NCAAF Double Digit Dogs - Betting Spread and ML

dtrain11

Good week so far for DD dogs. 85 percent is looking like genius. LOL.

I had a question for when betting these big underdogs (10+ points).

Does it make sense to also put a small piece (call it .3 units) on the ML with your 1 unit on the spread? I did this for Rutgers last night and GT tonight.I feel like I have heard somewhere that you shouldn't be betting these big dogs unless you think they can win outright. Not sure where I heard that or if I'm just making it up.

Do you guys have any thoughts on this?

horn

I think it depends entirely on how you forecast the likelihood of an outright win by the dog. If you think that the dog wins outright 25% of the time (assuming it's a normal ML for a 10 pt dog, +301 or greater) or more and you are confident in your abilities, then yes, a ML play is not a bad bet.

dtrain11

Thanks horn. That was what my initial thoughts were. I should only be playing the ML if I think it has value in itself.

Thanks for all the great picks btw.

horn

dtrain11 wrote: »

Thanks horn. That was what my initial thoughts were. I should only be playing the ML if I think it has value in itself.

Thanks for all the great picks btw.

Glad to help.

Something that is difficult to grasp, at least it was for me and still can be at times, is that you've gotta make bets independent from one another based on their own merit. Much easier said than done, but something that I try to stay mindful of.

wcf124

It seems the lines are tighter and the favorites win more as the weeks go by.although last week there were a few double digit dogs that won,example uab which won outright... ty mr. east