NCAAF Week 4 Plays
horn
Super Moderator
Overall: 28-17 (+9.25 units)
Sides: 11-8 (+2.20 units)
Totals: 16-8 (+7.20 units)
Team Totals: 0-1 (-1.15 units)
1H: 1-0 (+1 unit)
2H:
Props:
340 Washington -3
361 Nevada +20.5
374 Wyoming +24
387 ULM +17
393 ULL +17
307 Tulane/Duke OVER 56
328 Central Michigan/Michigan State UNDER 49.5
330 Georgia/Ole Miss UNDER 54.5
339 Cal/Washington OVER 58.5
342 LSU/WVU UNDER 49.5
345 UNC/GT OVER 58
364 Vanderbilt/USC UNDER 50
369 Southern Miss/Virginia OVER 52
373 Nebraska/Wyoming OVER 59
383 Southern Cal/Arizona State OVER 53.5
394 ULL/FIU UNDER 51
Sides: 11-8 (+2.20 units)
Totals: 16-8 (+7.20 units)
Team Totals: 0-1 (-1.15 units)
1H: 1-0 (+1 unit)
2H:
Props:
340 Washington -3
361 Nevada +20.5
374 Wyoming +24
387 ULM +17
393 ULL +17
307 Tulane/Duke OVER 56
328 Central Michigan/Michigan State UNDER 49.5
330 Georgia/Ole Miss UNDER 54.5
339 Cal/Washington OVER 58.5
342 LSU/WVU UNDER 49.5
345 UNC/GT OVER 58
364 Vanderbilt/USC UNDER 50
369 Southern Miss/Virginia OVER 52
373 Nebraska/Wyoming OVER 59
383 Southern Cal/Arizona State OVER 53.5
394 ULL/FIU UNDER 51
Comments
I'm not nearly as high as others appear to be, but I like Rutgers this week. Thoughts on the four-point spread?
HuegoBeal will be glad to start a thread on this contest
I don't really have an opinion. I can tell you that there is likely no dollar amount in the world that could entice me to watch that game.
FSU QB was hurt and will probably miss
Horn good luck!!
thanks
I love the ULM pick. I watched that Iowa/Pitt game and even though they came back and won, Iowa is pathetic. ULM is battle tested now against FSU, which by the way, I thought they looked pretty solid defensively, and now TCU last week. Both of these schools are infinitely better than Iowa. With that Iowa offense, I could see this game coming down to the end with ULM having an outside chance to win outright. Probably not a win (of course sac. st. wasnt supposed to beat Oregon st.) but 17 way to much IMHO!
good luck my friend
I made the line LSU -5.5. I have a pretty good understanding of who LSU is this season. They are the most athletic defense in the country and they are much better running the football. They were far from world beaters last game on offense, or really any game this season thus far, but I couldn't figure out Miss St's strategy on defense. They loaded the box, as they should, but they let Lee have a game of pitch and catch with his WR as they played 8-10 yards cushion on just about every play. It was so simple for LSU to move the football, wear down a Miss St defense that lacks depth, and ultimately impose their will in the 4th quarter. It was pretty much exactly what I have seen each week with Bama under Saban. Morgantown is a tough place to play and it will be the second most raucous road environment they play in this season. WVU likes to use their speed and their schemes to get to the edges and exploit athletic mismatches, something I think they have a tough time doing in this game. I expect it to be similar to last week at Miss St where it's a close game that could go anyway for 3 quarters, but ultimately LSU's strength, speed, and depth should get them a win.
Thanks X. I think the small school being battle tested can be viewed one of two ways.. 1) Iowa is a step down in class from FSU and TCU and they shouldn't be intimidated playing in what is historically a tough environment. 2) ULM being battle tested will impact them negatively as they lack the size, speed, depth that many of the bigger programs have and they could run out of gas here. One of the things that i think sort of makes #1 more likely is the fact that Iowa has to be running on fumes. Coming off of a triple OT loss to their rival, followed up by the largest 4th quarter comeback in their programs history, and now they play a team they didn't know played football until they saw this year's schedule. I'm hoping that Iowa won't come out and run the hurry up offense and throw it around the yard as they did in their comeback win last week. If they come out and play vanilla on both sides of the ball, which is what their track record says they will do, then i think this game has the potential to play out a lot like the game did in 2009 when Arkansas State went up to Iowa City and almost got the outright win. Some interesting variables in this game to be certain that will likely ultimately be the difference between a winning bet and a losing bet. Here's to vanilla...
G luck this week...nice week last week.
Oddly enough, I made it -7.5. Michigan a tad bit higher than I had them this summer and SDSU a good bit lower. SDSU losing a pair of WR to the NFL (miscalculated impact), a pretty darn good head coach, and my worst fear - a noon start (start times not announced then) brought me to a much different line than I had when I originally made that bet. I don't think it's a bad ticket that I'm holding by any means, I'm just not near as excited as I was about it a few months ago. You win some and you lose some when you bet GOY lines, Tennessee +13 last week was a win, Tennessee +9.5 at home against South Carolina should be a good bet and USC -7 against UCLA should be a good bet. I think those were most if not all of what I bet without digging stuff up and looking. The next in line in terms of GOY's that I almost pulled the trigger on was Clemson +6 vs. FSU and UCF +10 at BYU. Obviously, those would have been really good bets. Anyway, I'll prob wise up and bet a bunch of these GOY lines sometime soon and pick up a bunch of additional cash. I need to just budget them in to my BR more heavily than I have in the past. As a whole, the GOY lines were much better this year than in year's past.
I always view your picks and apprciate your insight. Your Washington pick caught my eye as California normally struggles on the road. But the line has dropped from 3 to 1 1/2? Whats your thoughts.
Thanks
1. What are your thoughts on the LSU @ West by God Total? My local has 49.5 posted currently. I am thinking that LSU will be able to shut down the Eers offense and Clock Munch will a ball control running attack, taking a few play action deep shots later in the game.
2. What do you think about the FSU @ Clemson contest? Clemson is now the Fave, now that everyone is aware of the EJ Manual injury. I know the Tigers have had a tough time stopping the run this season but Tricket will have to do more than just hand off all day. I think the Tigers can get a good enough pass rush on the young signal caller to force him into some bad throws that could result in INTs. Also, I am impressed by the Clemson recieving core this season. True Frosh WR Sammy Watkins has a chance to be a Star very soon.
330 Georgia/Ole Miss UNDER 54.5
339 Cal/Washington OVER 58.5
342 LSU/WVU UNDER 49.5
345 UNC/GT OVER 58
364 Vanderbilt/USC UNDER 50
369 Southern Miss/Virginia OVER 52
373 Nebraksa/Wyoming OVER 59
394 ULL/FIU UNDER 51
1. I played the under as well, GL to us.
2. I will stay sidelined on the FSU/Clemson game. Too much uncertainty surrounding two uncertain teams for me to jump in the ring. Watkins is ridiculous, he is the only guy I've seen this season that could run with me in the 100 meter
Glad to help MG. I didn't win those bets, you did. Remmeber that, and make sure to rememeber the inverse when I go 0-36 one week soon
Made the line Cinci -7, didn't even make a total. It's just a really tough game for me tonight. I haven't seen much of either team and now weather could be a factor so who knows...
Tend to agree. The under in Tuscaloosa would probably be the next thing that played. I think Bama passing game will have a pretty good level of success in the passing game and that would be my biggest concern with the under, and if bama gets up early and arky quits running it extends the game. It's close to being a play for me but not in a huge hurry.
it gets asked every week... if u had to pick 1 or 2 of your favorite plays, what would they be?
Pressure is on after the 6-0 start
Cal OVER
South Carolina UNDER
Nevada was def fav side, but down 5 points or so from where I posted
What the hell happened with this total?
09/23/11 07:53:43am
49½
09/23/11 07:53:22am
50
09/23/11 07:52:06am
49½
09/21/11 06:09:52pm
50½
09/21/11 06:09:52pm
50
09/21/11 01:39:58pm
51½
09/21/11 01:39:17pm
09/19/11 06:44:39pm
56
09/19/11 05:42:44pm
09/19/11 05:38:36pm
50
09/19/11 05:36:27pm
49
09/19/11 05:36:26pm
49½
09/19/11 05:36:10pm
50
09/19/11 05:35:54pm
50½
09/19/11 05:35:33pm
51½
Pinny opened at 55.5 and it slowly went down, the 56 at CRIS seems completely random but looks like it pushed pinny to open at 55.5....very confusing
I saw it open on CRIS at 50.5, perhaps 51.5 if I was submitting another bet when it came in went in a 5-15 second window. I don't rememebr that total bouncing me as I submitted. Few of em changed as usual while I was confirming, had UNC/GT over at 53.5 but missed it by milliseconds and settled for 54.5.
I have noticed on sbr all week it has showed all sorts of unuasual numbers for that Vandy game, I know it went OTB for awhile as well.