Betting Talk

Hope nobody is on RAS plays

elwayisgodelwayisgod Senior Member
edited March 2010 in Sports Betting
Once again I'm the jinxer. Not looking good. If current pace keeps up, both will lose :sad: It's absolutely unreal how when I play the plays, there is never an easy winner. Always a blowout against me or very close. I hope I didn't jinx it for everyone.

Comments

  • HowardBealHowardBeal Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    Something tells me you should not be betting......
  • elwayisgodelwayisgod Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    No shit :) I'm telling you. When I play his plays, bad happens. So I lay off and he goes on a 13-3 run. I sign up again and then disaster hits... I'm jinxed is all I'm saying.
  • beefcakebeefcake Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    gotta play em all man,and use sound Money Management.
  • elwayisgodelwayisgod Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    Uconn fucking blows donkey goats. Is all I know. Our only hope is that VCU game goes over. It's right on the number. Maybe some fouls and made free throws for a change.
  • dynastydynasty Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    these posts are useless and obnoxious...go punch a pillow or something
  • elwayisgodelwayisgod Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    Doesn't matter what money mgt you have is you hit 30%. Need to sneak over the 50% range and play the same $ amount on each play. But I can't crack 50% for some reason with RAS. I even got decent lines from book at 124 on Uconn and 139.5 on VCU.... It's getting worse as projected are 118 and 132 with 6 min left in each.. Need some free points from the line...
  • dynastydynasty Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    these boards are about postive contributions and making money, not complaining every time you blow your allowance. just no need for this stuff.
  • ChaseGChaseG Banned
    edited March 2010
    :@ :idoit:
  • katwkatw Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    Too Funny! Best laugh I've had all day.
  • MikeNyceMikeNyce Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    Got a funny feeling the Uconn total will land on 125
  • MikeNyceMikeNyce Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    Yeah and VCU on 141
  • calzonesayscalzonesays Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    Down goes Elwayisgod.....THUD...

    what a troll that guy was
  • wcf1214wcf1214 Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    u can stop crying vcu is a over
  • xlcfxlcf Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    dynasty wrote:
    these boards are about postive contributions and making money, not complaining every time you blow your allowance. just no need for this stuff.

    I didn't play any RAS pick since I haven't subscribed yet. I'm saving money to do so. dynasty is absolutely correct -- I couldn't find better words. Thanks for your words.
  • SprintCarsSprintCars Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    Elway, your negativity gives off bad karma. please don't play them....please...
  • jakenhljakenhl Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    Not a very bright post and if you were actually following these two games the score range and the pace of both games had a very good chance of going over. You have to remember the last 2-3 minutes of games can be a foul fest and both games were in good position to have just that. The UConn game just didn't get out of the one possession game where we would have seen that foul fest.

    Good luck.

    Eddie
  • styler22styler22 Banned
    edited March 2010
    You may be the jinx but anyone who follows knows RAS does extremely well in November and December and then struggles or breaks even in late Feb and March. Really cold right now.. Very lucky to win one total tonight. The last halftime was not even close nor have been many totals lately. All in all, still the best totals capper out there. Just better to play heavier in Nov and Dec if one can.
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited March 2010
    styler22 wrote:
    You may be the jinx but anyone who follows knows RAS does extremely well in November and December and then struggles or breaks even in late Feb and March. Really cold right now.. Very lucky to win one total tonight. The last halftime was not even close nor have been many totals lately. All in all, still the best totals capper out there. Just better to play heavier in Nov and Dec if one can.

    While I won't argue with the general idea that lines are softer early on, I'd be careful going overboard about 'struggling' in late February. From 2/20 to 2/28 RAS went 17-3 on totals and 8-2 on sides.

    Also, your definition of 'really cold' must be different than mine. Looks like RAS will be just below even in both sides and totals for March after tonight. I only wish that was representative of a bad month for me.

    Again, I'm not saying your point is totally invalid, but I think your choice of wording could be better.

    EDIT: Forgot to mention HT plays, which are 11-3-2 in March (and the ties were even wins for some people).
  • RightAngleRightAngle Admin
    edited March 2010
    styler22 wrote:
    You may be the jinx but anyone who follows knows RAS does extremely well in November and December and then struggles or breaks even in late Feb and March. Really cold right now.. Very lucky to win one total tonight. The last halftime was not even close nor have been many totals lately. All in all, still the best totals capper out there. Just better to play heavier in Nov and Dec if one can.

    Certainly everyone would agree that there are more opportunites to find big edges earlier in the season than late in the season, but that is not to say the service has not been profitable in March. We have gone 82-64 (56.16%) in March the previous 3 seasons. We are 26-24 so far this March, winning both 1.5 UNIT plays. We also have a 63% NCAA tournament record the past 5 seasons.

    A lot of people who take a shortsighted approach have missed out on a lot of profits this past year. Whether it be taking a pass on our college football service (+22.10 units in 8 weeks), taking a pass on college basketball sides (+15.10 units), or taking a pass on the CBB service past January 1st (+33.10 units).

    In general, I do not advise timing when or when not to follow a service. You just never know when good or bad streaks will come. If you think a handicapper has a clear edge, follow that handicapper all the time. If you do not think a handicapper has a clear edge, do not follow that handicapper at all.

    As for the halftime thread, it is our first year doing it and the results have consistently been good throughout the season. As Goats mentioned, 11-3-2 in March alone. The fact that the Nevada total covered easily or the Colorado State total did not come close to covering has very little relevance on the big picture.
  • 192700192700 Member
    edited March 2010
    playing any service is just like playing the stock market and you don't want to try and time the stock market do you?? well maybe the foolish do? you never know when that big run up will come, most all of us that subscribe do so because we believe RAS will win the money.
  • TotallyTiltTotallyTilt Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    I think people have very unrealistic expectations when it comes to following a winning handicapper. RAS is one of, if not the best in the business and probably picks winners in the 55-60% range (I don't have exact numbers in front of me). The bottom line is that losing streaks are inevitable when there's a 40-45% chance you can lose a game. In fact losing streaks are a virtual certainty over the long run. If you can't accept this, deal with this, or manage your money to anticipate this, then you should think twice before placing another bet.
  • hornhorn Super Moderator
    edited March 2010
    I think people have very unrealistic expectations when it comes to following a winning handicapper. RAS is one of, if not the best in the business and probably picks winners in the 55-60% range (I don't have exact numbers in front of me). The bottom line is that losing streaks are inevitable when there's a 40-45% chance you can lose a game. In fact losing streaks are a virtual certainty over the long run. If you can't accept this, deal with this, or manage your money to anticipate this, then you should think twice before placing another bet.

    Another solid post. Very well put.
  • jadejade Member
    edited March 2010
    I agree with last 2 posts only if RAS sell his service by the entire season only and not on weekly or monthly basis. I for one bought his package for one month only the last 3 years and lost all 3 years in middle of his loosing streak. I think it was all in November months, and it got me gun shy to purchase any additional month. Granted many games I lost because I could not get my bets in early before lines moved due to my work. looking at his archives, looks like he had done well over the seasons.
  • BigPermBigPerm Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    I concider this site like a SECOND HOME, and people that UNDERSTAND JUST WHAT A 60%+ win rate means, are like A SECOND FAMILY.

    People like Elway are just annoying neighbors.

    Like I said before, People on that one forum go on to bash RAS, and they sound so stupid that it actually burns me up.

    Ed. That Willy Mays needs his ass kicked, and that idiot with the Zoolander Avatar. Ok. I've vented, now back to taking care of patients.
  • TotallyTiltTotallyTilt Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    jade wrote:
    I agree with last 2 posts only if RAS sell his service by the entire season only and not on weekly or monthly basis. I for one bought his package for one month only the last 3 years and lost all 3 years in middle of his loosing streak. I think it was all in November months, and it got me gun shy to purchase any additional month. Granted many games I lost because I could not get my bets in early before lines moved due to my work. looking at his archives, looks like he had done well over the seasons.

    I'm not sure how you can discount what we are saying or fault RAS for selling weekly or monthly packages. I'm sure there are a number of people who have bought weekly and monthly packages that have won. I'd be willing to bet that more than 50% of the people who have bought weekly and monthly packages have made money. And I'm guessing they'd be pretty upset if RAS took that option away from them.

    You mentioned you're not getting your bets in before the line moves and that is a very big deal. When you're dealing with a relatively small edge of 5-10%, you could be losing most or even all of that edge depending on the numbers you're getting. I'd be a lot more focused on that than bemoaning my luck if I were you.
  • cabster13cabster13 Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    Fact of the matter is you evaluate on the timeframe you purchase. I could care less if a capper has been hot as hell if when I get on board he tanks. Thta has been my case also when I have joined RAS off of a tout that he is killing the number. Too many good cappers that do not charge and frankly got tired of getting screwed trying to get a line anywhere near where RAS has isued his line. To his credit he moves lines but I work a lot of hours and do not have the luxery of shopping lines or being available to nail down a play within minutes of it's release! Good luck to all who follow RAS ... it has just never worked for me as I too seem to jump on board just before the bottom drops out!
  • RightAngleRightAngle Admin
    edited March 2010
    When you subscribe to any service for a short period of time, you are at the mercy of variance. There is much more risk of losing than there is with a long term subscription.

    As I wrote in post 20:

    I do not advise timing when or when not to follow a service. You just never know when good or bad streaks will come. If you think a handicapper has a clear edge, follow that handicapper all the time. If you do not think a handicapper has a clear edge, do not follow that handicapper at all.

    The bottom line is that anyone who has followed RAS long term has been profitable, particularly for the last four years, regardless if they got the release line on all plays or not.
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited March 2010
    cabster13 wrote:
    Fact of the matter is you evaluate on the timeframe you purchase. I could care less if a capper has been hot as hell if when I get on board he tanks. Thta has been my case also when I have joined RAS off of a tout that he is killing the number. Too many good cappers that do not charge and frankly got tired of getting screwed trying to get a line anywhere near where RAS has isued his line. To his credit he moves lines but I work a lot of hours and do not have the luxery of shopping lines or being available to nail down a play within minutes of it's release! Good luck to all who follow RAS ... it has just never worked for me as I too seem to jump on board just before the bottom drops out!

    Short version... this service is not for you, which is totally understandable.

    But only evaluating the time frame you happen to purchase is ridiculous. There is variance associated with gambling and it hits even those playing with the largest of edges. You want to evaluate a capper based on the long-term whenever possible. You shouldn't judge someone on a short term losing streak anymore than you should judge RAS on the 25-5 run at the end of February. In the long-run, the service will not hit 83% nor will it hit whatever % you've deemed as "tanking."
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