I have watched them pretty closely, think they could be a really good team next year if Barkley hangs out - which i doubt he does.

footballpix

I would be surprised if he does too. But Luck did, so it wouldn't be the most shocking thing. The thing is that USC can compete for a National Title next year after sitting out last season and this one, and they do have two strong classes of recruits the past two seasons. So he may stay for that. This is a good article I just Googled:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/699381-usc-football-trojans-can-win-the-2012-bcs-national-championship

Coops

horn wrote: »

Prop I played in WMU/MOH:

Nick Harwell OVER 114.5 Receiving Yards -110

Gone over this number in 6 of 9 games he's played in this season. Coming off of a 15 for 229 game and also has big play potential with a 4 for 117 day against the Zips. All MOH does is pass, game has potential to be a back and forth shootout and WMU is suspect in pass defense. Several of the player props looked good in this one, went with Harwell and hope that Dysert continues to just look and throw to him all game.

Nice call buddy!

horn

Prop I played:

Giovanni Bernard OVER 79.5 Rushing Yards -115 (UNC/VT)

Gone over number in 7 of 10 this season and I think there will be an emphasis placed on the ground game with VT playing a lot of nickel and UNC wanting to play some ball control. VT rush defense not as impressive to me as the numbers indicate. Only given up 100 yar rusher once this year (Lamar Miller 166) but I think Bernard will get close to it if he has 23 or so attempts

originalokie

which book do u use for props LB?

horn

I have a local that seems to copy 5dimes

horn

horn wrote: »

Prop I played:

Giovanni Bernard OVER 79.5 Rushing Yards -115 (UNC/VT)

Gone over number in 7 of 10 this season and I think there will be an emphasis placed on the ground game with VT playing a lot of nickel and UNC wanting to play some ball control. VT rush defense not as impressive to me as the numbers indicate. Only given up 100 yar rusher once this year (Lamar Miller 166) but I think Bernard will get close to it if he has 23 or so attempts

Tough luck. Bernard knocked out of game with 5 min to go in 1h. 10 rushes for 45. Slight chance he comes back but UNC always seems to be cautious with head/neck injuries.

horn

354 utep +14

horn

Prop I played:

James White Over 61.5 yards rushing -160 (okie St/Iowa st)

horn

Didn't get it done on the prop last night:

Two that I played that don't fit the grading criteria and aren't WA

Dennis Johnson OVER 67.5 Rushing Yards -110 (Miss St/Arkansas)

Minnesota Team Total OVER 20.5 -115 (This is 21 everywhere that I've seen on screen but figured that I'd throw it out there if anyone has an out, leaned that way, etc)

homerplayer

horn wrote: »

Thanks, beef. It happens, just gotta learn from the mistakes and try to avoid making some of them moving forward.

But how do you know you made mistakes? Sure you have some bad beats in there, as well as a few lucky wins. But they call it Gambler's Ruin for a reason.

The House has about an infinite BR compared to us individual cappers trying to beat an Efficient Market. You will prosper through good runs and hopefully survive bad runs, you can't beat the math. Streaks of both winning and losing will happen. My current losing streak has been going on since Mid-July. Went completely ice cold end of October into November. You really feel that 4.54% House Edge (-110) during the losing streaks.

Point is, don't assume you made mistakes. By all means go back and see if games played out the way you expected. Turnovers? You can't cap those. People will disagree but I still have never seen anyone, anywhere have the balls to even attempt to forecast the turnovers in a game. It is impossible. Even the strongest game you have ever seen in your life will probably have less than a 70% chance of cashing.

Games sticking in my craw as I write this. Losing Over in the Fins/Chiefs game when KC had 2 first and goals to go in the 4th quarter. Skins putting up like 450 yards on the Cards and only scoring 22 points.

Review when the season ends and if a pattern of mistakes appears, tweak your approach. You can't win ever year.

Stupid math.

horn

I think the key is doing a thorough review at the end of the year to see if you can pick up on those issues. Good post per usual, homie.

22209 SMU TT OVER 27.5 -115

jaanis

keep your chin up horny!