Betting Talk

NCAAF Week 9 Plays

hornhorn Super Moderator
edited October 2011 in Sports Betting
Overall: 66-63 (-2.30 units)
Sides: 25-25 (-2.60 units)
Totals: 37-33 (+.70 units)
Team Totals: 0-1 (-1.15 units)
1H: 2-0 (+2 units)
2H: 1-2 (-1.25 units)
ML: 0-1 (-1 unit)
Props: 1-0 (+1 unit)

114 Marshall -6.5
202 Louisiana Monroe -4.5

101 Troy/FIU OVER 55
143 Ole Miss/Auburn OVER 50
157 Tulane/ECU OVER 58.5
168 SJSU/LA Tech OVER 50
173 Hawaii/Idaho OVER 56
177 Oregon State/Utah OVER 46
193 So Miss/UTEP OVER 55
197 Nevada/New Mexico State OVER 57.5

1124 Boston College/Maryland UNDER 25 1H
1138 WVU/Rutgers UNDER 25 1H
22171 Navy Team Total OVER 19 -115
22215 Wyoming Team Total OVER 19 -115
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Comments

  • hornhorn Super Moderator
    edited October 2011
    Probably going to be treading lightly, may not have much this week or really for rest of regular season. Wind has been taken out of sails, so to speak, and don't really feel like spending much time doing this anymore. Have a few I want to bet if the numbers allow and will and will post them a bit sooner after I bet them so that posting already beat up numbers won't come into play as much. GL
  • TotallyTiltTotallyTilt Senior Member
    edited October 2011
    Hang in there Horn, been a tough stretch but overall you still have a great record. I haven't followed how your picks have done against the closing line this year but last year they were doing extremely well, better than any handicapper I followed with the exception of RAS. I for one really appreciate all your hard work and your picks.
  • hornhorn Super Moderator
    edited October 2011
    Same story this year with crushing close and little to show for it. It's just really not worth the time investment right now, was +25.5 to the better of the close yesterday (The actual numbers I bet, not necessarily posted) on the 17 full unit or greater plays I made but was sub .500 yet again and if it wasn't for the big plays I made, I would have somehow lost money another week. We'll see if there is anything this week but it won't be anywhere close to the volume that i have been posting.
  • StackAttackStackAttack Senior Member
    edited October 2011
    Hang in there man. I dont have to tell you about negative variance or anything like that. But just keep at it. You are beating the close most of the time and thats all you can ask for. As someone who has been on this forum for awhile...I can say Ive been surprised by the # of plays youve had this yr and you arent posting on Sunday night like in yr's past. Im sure you have reasons for both. But sometime in this game, changing up how your playing can get you out of a funk. trust your skills and you will be fine in the long run, you have a grasp on the game that I believe, is second to none, and I know a lot of ppl I respect who go at it like you do every wk. We have all been frustrated before, but dont like it change how you play.

    best of luck the rest of the year, and I look forward to seeing what you like moving forward.
  • hornhorn Super Moderator
    edited October 2011
    202 Louisiana Monroe -4.5
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited October 2011
    Keep plugging along man. Variance is a bitch sometimes.
  • hornhorn Super Moderator
    edited October 2011
    114 Marshall -6.5
  • BetATLBetATL Super Moderator
    edited October 2011
    Keep grinding and enjoy the season Bama is having... you gonna be in BD next Saturday?
  • hornhorn Super Moderator
    edited October 2011
    BetATL wrote: »
    Keep grinding and enjoy the season Bama is having... you gonna be in BD next Saturday?

    Ya, I'll be there - got a student ticket converted so I can be in the midst of the mayhem. Stoked they made it work with being a night game. Biggest SEC Regular Season Game in History from what I can recall. Don't ever remember there being a 1 v 2 matchup played that's not in SECCG.
  • stucrossstucross Senior Member
    edited October 2011
    Lsu will win that game and then the hogs will beat lsu once again.
  • originalokieoriginalokie Senior Member
    edited October 2011
    Mama has banners all over the trailor!!!

    "This Is Horn's Week"

    I know she's talking football because you aren't getting any this week either!

    BEST LB

    Handicapping can be like a roller coaster - Finish on top of the ride!
  • lumpy19lumpy19 Senior Member
    edited October 2011
    Thoughts on Bama -4 in 2 weeks?
  • hornhorn Super Moderator
    edited October 2011
    lumpy19 wrote: »
    Thoughts on Bama -4 in 2 weeks?

    It's short. I think the chances of this being the epic back and forth tight game are less realistic than this being fairly one sided in favor of the home team. I can discuss it more in detail later but I have a feeling this number/movement will be similar to a National Title Game. Fav takes money early, Dog takes money late. Hard to imagine it closing less than 4 unless Bama has significant injuries in practice and/or suspensions. HFA alone is worth more than 4 in this game and Bama is the superior team.

    Quick look at the numbers:

    Offense: Bama - LSU

    PPG 39.4 - 39.2
    Total Offense 457 - 372
    Rushing Off. 229 - 189
    Passing Off. 228 - 183
    First downs 21.9 - 20.8
    3rd down conv 50.9% - 46.2%
    Time of Poss. 32:43 - 33:52
    Penalty ypg 29.5 - 53.5

    Defense: Bama - LSU

    Scoring Def. 6.9 - 11.5
    Total Defense 180.5 - 251.4
    Rushing Def. 44.9 - 76.6
    Rush def. ypc 1.7 - 2.5
    Pass Defense 135.6 - 174.8
    Pass eff. def. 83.7 - 96.5
    Interceptions 9 - 11
    Sacks 17 - 19
    Opp.1st down 9.9 - 14.5
    Opp. 3rd conv. 26.4% - 32.5%
    Turnover marg- +6 - +15
  • thecaptain12thecaptain12 Senior Member
    edited October 2011
    hang in there man. after week 3 I was down 14 units and was hitting 30%. Last three weeks have been huge even with a tough saturday night and a poor sunday. Ups and downs just roll with.
  • utixutix Banned
    edited October 2011
    "Diversification is a protection against ignorance. It makes very little sense for those that know what they are doing" - Warren Buffet
  • SunBelterSunBelter Senior Member
    edited October 2011
    Nice line value getting Monroe early. I'm sitting back now hoping it gets to 7, so I can jump on WKU. They had a 2000 pound weight lifted off their shoulder Saturday, and Taggert has them believing. Good luck buddy.
  • hornhorn Super Moderator
    edited October 2011
    157 Tulane/ECU OVER 58.5
    168 SJSU/LA Tech OVER 50
    173 Hawaii/Idaho OVER 56
    177 Oregon State/Utah OVER 46
    193 So Miss/UTEP OVER 55
    197 Nevada/New Mexico State OVER 57.5
  • worm33worm33 Senior Member
    edited October 2011
    How high would you play 177 193 and 197?
  • hornhorn Super Moderator
    edited October 2011
    Good Discussion and thanks for the well wishes.

    Hope it lands on 6 Sunny! I just don't think WKU can pass well enough to keep them in it and this line would have been over a TD at open if the results for both teams would have gone "as expected" last week. Thompson having the day he did is bothersome but I like 119 other starting QB's more than I like the Toppers' when it comes to throwing the tater.
  • hornhorn Super Moderator
    edited October 2011
    47.5
    57.5
    59.5

    Those would probably be parameters, worm.
  • bburritosbburritos Member
    edited October 2011
    Didn't do much work this week, but I agree on almost all of your totals. GL this week Horn, and Roll Tide next week.
  • homerplayerhomerplayer Senior Member
    edited October 2011
    Been there before Horn. Had a tough stretch and came on here wondering if it was time to pack it in. A damn good handicapper and somewhat wise youngster talked me through it.

    Of course that was you.

    It is the nature of the game. Win some short term, lose some short term and some times the losses come in bunches. It is the long term that matters. Trust in what you has been working for you and keep grinding away.

    2 years ago your words helped focus my efforts. I know it is rough getting crushed 1 week, and boy did you get crushed. But it is over now. and it was only 1 day out of how many winning weeks?

    Chin up there little camper.

    Now get out there and win 1 (i would prefer a lot more than 1) this week for Huey.
  • thecaptain12thecaptain12 Senior Member
    edited October 2011
    I am approaching 300 plays. Over 100 last year. I guess I am better than RAS..Just joking of course

    TOMMYL EDIT (records deleted) - Please refer to Rule #7 (posted below), and don't post records of plays that weren't posted at BettingTalk. Thanks for your understanding.

    7. Unless you are a paid site sponsor, do not refer to any past picks or post any records of picks that were not originally posted on the BettingTalk forum before
    the outcome was determined. This includes any picks given out in the chat room.
  • kmherring3kmherring3 Senior Member
    edited October 2011
    Keep at it Horn!
  • hornhorn Super Moderator
    edited October 2011
    101 Troy/FIU OVER 55
  • StackAttackStackAttack Senior Member
    edited October 2011
    FIU just killing themselves + point opp's so far. Like the pace though.
  • hornhorn Super Moderator
    edited October 2011
    Should be plenty of snaps, Troy throws it 48 times per game and FIU secondary is their weak point so will have the opportunities for some big plays. FIU can't stay out of their own way though, some real poor QB play thus far from both clubs.
  • StackAttackStackAttack Senior Member
    edited October 2011
    Fix..
  • hornhorn Super Moderator
    edited October 2011
    haha, have a pal who claims ULL/Troy was fixed
  • StackAttackStackAttack Senior Member
    edited October 2011
    horn wrote: »
    haha, have a pal who claims ULL/Troy was fixed

    didnt see the game, or hear anything...what was his take?

    the penalties in this game are just brutal....
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