Plays based on Fezzik interview earlier in the week....
namathfan
Senior Member
Earlier this week Fezzik said that by this time all the lines have been pounded into shape...duh.
His suggestion was to wait until 20 minutes before gametime and fade any decent size moves.
That being said I played (only for beer money)...
TB under 43.5
KC -4
Clev under 37
Jax + 1.5
Wash un 40
glta
His suggestion was to wait until 20 minutes before gametime and fade any decent size moves.
That being said I played (only for beer money)...
TB under 43.5
KC -4
Clev under 37
Jax + 1.5
Wash un 40
glta
Comments
TB o/u 41
KC -6
Clev o/u 35
Jax -2.5
Wash o/u 37.5
the guys full of shit, he will feed you a different story every week.....don't get caught up....you may find out he never played any of them
Of those listed plays the only thing he played today with his service was the TB un43.5. He played JAX -2.5 a few months ago but said he didn't like it anymore and came over the top with big teaser plays on Tennessee.
I thought his interview made sense. The Nfl lines had been out since the summer and were as solid as they were going to get having been bet into for almost 2 months.
Fading any late week move seemed worth it to me.
Thanks for the feedback, always appreciated.
Fezz' weighted record for Week 1 was 43-24 +16.2 units as reported by Computer Bob, who will be keeping track of his record over at LVA.
Much respect for Computer Bob's tracking methods, but is he seriously monitoring whether Fezzik's lines are WA at the time of his post? That is a lot of work for 67 week-one plays.
Fezzik's detractors point to impossible-to-get lines as the biggest flaw at his picks site. "+3 still available at The Stratosphere" hardly qualifies as WA for most bettors with any semblance of a clue.
NFL record: 43-24, 64.2%, (24-20-2 unweighted), +16.20u
CFB record: 12-11, 52.2%, (9-8-1 unweighted), -0.10u
NFLX record: 4-7-1 unweighted, -7.35u
46 plays total. Week 1 is a different beast. Fezz played a lot of stuff before the season started at WA numbers, then, once line moved, and he had more info on games, injuries etc as season approached, he came over the top on the other side of some of his plays. A normal week I would assume would be 15-20 plays, but who knows. This is everything, props, sides 1st halfs, halftimes, over/unders. They can add up quick.
is it true he got 13 plays tonight for mnf
I don't necessarily disagree that fading late week moves have value. I'm saying that out of those 5 picks, Fezzik only gave out 1 of them on his service, and I'm pretty sure even that was just a buy-back where he'd made a big bet on the over earlier.
He went 24-20-2 as reported by ComptrBob on EOG, but Fezzik did very well on his heavily weighted plays. One of his classic tout tricks is to quote his weighted record to make it sound more impressive than it is. He's done that for years on his radio shows. The host asks "How did you do on the NCAA tournament" and he says "22-8" and the host lets out a low whistle, whereas he actually went 9-6 but went 2-0 on 4 weight plays, 1-0 in 3 weight plays, and 1-1 on 2 weight plays. The honest way to report the record would be to simply quote the 9-6 and then the ROI, but of course 22-8 sounds more impressive, so that's what the tout does.
Many years ago, he stated he bet 0.4% per "weight" so a 2 weighted play isn't even a true full play and a 5 weight is really a "2 unit" play so that skews it even more. 24-20 is really 9.6-8 based on a full play = 1%. Still a solid day but doesn't look as "pretty".
One of Fezzik's last posts to SSB before Stanford sold the board to Edward was to mock SSB and StevieY for poor performance and to challenge them to a playground duel. Fezzik didn't actually compile a record (he resisted record keeping for years) but boasted of his 55% site. Someone went and calculated Fezzik's record and was promptly banned from Fezzik's board for his efforts, but Fezzik's actual record that year turned out to be 47% vs StevieY's 55% or so.