durito ...am with you brother , i agree on everything your saying trust me. Let me ask you something though...do you think you found the fountain of youth with your model ? it seems to me the market just cant be off by 4 pts on a game. I would love to see your lines on the rest of the sked tonight..
today in the nba my line on mil was 4.64 shouldve taken chi +6.5 ...2 pts off my line but didnt because of a check mark...
same with gsw my line is gsw -9.39 should take mem + 10.5 but once again a check mark tell me not to take it...
my line for other games tonight before the game starts.
port -2.75
den -6.42
gsw -9.39
ind -5.02
bost -5.85
CBB market can be off by 4+ pts. It is regularly. IMO I won't trust a model that doesn't get better the bigger the difference.
durito ...am with you brother , i agree on everything your saying trust me. Let me ask you something though...do you think you found the fountain of youth with your model ? it seems to me the market just cant be off by 4 pts on a game. I would love to see your lines on the rest of the sked tonight..
today in the nba my line on mil was 4.64 shouldve taken chi +6.5 ...2 pts off my line but didnt because of a check mark...
same with gsw my line is gsw -9.39 should take mem + 10.5 but once again a check mark tell me not to take it...
my line for other games tonight before the game starts.
port -2.75
den -6.42
gsw -9.39
ind -5.02
bost -5.85
If my model says -4 and the line is 8, I do not believe the market line is off by 4 pts. I just know when my model is 4pts off, I usually have a bout a 54% play at +8 which means the fair line is probably ~ 7 and more often than not it closes around there. If my model were perfect then yes I'd bet 1pt differences but that's somewhat absurd. And yes, I know there are better models and people out there with smaller strike points. It's something I refine every year and try to lower.
I don't model NBA, it's a beast. I do every other basketball league in the world and my models don't do anything but flip coins vs NBA. Need something way better on a player level than anything I've worked on.
StevieY , am just talking about the nba only ....not college hoops. What do YOU think about the NBA ? Like Durito i try to refine all the time...In the nba i have it down pretty much to 3 pts or less to the close when there isnt an injury that would effect the line.
thanks for your input
StevieY , am just talking about the nba only ....not college hoops. What do YOU think about the NBA ? Like Durito i try to refine all the time...In the nba i have it down pretty much to 3 pts or less to the close when there isnt an injury that would effect the line.
thanks for your input
Agree with Durito about the NBA. It's a waste of time unless you get into player data. There is probably a little bit to grind out but IMO, not worth the time. I plan on going thru everything but CBB this summer to decide what I want to try and what I want to dump forever. The NBA is the one sport I am not expecting anything out of but we will see. My current CBB model is by far the best model I have ever had, but CBB/NBA are totally different.
Well for the most part i think ive done well in getting this nba model down right , only time will tell.
Thanks again on input and great job on your site.
Comments
CBB market can be off by 4+ pts. It is regularly. IMO I won't trust a model that doesn't get better the bigger the difference.
If my model says -4 and the line is 8, I do not believe the market line is off by 4 pts. I just know when my model is 4pts off, I usually have a bout a 54% play at +8 which means the fair line is probably ~ 7 and more often than not it closes around there. If my model were perfect then yes I'd bet 1pt differences but that's somewhat absurd. And yes, I know there are better models and people out there with smaller strike points. It's something I refine every year and try to lower.
I don't model NBA, it's a beast. I do every other basketball league in the world and my models don't do anything but flip coins vs NBA. Need something way better on a player level than anything I've worked on.
thanks for your input
Agree with Durito about the NBA. It's a waste of time unless you get into player data. There is probably a little bit to grind out but IMO, not worth the time. I plan on going thru everything but CBB this summer to decide what I want to try and what I want to dump forever. The NBA is the one sport I am not expecting anything out of but we will see. My current CBB model is by far the best model I have ever had, but CBB/NBA are totally different.
Thanks again on input and great job on your site.
813 org +4.5
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