Betting Talk

Why all the love for Indy?

BIGtimerDCBIGtimerDC Senior Member
edited January 2011 in Sports Betting
I like the Jets today but see practically everyone on the board with Indy one way or another. Just see this Jets defense coming to play today and winning one.. very similar to their run last year in the playoffs. Pound the run and play defense. All this talk by Rex Ryan you know he is just itching to beat Peyton. Not to say Rex wouldn't be already trying to do all he could to win the game but a little extra motivation never hurts. Either way I think the Jets win this one on the ground and by playing defense. Colts not the same team this year.

Comments

  • newcombenewcombe Senior Member
    edited January 2011
    Colts not the same team this year.
    i agree with this but I also think that the jets aren't anything special this year either and manning is at home on his turf in the playoffs... last year the colts laid down for the jets to get them in the playoffs but then took care of them in the afc champ game. today i see this as an offensive game that will be won by the team that better takes advantage of their scoring opps (i.e. peyton and the colts IMO)...

    GL either way!
  • utixutix Banned
    edited January 2011
    Peyton Manning at home giving up less than a FG against a coach he is 5-1 all time against.

    The Jets defense just gave up 38 on the road to Chicago 2 weeks ago with their playoff lives on the line.

    Sanchez is throwing 54.8% completions this year and 17/13 TD/INT, not so great.

    Colts have won 4 in a row to get into the playoffs, while NYJ are 2-3 in L5 (2 of those loses on the road)


    I don't have a play in this game, but I believe that Jets players are just trying to find the spot where the Jets/Ryan will finally beat Peyton or playing the "Colts can't always win" card. Nothing really suggest that this will happen. You aren't going to get Peyton at home, giving up less than a TD very often and that's probably what a lot of squares are looking at
  • newcombenewcombe Senior Member
    edited January 2011
    utix wrote: »
    ... and that's probably what a lot of squares are looking at

    so you are saying the board of bettors on the colts are squares or am I misconstruing that statement?
  • utixutix Banned
    edited January 2011
    I'd say, without outside help from a quality handicapper, most of the board is very square. Often times though, the boards picks won't be on the square side but that typically comes from a decent capper posting the other side and either following or using that info to help determine their pick.

    I think the reverse line movement shows the sharps are on NYJ and squares are on Indy.
  • newcombenewcombe Senior Member
    edited January 2011
    good to know your thoughts on this matter... maybe one day this board will be full of sharps and we'll all be millionaires :)...
  • utixutix Banned
    edited January 2011
    The problem that I've found is that people that have the knowledge are few and far between, and are very guarded in their ways. Since we all wager within the same market, we effect each others profitability, and that seems to cause the truly good cappers to hold back info that would help others get good.

    Take Ed, StevieY, and JakeNHL. Very little info, just plays. If you follow and make money doing so, that's great, but you aren't going to learn much from their plays unless you can find their angles. Makes it hard for people wanting to learn to actually get better.

    Also, I don't think their are sharps boards out there. If there are, they are private.....
  • newcombenewcombe Senior Member
    edited January 2011
    all great points above utix... forces us day to day grinders to try and find edges on our own or just learn as much as you can from studying and really paying attention to the sport(s) as needed. tough job we have but as someone just starting to really try to figure things out (myself), I love the challenge.
  • utixutix Banned
    edited January 2011
    I agree about the challenge. I've learned quite a bit about gambling in the last 6 months, but I feel like we really have no idea how things are done in a world like Ed's.
  • newcombenewcombe Senior Member
    edited January 2011
    utix wrote: »
    I agree about the challenge. I've learned quite a bit about gambling in the last 6 months, but I feel like we really have no idea how things are done in a world like Ed's.

    i know... not sure if everyone has what it takes to be in his shoes no matter how hard they try or learn. oh well, do what we can to find edges and win money. nice chat utix!
  • kass101kass101 Senior Member
    edited January 2011
    No matter how sharp you are your edge in the NFL is going to be the smallest of any sport. It has the most information widely available to the books and the handicappers which is a bad thing as a bettor. It also is the most efficient market, your edge is so small, if you have one that unless you are betting huge money like Billy Walters it is very tough to make money in the NFL.

    That is why you see Ed cap CBB and CFB and many other successful cappers focus on the smaller sports. If you are a tout the money is in the NFL but if you want to actually make money you need to find a place where you can get more info that the books. This is something that Ed obviously does very well, and if it is him or who works for him he obviously has some extremely bright numbers guys which is huge in CBB especially totals.
  • blueblue Senior Member
    edited January 2011
    Colts in primetime and at home. I don't have the statistics, but I think that record is pretty ridiculous over the past 5 years. That, and like the poster above mentioned, they are 5-1 against Rex. Jets haven't really been able to get after the qb as of late, which is the strategy they seem to always employ when they take on Manning. If they were smart, they would rush 3 lineman and drop everyone else in coverage. If the Jets had a good qb, I would easily lean their way. I actually think the Colts will attack Revis with his bum hamstring. Not sure that is a great idea. Although the Jets still have a good d, I think it is much weaker than last year, as evidenced by all 8 road games hitting the over this year for them.
  • utixutix Banned
    edited January 2011
    kass101 wrote: »
    This is something that Ed obviously does very well, and if it is him or who works for him he obviously has some extremely bright numbers guys which is huge in CBB especially totals.

    It's going to be hard to beat a team that consist of Mriordan, Dmoney, and Ed. And if Ed keeps buying up all the quality cbb cappers it's only going to get worse, or better, depending on how you look at it. His additions in CFB have no doubt paid off at a high level as well
  • BIGtimerDCBIGtimerDC Senior Member
    edited January 2011
    blue wrote: »
    Colts in primetime and at home. I don't have the statistics, but I think that record is pretty ridiculous over the past 5 years.

    I know only one game but I sure remember a SNF game where the Chargers came into Indy and blew them out in the primetime. I remember because I bet Indy that game.

    Anyways, regarding this game I think the better team is getting points. Yes the Jets have been very inconsistent through the course of this year but they have played significantly more difficult schedule and end up with a better record. People will point out the losses the Jets had (like vs NE and Chi) but not enough attention paid to the big time win on the road in Pitt against a team far superior to the Colts. Jets played 5 playoff teams only beating Pitt but loss by one to Balt first game, loss 0-9 vs GB, and a close one vs Chi. They played down to a lot of opponents but this is the postseason and I expect the best Jets effort tonight. Don't see how the Colts are able to make enough plays on defense to keep themselves in this game. Sanchez should be able to throw the rock on a pretty weak Colts D and open up the run game.

    Jets 24 Colts 17. Book it.
  • newcombenewcombe Senior Member
    edited January 2011
    hard to say the jets are much better than anyone this year and if the average bears O can poor it on them than I see the colts at home doing much the same. GL either way my friend.
  • DogsoutDogsout Senior Member
    edited January 2011
    Hey UTIX if MOST of the board is square do you consider yourself a square or a sharp?
  • utixutix Banned
    edited January 2011
    Dogsout wrote: »
    Hey UTIX if MOST of the board is square do you consider yourself a square or a sharp?

    I don't cap my own games anymore.
  • BookbrakerBookbraker Senior Member
    edited January 2011
    utix wrote: »
    It's going to be hard to beat a team that consist of Mriordan, Dmoney, and Ed. And if Ed keeps buying up all the quality cbb cappers it's only going to get worse, or better, depending on how you look at it. His additions in CFB have no doubt paid off at a high level as well
    Who did he add in CFB? If you can't answer no problem.
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