I screwed up with the contest. What happen was there was two contests that I was invited to BT's and Game Hunter from Twitter and another site. Game hunter was $200 entry fee so I wanted see how people were in and after checking it out I went to BT's. The next day somehow my fault obviously thinking I was on BT's put in my plays. Last night I get an email that I didn't pay from Game Hunter. So I messed up as I thought I did. We used that site for years for our King of hill and survivor contests. Good Luck today 6-0 so far in tournament and starting today off with Michigan -135 (Bet Yesterday) and Seton Hall -PK-
You've played every game of the NCAA tournament Thurs, Fri, Sat. Do you really think you have an edge on every single game? You are not getting any line value at all. Just wondering if what you think is "value" is really value.
....anyone that makes lines , knows there is value there ,thats all it is , how much value you need for a play is up to whomever
my lines says zags 5.5, kansas -4,
....anyone that makes lines , knows there is value there ,thats all it is , how much value you need for a play is up to whomever
my lines says zags 5.5, kansas -4,
....anyone that makes lines , knows there is value there ,thats all it is , how much value you need for a play is up to whomever
my lines says zags 5.5, kansas -4,
good luck in baseball
how far off your lines do you need a number to be to make a play
normally 2 or less ....95% of my model plays have a var. of 2 or less...anything OVER 3 there is something wrong , basically injury related ..i dont worry to much about that in college ,and just because i have line difference of 2 or less doesnt make it an automatic selection, i have to check a couple of other factors . sorry about delayed response at my son college baseball game.....
fwiw ...personally if I had a difference of 4 pts off the close , i would think something is wrong with MY line... if you can get within 3 or less of the close , i would think your onto something ...a good model ...my tor play in the nba last night for an example was within my limits...but had other check marks for the play....my line on the knicks games was sas -13.75 ...close was 14.5 or 15 so a play would be on the knicks ...but those other check marks said not to take the knicks , knicks covered o well.
722 fla -3.5 everyone knows what happened in that fla loss and it wont happen again. def eff are close but off eff not so close .
723 kentucky +2.5 -115
fwiw ...personally if I had a difference of 4 pts off the close , i would think something is wrong with MY line... if you can get within 3 or less of the close , i would think your onto something ...a good model ...my tor play in the nba last night for an example was within my limits...but had other check marks for the play....my line on the knicks games was sas -13.75 ...close was 14.5 or 15 so a play would be on the knicks ...but those other check marks said not to take the knicks , knicks covered o well.
Well no model is going to have every piece of info, what you want is something that picks up something that's not yet in the line. I know through extensive proper backtesting and a couple of years of actual betting that cbb sides that are 4 pts off my model (morning lines) hit ~54% and will close on average close to 1pt better. Bigger differences do better.
If a fair line is -13.75 on an nba game and you are only getting 14.5 you are looking at a 53% play assuming your model is 100% right and the market line is 100% wrong. That's just not realistic. Even a really good model the fair line is probably somewhere in the middle, and NBA is a fking monster to model properly.
durito ...am with you brother , i agree on everything your saying trust me. Let me ask you something though...do you think you found the fountain of youth with your model ? it seems to me the market just cant be off by 4 pts on a game. I would love to see your lines on the rest of the sked tonight..
today in the nba my line on mil was 4.64 shouldve taken chi +6.5 ...2 pts off my line but didnt because of a check mark...
same with gsw my line is gsw -9.39 should take mem + 10.5 but once again a check mark tell me not to take it...
my line for other games tonight before the game starts.
port -2.75
den -6.42
gsw -9.39
ind -5.02
bost -5.85
Comments
549 miss +4 -105
555 kan st +2
luck
luck
533 st joes +3 -115
543 geo +7 -105
593 wf +2 -105
707 micg st +4.5
luck
557 rich +7.5
luck
639 cold +2
luck
721 nc wil +8
727 xav +2 -115
740 nw +2 -105
743 vcu +4.5 -105
luck
819 marq +1.5
823 s hall +1 ...love this game
832 dayton +6
839 mig st +2.5
luck
luck
I screwed up with the contest. What happen was there was two contests that I was invited to BT's and Game Hunter from Twitter and another site. Game hunter was $200 entry fee so I wanted see how people were in and after checking it out I went to BT's. The next day somehow my fault obviously thinking I was on BT's put in my plays. Last night I get an email that I didn't pay from Game Hunter. So I messed up as I thought I did. We used that site for years for our King of hill and survivor contests. Good Luck today 6-0 so far in tournament and starting today off with Michigan -135 (Bet Yesterday) and Seton Hall -PK-
3/18
wrong favorite
521 virg +1.5
luck
No I'm in two $50 ones somewhere else.
723 wic +3.5 -115
729 r i +5
731 cinn +3.5 -115
luck
812 kansas -5
813 micg -1 -105
816 zags -3 -105
818 ariz -7.5 -105
luck
873 s car +3
877 butler +7
luck
luck
luck
butler was a play forgot i put it in at 1 pm
511 org +7 -115
513 xavier +8.5
luck
my lines says zags 5.5, kansas -4,
good luck in baseball
What's your evidence of the value?
how far off your lines do you need a number to be to make a play
723 kentucky +2.5 -115
luck
Well no model is going to have every piece of info, what you want is something that picks up something that's not yet in the line. I know through extensive proper backtesting and a couple of years of actual betting that cbb sides that are 4 pts off my model (morning lines) hit ~54% and will close on average close to 1pt better. Bigger differences do better.
If a fair line is -13.75 on an nba game and you are only getting 14.5 you are looking at a 53% play assuming your model is 100% right and the market line is 100% wrong. That's just not realistic. Even a really good model the fair line is probably somewhere in the middle, and NBA is a fking monster to model properly.
today in the nba my line on mil was 4.64 shouldve taken chi +6.5 ...2 pts off my line but didnt because of a check mark...
same with gsw my line is gsw -9.39 should take mem + 10.5 but once again a check mark tell me not to take it...
my line for other games tonight before the game starts.
port -2.75
den -6.42
gsw -9.39
ind -5.02
bost -5.85