Betting Talk

NFL Sunday Discussions

BIGtimerDCBIGtimerDC Senior Member
edited December 2010 in Sports Betting
Don't usually post but have had some limited success betting Sunday NFL this year. Just now catching up with some of the line movements and breaking down some games. Still pretty surprised to see the Chiefs getting so many points. I don't really get it.

Chiefs +9 1/2.. San Diego just got roughed up by Oakland bringing them back to reality after the late season run. This is a monster game for the Chiefs and wouldn't be shocked to see them win. I live in SD and I swear I haven't seen a better team when playing in the prime time. Stadium gets jumping but on a casual Sunday afternoon they seem to come out flat. No real merit but just a philosophy of mine after living in SD for three football seasons and following the team.

Eagles -3 1/2.. Will buy down to three. Don't see the Eagles losing here. Yes on the road and Dallas is playing pretty well with Garret at the helm. Trust me Eagles have not forgot about the three game sweep Dallas had over them last year. Eagles have too much firepower on offense. Should be a good game but just no way Dallas can hang for 60 minutes.

Detroit +6 1/2.. Will buy to +7. Seems like a bad spot for Green Bay. 3-3 on the road and barely escaped victory in Green Bay hosting Detroit. Detroit is not a great football team but they have actually performed very well ATS 8-4! Public heavy on Green Bay yet the line has moved down from 7 to 6.5.. Take the points in another close one.

Really would love to hear some breakdown on the Pats-Bears game... I still am not sold on Da Bears. Pats playing great but only a 1 point fave on the road? Seems a little fishy.

Comments

  • utixutix Banned
    edited December 2010
    I'm no expert but here's some thoughts:

    Pats line is very fishy, and in my book this is Bears or no play.

    Chiefs game does seem like a bit too many points and I'm tired as hell of giving my money away on the Chargers. I think I find a good spot to be against them and they crush someone on the road that's 3 times better than the team they lost to at home last week by 14 (you get my point). I hate Chargers games.

    Laying more than a FG on the road with any team in the NFL that's not substantially better than their opponent is suicide. Now you could argue that Philly is substantially better than Dallas, but that was 8 games ago, not today. Garrett is coaching for a multi million dollar contract and Philly isn't good on defense as they once were. Don't forget, this is still a divisional game, even is Dallas is out of the playoffs.

    Detroit is also a play on them or no play for me. Can't lay a TD on the road to a team that is as improved as they are. Green Bay has been unimpressive lately in my opinion, although they have the #1 scoring defense in the league.


    Also, I don't buy points. I look at it as insurance. People don't sell insurance because it's good for the customer, it makes them money in the long run. They aren't charging 10% for something worth 12%, or 15% for something worth 18%. It's a loser, at any number, and the fact that they offer it should tell you so.

    Playing Detroit at 6.5 when you could have gotten 7 is also a bad move. You should probably wait to try and get 7 or not play it at all.
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited December 2010
    utix wrote: »
    Also, I don't buy points. I look at it as insurance. People don't sell insurance because it's good for the customer, it makes them money in the long run. They aren't charging 10% for something worth 12%, or 15% for something worth 18%. It's a loser, at any number, and the fact that they offer it should tell you so.

    There are times when point-buying is +EV or at the very least neutral EV. Paying 10 cents on/off the NFL 7 and 20 cents on/off the NFL 3 are fine. It's not insurance where you're paying a premium in those cases, you're actually getting your money's worth.

    Books are sharp, but not infallible. There's a reason why most books changed the cost of buying on/off the 3 from 20 cents to 25 and the cost of buying on/off the 7 from 10 to 15 cents.
  • BIGtimerDCBIGtimerDC Senior Member
    edited December 2010
    I'm the victim of a poor local book which does not make lines available until game day or would have been all over Detroit +7. I think Philly is significantly better than Dallas. Yes divisional game and Garret coaching for a contract. Still doesn't solve the problems on defense. Eagles defense not great and losing Samuel again will hurt but Dez Bryant also not playing. Like I said should be a good game but don't think Dallas will hang in. Should be interesting.
  • utixutix Banned
    edited December 2010
    Goats wrote: »
    There are times when point-buying is +EV or at the very least neutral EV. Paying 10 cents on/off the NFL 7 and 20 cents on/off the NFL 3 are fine. It's not insurance where you're paying a premium in those cases, you're actually getting your money's worth.

    Books are sharp, but not infallible. There's a reason why most books changed the cost of buying on/off the 3 from 20 cents to 25 and the cost of buying on/off the 7 from 10 to 15 cents.


    I think StevieY posted the numbers on this earlier in the year and at the -20 (-3) and -10 (7) it was basically a break even and he said either do it every time or never do it. I guess at that point it is a matter of preference, but neither side is giving much the best of each other as you suggested.
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited December 2010
    utix wrote: »
    I think StevieY posted the numbers on this earlier in the year and at the -20 (-3) and -10 (7) it was basically a break even and he said either do it every time or never do it. I guess at that point it is a matter of preference, but neither side is giving much the best of each other as you suggested.

    Yeah, that's why I said "or at least neutral EV". I just wanted to point out that's it's not always a bad deal, that's all.
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