NCAAF Week 6 Plays
horn
Super Moderator
Overall: 46-31 (+11.85 units)
Sides: 20-12 (+6.80 units)
Totals: 25-18 (+5.20 units)
Team Totals: 0-1 (-1.15 units)
1H: 1-0 (+1 unit)
2H:
Props:
332 Miami Ohio PICK
336 Ball State +10
348 Arkansas -9.5
349 Maryland +14.5
354 Tennessee +3 -115
357 Air Force +15
387 Wyoming +10.5
301 Cal/Oregon OVER 65
310 Illinois/Indiana UNDER 53.5
314 BC/Clemson UNDER 53
331 Army/Miami Ohio OVER 49.5
339 SJSU/BYU OVER 49
342 Eastern Mich/Toledo UNDER 52
353 UGA/Tenn OVER 55.5
379 FSU/Wake OVER 51.5
365 La Tech/Idaho OVER 55
367 Arizona/Oregon State OVER 58.5
369 Kansas/Okie St OVER 73
372 Michigan/Northwestern UNDER 59.5
Sides: 20-12 (+6.80 units)
Totals: 25-18 (+5.20 units)
Team Totals: 0-1 (-1.15 units)
1H: 1-0 (+1 unit)
2H:
Props:
332 Miami Ohio PICK
336 Ball State +10
348 Arkansas -9.5
349 Maryland +14.5
354 Tennessee +3 -115
357 Air Force +15
387 Wyoming +10.5
301 Cal/Oregon OVER 65
310 Illinois/Indiana UNDER 53.5
314 BC/Clemson UNDER 53
331 Army/Miami Ohio OVER 49.5
339 SJSU/BYU OVER 49
342 Eastern Mich/Toledo UNDER 52
353 UGA/Tenn OVER 55.5
379 FSU/Wake OVER 51.5
365 La Tech/Idaho OVER 55
367 Arizona/Oregon State OVER 58.5
369 Kansas/Okie St OVER 73
372 Michigan/Northwestern UNDER 59.5
Comments
Ha, agreed. And really only 2 plays for some of us.
Not really. Slight Tulane lean by my numbers but didn't dig real deep.
I lean the other way on Navy, few teams run well on USM although Navy may be a bit different to defend. I was extremly unimpressed with Navy last week. AFA is far, far superior team to them, IMO. May end up butting heads in that game although we could both come out winners if the line keeps creepin'.
I lean Tennessee as well. Had this circled as a spot they win in pre-season and capped it that way when I took Tenny to win East at 7/1 or 8/1 or whatever it was. Should be interesting to see how UGA does against a team with an offense and vice versa for Tenny. Think both defenses will be challenged. UGA lost their leading sack man to a DUI on Saturday night to boot.
thoughts
Red River Shootout?
I'm starting to drink the Texas Kool-Aid a little bit. Not necessarily in this game, but in general, they have made huge improvements since they went away from Gilbert at QB. UCLA is a much better team than most people realize, IMO, and that game in their house was extremely impressive. I didn't get a chance to see any of Texas last week but from what I have gathered they were a bit lucky to score as many as they did and win by that margin. I still think your Okie defense is a bit susceptible to giving up points but it's a lot to ask for a young Texas offense that is still in a bit of a transition. Texas defense likely comparable to FSU, definitely better but similar in athleticism at least. Lot of offensive weapons for your boys, as you know. I think the Okies win the game, but I wouldn't be in a hurry to lay the points here. QB play probably the difference here as you have one of the country's best and extremely seasoned vs. a green group. I think the line is about right, perhaps slight under lean.
EJ has been taking the snaps all week so that is a positive for the Noles. I still don't like Wake's defense and that is masked to a certain degree by playing BC and Gardener Webb. I had Wake as one of the worst BCS teams in my numbers to start the season and while I admit they probably aren't quite as bad as I once thought, they probably aren't as good as many believe they are. We'll find out more in this game for sure. Offense is gonna have to carry them to stay within the number. Win or lose, you can take solace in the fact that your team (I'm guessing from avatar) has won an ACC title more recently than the Noles - and it will stay that way at least until 2012!
Your review is Priceless
Mama sends love; back at the Bingo Parlor, rooting for Payton tonight; can't tell her that he's out
Still waiting on her rent check; you are behind 8 months bro!!!
Best of luck this wk
Temple layin DD's on road in conf against teams not named EMU or Akron, Child Please!
P.S. Follow your plays every week. Thanks for winning me a lot of money this year!
I agreed with you last week 100% on the Rockets. I am not sure about this week, this is a game IMO to stay away from. But gun to my head I would have to lean with you...ever so slightly.
Very interested to see how the Owls respond off what happened Sat. Coach Steve had the guys ready after the PSU game and they obliterated the Terps. Temple kills me with their awful QB play in tight games. If Ball can duplicate what Toledo did to the Owl O...I could see the Owls having to grind this one out. However, Im not in love with Ball on the defensive side - not sure they have the personnel to stack the box and actually dominate a massive Temple Oline the way the Rockets did. Very interesting game, going to learn a lot about the Owls and what they can do in the MAC for the remainder of this season.
I don't expect them to do a whole lot of stopping. Conversely, GT defense is still a liability that really hasn't been challenged so far. They have given up 21 to everyone, including Western Carolina, and they haven't faced any teams that pose much of an offensive threat. Edsall is a great dog and has a knack for playing these types of games, "closer than the experts think". Maryland certainly hasn't played well the past couple of games but I see potential and i think offensively they should have a lot of success against GT. Temple definitely ran it down Maryland's throat. Why did it happen? I don't know. I don't think they would do it again, though. When UNC has the best offense that you have faced and you're five games into the year and still giving up 26 ppg, it's a pretty good indicator of a unit that isn't very good. GT has won/covered in spite of the defense thus far. I don't have the numbers in front of me but GT was averaging about 12 possesions per game earlier in the year, which is well below the national average, and covering 3 scores against a potent offense with a mediocre defense is a tall order. I hope GT wins as I have them Over 6 wins and 48/1 to win ACC, but i have a weird feeling this one comes down to the wire.
I think the total came a much better number than the side.
Nate
I'm not the best person at evaluating prices like that. I will say that I think they have a pretty good shot to run the table. Possible slip up games on the road and we really don't know how they are gonna handle those types of tests this season. I'd say Illinois is the most likely to knock them off if it were to happen. Probably not a bad bet but you have to not only be pulling for them to run the table, but for the winner of LSU/Bama to lose to the team from the East in the SECCG and probably for Oklahoma to lose as well, and not to Oklahoma State. It never hurts to play a game that Brent and Herbie call like they did last week, they can drool over a team, make a few comments and they jump up the polls the following week. I played VT at 43/1 and ND at 35/1 to or something this summer but both are obviously dead now. Thought it would be too hard for VT to lose a game this year with their schedule but I was wrong.. I still think it will be Bama/Oklahoma but still lot of games to be played. I don't mind answering questions, as long as it's not about total before thursday
I bet the game at +17.5 at open and it is the biggest bet I've had on a side this season. ND faced two academies last season. Navy shoved it down their throat and beat them SU by 18. They faced Army later in season and shut them down. I think they are a lot more likely to have success against Navy later this season than they are in this game. While ND's rush defense may be improved, there is very little I have seen from this team that leads me to believe they have the discipline to shut down AFA at all. I will be in the minority with this comment but I don't think AFA is a whole lot different as a team in terms of strengths & weaknesses than Georgia Tech. What would GT be lined at Notre Dame in this spot? Now I'm not saying ther two are identical in power rankings but I have them a whole lot closer than probably just about anybody else that I know. ND certainly didn't do a great job with Denard Robinson earlier and the year and Jefferson is certainly a multi-faceted talent that is a much better passer than most realize. The weakness of the defense for AFA is defending the run and ND has been much better in that department the past couple games as they have gotten some explosive plays. I don't think Kelly has the nerve to stickl with the run against AFA and wear them out. The score of the game last week against Navy was extremely deceptive. Navy ran 105 offensive plays compared to AFA's 51 . AFA gave up 18 points in the 4Q when the game was pretty well decided when Calhoun decided to go into prevent for the whole quarter, Navy recovered an onside kick, converted some miraculous 3/4th down plays, etc etc. This team has tremendous spirit. I can't say the same about ND and there is no way that they've had the chance to practice any option this year, and to be honest, while seeing Navy and Army last season will help some, neither of those compare to AFA because they have legitimate passing options and can operate at a tempo that makes things exceddingly more difficult when defensing this type of offense. I had this game circled as one that I felt AFA would have a good shot to win before the season and I feel the same way now. Personally, I think AFA wins the game. If ND jumps out front by a couple of scores early, it probably won't happen, but if AFA can mirrior a start similar to what Navy did at South Carolina a few weeks ago, it could be that type of game.