Betting Talk

NCAAF Week 7 Plays

hornhorn Super Moderator
edited October 2011 in Sports Betting
Overall: 54-44 (+5.60 units)
Sides: 23-16 (+5.35 units)
Totals: 30-25 (+2.50 units)
Team Totals: 0-1 (-1.15 units)
1H: 1-0 (+1 unit)
2H: 0-1 (-1.10 units)
ML: 0-1 (-1 unit)
Props:



104 Cal +3.5 -115
135 Miami Ohio -5.5
137 Western Michigan -1.5
162 Tulane -1

1104 USC/Cal UNDER 29.5 1H
Michigan State -2.5 -115 2h

105 Hawaii/SJSU OVER 55.5
121 VT/Wake OVER 49
131 Iowa State/Missouri OVER 55
143 Arizona State/Oregon OVER 66
146 UGA/Vanderbilt UNDER 42
161 UTEP/Tulane OVER 57
167 New Mexico/Nevada OVER 62


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Comments

  • StackAttackStackAttack Senior Member
    edited October 2011
    With you on the Broncos. G luck this wk
  • hornhorn Super Moderator
    edited October 2011
    With you on the Broncos. G luck this wk

    Glad to hear that. Any thoughts on Temple/Buffalo?
  • StackAttackStackAttack Senior Member
    edited October 2011
    Buff is one of the few MAC teams I havent seen a ton of this yr. However, I think the number is pretty dead on. Small lean Temple.

    FWIW...W. Michigan is my biggest play of the yr thus far. crossing fingers that that isnt the kiss-o-death.
  • bennieboybennieboy Junior Member
    edited October 2011
    Ive followed this forum for a long time and have learned to respect many posters here, specificly you Horn and StackAttack. I was curious what your thoughts are on Fla St vs Duke are. I really like Fla St at -14. Given their recent struggles however, do you think the line will make much movement later in the week?
  • hornhorn Super Moderator
    edited October 2011
    Thanks for the kind words.

    First off, let me preface this by saying that predicting line movement has been extremely challenging for me this season.

    That being said, if I had to guess, it will close lower than 14. It's currently 13.5 right now. Personally, I would not be in a rush to lay this number with the Noles. They obviously have the superior team athletically but they just aren't playing very good ball right now. They were very sloppy last week turning it over a bunch, making untimely penalties, and they struggled mightily at times with the Wake offense. Both teams should have plenty of success through the air. I think the line is probably about right, I made it slightly lower but really don't have enough interest to get involved.
  • bennieboybennieboy Junior Member
    edited October 2011
    Thanks horn! Im a big fan of LSU this week at -17 1/2, and I really like the W Michigan game too! Glad we are on the same page there.
  • BookbrakerBookbraker Senior Member
    edited October 2011
    Horn,

    Can a team from the big ten give another 40? I don't mean linebacker U lol.
  • hornhorn Super Moderator
    edited October 2011
    Bookbraker wrote: »
    Horn,

    Can a team from the big ten give another 40? I don't mean linebacker U lol.

    I made it 34. In a more reasonably lined game, obviously a 6 point variance in my line vs. posted line would be a bet right away. Wisky is a real darling right now with bettors and after what they did to Indy last season, 83-20 (lol), had to figure the number was gonna be a bit inflated. I'm not in a mad rush to get involved, but if this thing keeps getting bet up and I can get 6 TD's, I'll prob hop on the Hoosier wagon and hold my nose.
  • BookbrakerBookbraker Senior Member
    edited October 2011
    I made it less than 35 myself. Does seem inflated, noon start. Wisky bash them back to back years? I like the 40 lol. GL!
  • rodrinorodrino Senior Member
    edited October 2011
    Since Wake won last week when I asked you about them, I'd like to get your thoughts on this weeks game.
  • hornhorn Super Moderator
    edited October 2011
    Price is the real deal and Wake may just be too. I still think the Wake defense is a liability, but offensively I really like them. I still am not sure what to make of Logan Thomas. He has looked pedestrian at best at times this season and then he puts together a 23-25 day where he throws for 300+ and 3 TD's against Miami. I still think the value in this game likely still is with VT but I won't get involved. I think the difference is the VT defense and we will get to see just how far along Price is against a talented secondary. One thing that i think is advantageous for the Deacs is they catch VT in a pretty good spot coming off of two emotional games. Price will have to be good to keep them in it and I think an output similar to last week's game from the run game will go a long way into deciding this one. Wake has to find ways to trade scores here and likely come up big in the TO department as they did last week. I had Wake as one of the worst BCS teams in my power ratings coming into the season and they have definitely improved vastly from last year.
  • stucrossstucross Senior Member
    edited October 2011
    Hey Horn I am a big houston nut fan right know. what if the rebels win and hog beat rebels and hogs beat lsu would we be in for the national title.
  • hornhorn Super Moderator
    edited October 2011
    stucross wrote: »
    Hey Horn I am a big houston nut fan right know. what if the rebels win and hog beat rebels and hogs beat lsu would we be in for the national title.

    hey stu id be own the hogs like white own rice in the national title game against houston cougars
  • stucrossstucross Senior Member
    edited October 2011
    talk to me later after happens kid.
  • okoilmanokoilman Senior Member
    edited October 2011
    Horn...

    Oklahoma State -7 1/2 against Texas Oklahoma -35 against Texas. One has to love both Oklahoma teams don't you think. Last week OSU destroyed Kansas, they could have scored close to a 100 points pulling the starters with 4 minutes left in the first half ahead 55-7. OU destroyed Texas thru great defense, turnovers, and throwing the ball. I think both OSU and OU will try to match their in-state rivals results from last Saturday. If I had to pick one, I go with the Cowboys. OSU should shred Texas' secondary And the Cowboys should be able to control the young 'Horns.
  • lumpy19lumpy19 Senior Member
    edited October 2011
    horn wrote: »
    135 Miami Ohio -5.5

    OK so the market crapped all over this....do we buy more at -3 -115?
  • hornhorn Super Moderator
    edited October 2011
    lumpy19 wrote: »
    OK so the market crapped all over this....do we buy more at -3 -115?

    Probably. I feel pretty strongly about it and it's a little bit early for MAC fix money to come in, IMO. I will post something later that a friend of mine wrote in jest when I asked him to make a case for Kent State in this game.
  • hornhorn Super Moderator
    edited October 2011
    okoilman wrote: »
    Horn...

    Oklahoma State -7 1/2 against Texas Oklahoma -35 against Texas. One has to love both Oklahoma teams don't you think. Last week OSU destroyed Kansas, they could have scored close to a 100 points pulling the starters with 4 minutes left in the first half ahead 55-7. OU destroyed Texas thru great defense, turnovers, and throwing the ball. I think both OSU and OU will try to match their in-state rivals results from last Saturday. If I had to pick one, I go with the Cowboys. OSU should shred Texas' secondary And the Cowboys should be able to control the young 'Horns.

    Makes sense to me, oilman. I haven't really visited either game yet but I think those would be the only ways that I could play them. Probably depends on how long Okie plays their starters.
  • hornhorn Super Moderator
    edited October 2011
    lumpy19 wrote: »
    OK so the market crapped all over this....do we buy more at -3 -115?

    I gotta kick outta this. This is when I asked a friend to make a case for Kent State:

    Kent State is a member of the Mid-American Conference home of famous players such as Scooter McDougle. With the highest ranked Offense in college football averaging a powerful 2.6 yards per play and 171 yards per game the Redhawks will have their hands full with their lowly 58th ranked Defense. To make matters worse, the strength of the Miami Ohio defense is their rush defense but that won't matter because the Flashes are exceptional passing the football. They have thrown 3 Td while only throwing a measly 8 interceptions and this is while employing a high-risk high reward scheme that averages 3.1 yards per pass attempt.

    When the Redhawks have the ball they will be forced to throw it because the flashes have an excellent rush defense. Averaging only 7 yards per attempt through the air and 278 yards per game the unused pass offense for miami ohio will have to do something as they are used to leaning on that vaunted run production.
  • hornhorn Super Moderator
    edited October 2011
    162 Tulane -1
  • hornhorn Super Moderator
    edited October 2011
    1104 USC/Cal UNDER 29.5 1H

    105 Hawaii/SJSU OVER 55.5
    121 VT/Wake OVER 49
    131 Iowa State/Missouri OVER 55
    161 UTEP/Tulane OVER 57
    167 New Mexico/Nevada OVER 62


    Played few more, much to my bookie's delight, will wait to see if the numbers come back a bit. Was too careless last week with discrepancy in what I bet vs. what I posted and need to tighten it up some, I think.
  • CoopsCoops Senior Member
    edited October 2011
    Lets try & change it up this week: Horn, if I was down to my last 2 or 3 hundred, what games should I put my money on?
  • lumpy19lumpy19 Senior Member
    edited October 2011
    Coops wrote: »
    Lets try & change it up this week: Horn, if I was down to my last 2 or 3 hundred, what games should I put my money on?

    All that baseball money.....you should be betting all of these!
  • hornhorn Super Moderator
    edited October 2011
    Coops wrote: »
    Lets try & change it up this week: Horn, if I was down to my last 2 or 3 hundred, what games should I put my money on?

    I'm going to change my approach as well, maybe we will be onto something this week: Tulane and OVER
  • CoopsCoops Senior Member
    edited October 2011
    lol, i changed it up too, parlayed them, and then teased them for added security. GL to us.
  • bburritosbburritos Member
    edited October 2011
    Can I get some thoughts on the Mizzou over? GL this week Horn.
  • hornhorn Super Moderator
    edited October 2011
    bburritos wrote: »
    Can I get some thoughts on the Mizzou over? GL this week Horn.

    -Iowa State extremely porous defensively, especially in run defense. 202 ypg @ 4.2 ypc
    -Missouri tough to run on and Iowa State has shown they will throw it around, especially when trailing (51 attempts vs Texas)
    -Franklin similar to Griifin in sense that he is dual-threat and Iowa State has only been tested once by a guy like that, Griffin had 319 yards of total offense
    -Jantz a dual-threat and that isn't something Mizzou often sees (Klein doesn't count because he can't pass)
    -Both teams running above average plays per game offensively
    -Mizzou defense on field for almost 39 minutes last week
    -Ok St on deck for Mizzou so good reason to make sure offense is polished as they have to know they gotta trade scores to win
    -Iowa State beneficiaries of playing weak offensive teams that have been undergoing QB trasnitions, scheme transitions, etc and Mizzou has a game where they get off a little bit here and blow off some steam
  • tampa808tampa808 Junior Member
    edited October 2011
    Horn, thanks always for the picks. But wondering why you're so high on tulane and over. Not questioning your pick, but trying to figure out what you see. I haven't watched any of these teams, but thinking about playing it based on your heavy lean on both. Thanks
  • homerplayerhomerplayer Senior Member
    edited October 2011
    Damn I love a good Scooter McDougle reference

    Good thing fixed games only happen in college ball (wink, wink)

    GL Horndogle
  • BuckyBadgerBuckyBadger Senior Member
    edited October 2011
    horn wrote: »
    I made it 34. In a more reasonably lined game, obviously a 6 point variance in my line vs. posted line would be a bet right away. Wisky is a real darling right now with bettors and after what they did to Indy last season, 83-20 (lol), had to figure the number was gonna be a bit inflated. I'm not in a mad rush to get involved, but if this thing keeps getting bet up and I can get 6 TD's, I'll prob hop on the Hoosier wagon and hold my nose.

    5 reasons I will be on Indiana this week:

    1) Indiana defense is actually improved (albeit slighly)
    2) In last year's 83-20 rout, Wis scored 24, fourth qtr points and caught a lot of flack from the national media for running up the score (even though they weren't)
    3) After being at a Badger booster event Wed night and listening to Bielema discuss the game, I don't think Wis will be out to impress the BCS voters
    4) Bielema genuinely seems to like and respect the new Ind coach, Wilson
    5) Ind +41 with a local
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