RAS NCAA BB Records After Line Moves
dtrain11
Senior Member
This might have been touched on before, but has anyone tracked Ed's record against the closing line? I am going to be away from the computer for a good portion of this years releases, so I am debating if it is still profitable if I continually miss releases. I would assume the totals do a bit better.
It shouldn't take long to run this data, but I wanted to see if anyone else has done it before I spent time.
As always, thank you Ed and everyone at BT and RAS for all the great insight, info and plays.
Good luck.
It shouldn't take long to run this data, but I wanted to see if anyone else has done it before I spent time.
As always, thank you Ed and everyone at BT and RAS for all the great insight, info and plays.
Good luck.
Comments
OVERALL 244-208 53.98% +15.5 units
Sides 128-122 51.20% -5.9 units
Totals 116-86 57.43% +21.4 units
That is a difference in profit of about 45 units from the RAS release line to the closing line.
The data above is against a consensus closing line. Results would improve with line shopping and could improve or worsen depending on actual market timing. Beating line movement, market timing, and line shopping are discussed at length in the RAS User Guide on our website.
Keep in mind, it should be every sports bettors goal to BEAT the closing line. Making bets that are consistently equal or worse than the closing line will most likely lead you to poor long term results at -110, even when following RAS.
We are very upfront on our website about the difficulties and challenges involved in playing RAS picks at our release line, but it is NOT impossible. It can and is done by many on a fairly consistent basis. It simply requires adequate outs, some experimentation, skill, and being well prepared to act quickly.
Edward,
Do you know if the lines in LV are jumped as quickly as the offshores on your releases? I am here full time now and locals can get a phone account at the corporation sportsbook of choice with residence. Otherwise it is very difficult to get the release lines.
Thats good to know. I'm going to be down in Vegas for a few days near xmas and wondered how much trouble I would have.
This has been discussed before. If people talked about specific books and methods for getting down on RAS releases, those methods would likely cease to exist. This is why Edward gives general, rather than specific, advice.
The first thing I'd make sure to do is get several outs. That way, if one book did turn you away, you could just take your $ and put it into one of your other outs.
If you haven't checked it out yet, read up on this site where Edward gives some really good advice for playing his picks...
http://www.handicapper.net/userguide.php
Best of luck to everyone.
This is a difficult question. I'd recommend doing some reading on the Kelly Criterion (check out the Wikipedia page for starters) and then play around with a Kelly calculator. Here's a straightforward one: Kelly Calculator. SBR has a better one that factors in multiple bets at once, but the one I linked to is simpler to use. Then we get to the tricky parts...
1. You have to come up with a projected win % for whatever RAS plays you're betting. Hope it helps.
2. You have to decide how risk-seeking or risk-averse you want to be (most pros advise using fractional Kelly, something like 1/2 or 1/4 of what Kelly recommends to lower your risk of ruin as full Kelly is meant to maximize BR growth, but carries significant risk in the event of a losing streak).
Some general advice... Make sure you define your BR properly. I've always liked the definition Stanford Wong used in one of his earlier blackjack books. He stated that one's BR should be defined as however much money one can devote to betting that, if lost, would cause one to quit betting forever. You don't have to take it to that extreme, but if it can be easily replenished, then that's not your true BR. For example, if you deposit 5K offshore, but can easily send another 5K that's sitting in a savings account, your real BR is 10K, not 5K. Once that's done, play around with the Kelly calculator to come up with a reasonable bet amount. Saying you want to bet $150 per play is working backwards. Your BR and edge should determine your bet size. Most likely, you should land somewhere in the 1-4% range unless you decide to be super aggressive. Remember, overestimating your edge is very dangerous. Using fractional Kelly helps with this. Lastly, you should technically re-size your bets as often as possible, but to be practical, you might want to do so weekly, or whenever your BR increases/decreases by a certain amount, like 10%.
Sorry if this was a tad long-winded; it's not a simple subject.
Indeed, the RAS user guide answers and discusses a lot of these questions and issues, please review it carefully.