The State of Washington Report--Week 2
kkirk
Senior Member
1-1 last week as Ok St. easily defeats Washington State, but Oregon outscores UW 30-0 in the 2nd half and easily covers the 14.
Onward:
Washington State:
Cougs looked actually ok on defense last week against what figures to be a pretty good offensive team in OK St. (Cougs gave up 376 last weekend). Special teams was a major problem for WSU, as it was last year (OSU returned a kickoff for a TD AND almost returned a punt for a TD). The Cougs are supposed to get their punter back, who averaged over 40 yards per kick last year, but their placekicking is pathetic and whoever kicks is lucky if his kickoffs go beyond the other teams' 10 yard line.
This is the first Pac-10 game for both teams and both have 2 weeks of non-conference games afterwards, so we can't say that Cal might look past WSU to a stronger league opponent. Line is now Cal -13 1/2 with the total at 51, which means linesmakers put the score in the range of 32-14, 30-17 area. Martin Stadium is a tough place to play, this is the first home game of the year (last week's game was in Seattle), and I'm going to say that WSU's offense improves a bit from last week and that their defense will also improve. Cal's offense was revamped over the offseason in wake of another 2nd half collapse and the QB is young, though he did beat out the veteran Longshore during camp.
Pick: Mid range scoring game makes 13 1/2 a lot of points: WSU +13 1/2
University of Washington:
No way to see last weekend's game as anything but a debacle for the Huskies. Last year the team suffered several 2nd half collapses and the opening game of this year was no different. After falling behind 14-0, the Huskies controlled the rest of the half and trailed 14-10. It got ugly from there and even Oregon's 4th string QB ran over the Dawgs in the 2nd half and a 44-10 drubbing was the result.
I said last week that QB Locker would most likely improve his accuracy as a passer this year, and that still may be true, but he looked like the '07 version against the Ducks. He ran for almost 60 yards, but was only 12-28 for only 103 yards throwing. Locker did miss quite a bit of time (about 12 practices) in pre-season with a hamstring problem and he has a VERY young receiving corps, so there is room for improvement.
UW plays BYU this weekend and I'm reading articles about how the Cougars want to run the table to get into a BCS game. BYU plays at home next weekend against UCLA so this is a pretty tough 1-2 punch, though the Huskies clearly don't pack the punch they used to. BYU is strictly a passing team, running up almost 500 yeards in the air against N.Iowa last weekend and only 77 yards on the ground. The Huskies appear to have virtually NO offensive weapons outside of Locker and couldn't run or pass vs. Oregon. Not wild about making a pick here, as I think the line is about right at BYU -9. I'm gonna go ahead and take the points for two reasons; 1)the Huskies are in just about a must-win situation as they will not beat Oklahoma next weekend, and they would be, if the game were being played today, an underdog to Stanford, who they play on 9/27. If they go 0-4 to start, Willingham could get the ax in mid-season after their bye week in the 2nd week of October, and then they'd be just playing out the string; 2) this game kind reminds me of their game against Boise St. last year, who they beat as an underdog (probably their best win of the last several years); 3) (i know i said 2 reasons, but a 3rd hit me while I was taking a break), the Huskies looked SO BAD last weekend that they can only improve and I figure the current line reflects how bad they really looked. If they can just be ok in the 2nd half, they can at least cover.
Seahawks--
Getting tired here, so quicker analysis (besides, I much prefer college football to the pros). Seahawk fans have big expectations this year, in what will be Mike Holmgren's last year. My personal opinion is that they are about a 10 win team, mostly owing to the fact that they play in the weakest division in football. They should win 5 in the division, maybe 6, and that means they only have to win 4 or 5 more. They have a tough schedule however, with non-divisional games against New England, Tampa, NYG, Washington, Philly and Dallas. To me, if they want to get to 10 wins, they have to beat Buffalo, the Jets, Miami, 5 divisional games and then 2 of the above mentioned teams. Not an easy task.
As for the team outlook, they should be strong on defense, with all 11 starters back and pretty good depth (though two of them, Bernard and Babineaux, are suspended for this week's game). Offense is another question. The run game was non-existent last year, and the team publicly abandonded it the last third of the season in '07. The offensive line has been re-worked and '05 MVP Shaun Alexander was let go and Julius Jones signed in his place. Additionally, the receiving corps has been wiped out of all its veterans because of injuries and some real youngsters will see most of the time in these first few weeks.
This week's game: The Hawks traditionally perform poorly in the 10 a.m. (Pacific time) games on the east coast. The year they went to the Super Bowl, they lost their first game of the season on the east coast in a 10 a.m. game (i think it was Jacksonville, if memory serves). QB Hasselbeck has played in only 1 game in preseason because of a sore back and so has had little time to get comfortable with the young receivers. Buffalo is favored by 1 and I'm gonna take the 1 point, mostly because, as I mentioned above, they need this one to get to the magical 10 wins. The play I REALLY like is the Under. Buffalo ranked either 29th or 30th in defense last year and 29th or 30th in offense last year and they had 5 wins, 4 of them against the Jets and the Dolphins. They Hawks have a revamped running game that will take a while to jell, a QB who is a little rusty, a strong defense, an inconsistent placekicker, and one of their starting O-line is out this week (Locklear). The number is 38 1/2.
Recap:
WSU + 13 1/2
UW + 9
Seahawks +1, Under 38 1/2
(Not usually such a homer--at least the're all dogs).
Onward:
Washington State:
Cougs looked actually ok on defense last week against what figures to be a pretty good offensive team in OK St. (Cougs gave up 376 last weekend). Special teams was a major problem for WSU, as it was last year (OSU returned a kickoff for a TD AND almost returned a punt for a TD). The Cougs are supposed to get their punter back, who averaged over 40 yards per kick last year, but their placekicking is pathetic and whoever kicks is lucky if his kickoffs go beyond the other teams' 10 yard line.
This is the first Pac-10 game for both teams and both have 2 weeks of non-conference games afterwards, so we can't say that Cal might look past WSU to a stronger league opponent. Line is now Cal -13 1/2 with the total at 51, which means linesmakers put the score in the range of 32-14, 30-17 area. Martin Stadium is a tough place to play, this is the first home game of the year (last week's game was in Seattle), and I'm going to say that WSU's offense improves a bit from last week and that their defense will also improve. Cal's offense was revamped over the offseason in wake of another 2nd half collapse and the QB is young, though he did beat out the veteran Longshore during camp.
Pick: Mid range scoring game makes 13 1/2 a lot of points: WSU +13 1/2
University of Washington:
No way to see last weekend's game as anything but a debacle for the Huskies. Last year the team suffered several 2nd half collapses and the opening game of this year was no different. After falling behind 14-0, the Huskies controlled the rest of the half and trailed 14-10. It got ugly from there and even Oregon's 4th string QB ran over the Dawgs in the 2nd half and a 44-10 drubbing was the result.
I said last week that QB Locker would most likely improve his accuracy as a passer this year, and that still may be true, but he looked like the '07 version against the Ducks. He ran for almost 60 yards, but was only 12-28 for only 103 yards throwing. Locker did miss quite a bit of time (about 12 practices) in pre-season with a hamstring problem and he has a VERY young receiving corps, so there is room for improvement.
UW plays BYU this weekend and I'm reading articles about how the Cougars want to run the table to get into a BCS game. BYU plays at home next weekend against UCLA so this is a pretty tough 1-2 punch, though the Huskies clearly don't pack the punch they used to. BYU is strictly a passing team, running up almost 500 yeards in the air against N.Iowa last weekend and only 77 yards on the ground. The Huskies appear to have virtually NO offensive weapons outside of Locker and couldn't run or pass vs. Oregon. Not wild about making a pick here, as I think the line is about right at BYU -9. I'm gonna go ahead and take the points for two reasons; 1)the Huskies are in just about a must-win situation as they will not beat Oklahoma next weekend, and they would be, if the game were being played today, an underdog to Stanford, who they play on 9/27. If they go 0-4 to start, Willingham could get the ax in mid-season after their bye week in the 2nd week of October, and then they'd be just playing out the string; 2) this game kind reminds me of their game against Boise St. last year, who they beat as an underdog (probably their best win of the last several years); 3) (i know i said 2 reasons, but a 3rd hit me while I was taking a break), the Huskies looked SO BAD last weekend that they can only improve and I figure the current line reflects how bad they really looked. If they can just be ok in the 2nd half, they can at least cover.
Seahawks--
Getting tired here, so quicker analysis (besides, I much prefer college football to the pros). Seahawk fans have big expectations this year, in what will be Mike Holmgren's last year. My personal opinion is that they are about a 10 win team, mostly owing to the fact that they play in the weakest division in football. They should win 5 in the division, maybe 6, and that means they only have to win 4 or 5 more. They have a tough schedule however, with non-divisional games against New England, Tampa, NYG, Washington, Philly and Dallas. To me, if they want to get to 10 wins, they have to beat Buffalo, the Jets, Miami, 5 divisional games and then 2 of the above mentioned teams. Not an easy task.
As for the team outlook, they should be strong on defense, with all 11 starters back and pretty good depth (though two of them, Bernard and Babineaux, are suspended for this week's game). Offense is another question. The run game was non-existent last year, and the team publicly abandonded it the last third of the season in '07. The offensive line has been re-worked and '05 MVP Shaun Alexander was let go and Julius Jones signed in his place. Additionally, the receiving corps has been wiped out of all its veterans because of injuries and some real youngsters will see most of the time in these first few weeks.
This week's game: The Hawks traditionally perform poorly in the 10 a.m. (Pacific time) games on the east coast. The year they went to the Super Bowl, they lost their first game of the season on the east coast in a 10 a.m. game (i think it was Jacksonville, if memory serves). QB Hasselbeck has played in only 1 game in preseason because of a sore back and so has had little time to get comfortable with the young receivers. Buffalo is favored by 1 and I'm gonna take the 1 point, mostly because, as I mentioned above, they need this one to get to the magical 10 wins. The play I REALLY like is the Under. Buffalo ranked either 29th or 30th in defense last year and 29th or 30th in offense last year and they had 5 wins, 4 of them against the Jets and the Dolphins. They Hawks have a revamped running game that will take a while to jell, a QB who is a little rusty, a strong defense, an inconsistent placekicker, and one of their starting O-line is out this week (Locklear). The number is 38 1/2.
Recap:
WSU + 13 1/2
UW + 9
Seahawks +1, Under 38 1/2
(Not usually such a homer--at least the're all dogs).
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