He realized at this point that he had been ignoring her for several minutes, but she didn’t seem to mind. Her tone of voice was suddenly different, and she sounded like she was from Southern California. She produced a thick, dark brown leather box that had an odd insignia on it. It looked like two friars, bearded and wearing shoes, each of them holding a raised sword, standing on a scroll charged with the motto: DEO JUVANTE.
Inside were two decks of playing cards that were obviously at least a hundred years old and had scarcely been used, even if they didn’t still have the cellophane on them. The pattern on the backs was quite odd. On the first, the background was off-white, and a series of jagged lines, half of them powder blue, the other half dark crimson alternated in a completely haphazard pattern. The backs of the second deck were a light yellow background, and a green foreground depicting a prairie in Western Europe just as the sun went down. A vast fall of fir trees lined the near horizon, while an upside down v-fence ran alongside a pond. A farm boy holding a scythe was leaning against the fence staring at the setting sun.
She fanned out both decks of cards, and he was duly impressed at how handsome they were. She turned them over and he started to examine the fronts. Something about the design made it seem that they had been created completely by hand. She had been silent but started to speak after it became apparent that he was starting to lose his focus.
“These decks were a gift to Prince Charles III of Monaco on his twenty-second birthday from a nobleman in his father’s court. The insignia on the box is his family’s crest. Minimal wear despite a century of age.”
Benny couldn’t think of anything else to say. He was going to ask how much they were, but he knew he couldn’t afford them. If he had to guess, they were a healthy three-figure sum, and that was well out of his range. He figured that if he was quiet and pensive, she’d volunteer the price.
“Seventeen dollars,” she said.
“Do you take Carte Blanche?”
She gave him the long look. He paid here with three fives and two singles.
“Listen, what was…”
“Sh…if you’re patient, you’ll find the answer on your own,” she said.
He turned to leave. “This might be a ridiculous question, but would you like to have coffee with me sometime?”
She shook her head.
It was 9 o’clock, so he still had five hours to kill before the meeting with the Beard. He would double back to the car and put the cards in the trunk. Only seventeen dollars? What was the significance of that price? And why hadn’t she put the money into a register? The wall of the north face of the building was white stone. Someone had spray-painted the message, “Shepherdess no temptation poussin and teniers hold the key pax 681 by the cross and this horse of God I finish this guardian at midday blue apples.” He wrote down the message on a receipt in his back pocket and kept going.
He had wanted to be sober and alert for the meeting, but now he decided to find a bar. He headed west on Bourbon Street and stopped near the place with the loudest music coming out. He couldn’t read the writing on the sign, but there were two yellow bears dancing on it. Two girls in their early twenties were standing on the sidewalk, holding trays of shots of what looked like a very foul tasting blue liquid. One had long black hair and oozed passive hostility. The other was shorter, with shoulder length brown hair and soft green eyes.
Benny knew instinctively that a conversation with the black haired one would lead nowhere. Surprisingly, she spoke to him.
“I feel like getting in trouble tonight.”
“Yeah? Well, Trouble is my first name.”
“Do you play Dungeons and Dragons?”
That was easily the oddest non-sequitur he’d ever heard. “No, I’m more of a Magic the Gathering person.”
He was able to hide the sarcasm, but he was still lying. He had never played Magic.
“Really? It’s okay, but I’m more of a D+D gal. Anyway, I’m going to a party later, and a lot of cool people are going to be gaming there. You’re more than welcome to come with me. It’ll be super fun.”
Benny took a long moment to size her up. It was obviously some sort of trap, even though she didn’t know she was intentionally setting one. He was sure that he knew women like that perfectly, but he stopped to wonder if he had misread her. He saw her as being from a somewhat large family, maybe three or four children that her father had walked out on, either because he realized he didn’t have a job that could support them or because he couldn’t stand her mother, or some combination of the two.
Girls like that always discover sex at a very young age, so by the time she was a freshman in high school, she was probably already dating seniors, and sleeping with someone new every few weeks. That was about as long it would take for the boy to realize that there was nothing compelling about her other than being easy, and he would dump her. She would have developed a large sense of conceit because of all the positive male attention, and wound up with an extroverted type-a personality by the time she was in early adulthood.
People like this tend to be the smartest in their nuclear family, and they consequently mistake their slightly above average intellect with true genius. After high school, she couldn’t afford college, so she had started in the blue-collar world to “save up for college” only to wind up having two children with different guys by the time she turned twenty-one, neither of whom had any interest in supporting the children or seeing her again. To insulate herself from future heartache, she developed a jaded approach to dealing with men, in which she never displayed her true emotions, instead offering only sweet pleasantries to get what she wanted from them, or venom when they withheld it.
It took Benny less than three seconds to piece all of this together, and he was certain he was at least 90% accurate. He was relieved when customers came up to talk to the tall one, and he noticed the other one for the first time. She looked exactly like a girl he had gone to college with, an Italian from Western Massachusetts who he had always had a huge crush on that he had blown by acting a drunken idiot. She said her name was Jamie. She turned her head at a forty-five degree angle, but she was smiling the whole time and blushed frequently. Her teeth were flawless, and only an upper-middle class family could have afforded such an orthodontist.
She seemed shy, but not introverted, and warmed up to him as the conversation went on. Paying her way through UNO as a Kinesiology Major. He didn’t know what that was, but she explained it very enthusiastically. She had one of the most down to earth personalities of anyone he had met in a long time. The kind of person who laughs a great deal, but not because they’re simple minded and easily amused. After ten minutes, they had gotten into the whole, “What do your parents do? How many brothers and sisters do you have?” part of the conversation that all new couples go through early on.
Her father worked in a factory, her mother at a department store. Two brothers and a sister. Benny finessed all his answers on the same subject and was relieved when she didn’t press for details. She was starting to make eye contact with him. The tall girl was starting to stare daggers at them since Jaime hadn’t sold a shot the whole time they had been talking. A bouncer was staring at him suspiciously through the window. He made his move.
“Listen, I’m sorry to ask you this because I know you’re here to work and not get hit on, but opportunities like this don’t come along very often in my life. Could I buy you dinner sometime?”
She giggled and bit her lip. “Um…sure. Can you go upstairs and meet me there later? I feel too nervous about giving you my number in front of her.”
Benny complied instantaneously. The bar was very loud, but not too crowded, and surprisingly, half the customers were middle-aged. There was a wooden staircase along the back wall. As was often the case, the upstairs bar featured three bartenders waiting on two customers. The Dodgers were playing the Nationals in L.A., and the first inning was just ending. The bartender was another young woman in her early twenties, who was wearing a uniform that made her look like a dance instructor. Her attitude only got worse when Benny ordered “a bottle of whatever your cheapest beer is”. The furniture in the rest of the room had a lime green hue, and looked like it had been purchased at a Pier 1.
He had no idea when or even if she was going to come up. He figured there was at least a 60% chance she had just told him to go upstairs because she knew it would get him away from her for an hour. He started to think about the graffiti on the wall and decided he would have to ask the poet about it. There would have to be some way that he could frame it without the poet immediately dismissing the idea. Some barely tangible instinct told him that it had been a clue, but it was incredibly arcane and ambiguous. Plus, how could anyone have known that he was going to be on that block? The writing might have seemed like it was done recently, but there wasn’t any way for him to determine so for sure.
After half an hour of him going over these ideas in his head, he saw her coming up the wooden staircase. She scanned the room for ten seconds before her eyes locked on him. She flopped into the seat next to him and sighed very deeply, an overstated show of fatigue. She lit a cigarette, making sure to blow the smoke away from him, and smiled even though there was nothing to smile about. He looked at the pack and was surprised to notice that they were unfiltered Camels.
“What kind of music do you like, Benny?” she asked sweetly.
Music was a subject that he knew practically nothing about, so he lied and said that he was a huge Sinatra fan. His family didn’t allow him to own a radio when he was growing up, so the only music he had access to were his grandfather’s old Sinatra LPs.
Her only response was “Wow”. She was trying to think of a lengthier response, but couldn’t. They wound up talking for a half an hour, mostly about her childhood and family, and he walked away from the conversation feeling very disillusioned. Every thing about, every single aspect of her person was just slightly above average. She seemed completely straightforward, without a trace of enigma, drama, or sadness. Women like that usually marry beneath them, but wind up giving themselves over to the relationship completely, only to be heartbroken when the man doesn’t possess the same level of commitment.
Benny was fond of telling people that he could learn everything he needed to know about a person within five minutes of meeting them, and he was seldom wrong. There was nothing repellant about her, but most of her mental energy was probably spent wondering what TV show she was going to watch next. Her break ended and she wrote her number down for him. Benny drank two more beers and finished watching the Dodger game. He wound up leaving just before one after watching every highlight on the midnight Sportscenter.
He checked his watch and noted that he had 3180 seconds until his meeting with the Beard, but figured it was a certainty that he would arrive twenty minutes late. Tall mean girl was still standing vigil outside.
“Should I stop by around 4ish to drive you to the party?” he asked with complete sincerity. She didn’t say anything, and she didn’t even bother to show her disdain overtly, instead staring at the tap dancers half a block away and not acknowledging Benny’s question.
It was a short walk to the Blacksmith shop, and he figured there was a small chance Beard might show up early. He hadn’t
None of you F-ers ever could nor ever will be able to touch my shit. Nearly 500 plays, 54% winners, positive CLV. Show me anyone else that has done that...ever.
In that case, my erroneous assumption was assuming that you were more knowledgeable than you are. You have to use the entire context. Otherwise your question is pointless. I'm not sure what you think I misinterpreted, but you have three knowledgeable people who've been posting to gambling forums for a very long time basically telling you the same thing, which indicates that my interpretation of your words isn't unique.
You specifically questioned whether he should throw in the towel because of a slightly below average run that's completely routine. I reiterate--to ignore the context, and focus on an isolated poor run, indicates a misunderstanding of variance. Likewise, if someone focused on his current 47-31 run, and wondered if they should be betting his stuff as if he's a 60% handicapper, that would also be incorrect as it ignores the context.
1. The entire context I have is the 143 CBB plays he's posted here this season.
2. I didn't question if he should throw in the towel, I asked at what point (sample) he would consider it.
Reading comprehension clearly isn't a strong suit for you, here was my initial post for your reference. I'll bold a few parts for you.
"buffett - with Dr. H. recently proclaiming in his thread that it's pretty evident he doesn't have an edge with sides, while sitting at 61-68, at what point do you feel you can conclude the same thing with your CBB plays? I'm unsure of your sides vs. totals record breakdowns, but curious to hear at what sample size you feel you have enough information to throw in the towel. At 143 games now going into today, do you feel close to that point?"
It's ironic one of the three 'knowledgeable' people you reference drew a conclusion from his own 129 game sample, which predicated this entire discussion.
No your comment still makes no sense. Any single individual record is "unlikely". So no matter what record he has you could say it was unlikely. Which makes the whole conversation pointless.
Agreed that this conversation has gotten pointless and stupid, but please see baseRunner's post directly above yours where he agrees with me that I'm not necessarily wrong for saying it's improbable for a 54-56% capper to go 70-73 over 143.
Agreed that this conversation has gotten pointless and stupid, but please see baseRunner's post directly above yours where he agrees with me that I'm not necessarily wrong for saying it's improbable for a 54-56% capper to go 70-73 over 143.
It is almost exactly as improbable for him to go 70-73 as it is for him to go exactly 55% so again ridiculous.
1. The entire context I have is the 143 CBB plays he's posted here this season.
2. I didn't question if he should throw in the towel, I asked at what point (sample) he would consider it.
Reading comprehension clearly isn't a strong suit for you, here was my initial post for your reference. I'll bold a few parts for you.
"buffett - with Dr. H. recently proclaiming in his thread that it's pretty evident he doesn't have an edge with sides, while sitting at 61-68, at what point do you feel you can conclude the same thing with your CBB plays? I'm unsure of your sides vs. totals record breakdowns, but curious to hear at what sample size you feel you have enough information to throw in the towel. At 143 games now going into today, do you feel close to that point?"
It's ironic one of the three 'knowledgeable' people you reference drew a conclusion from his own 129 game sample, which predicated this entire discussion.
My decision was must certainly not made on a 129 game sample, and I clearly stated that. For someone that likes to question the reading comprehension of others, you may want to look in the mirror.
Also, you, of all people, should not be putting scare quotes around the word knowledgeable.
I have quite a bit more comprehensive data points to which I am assessing than the 143 games posted. From that, I don't see anything concerning in terms of performance metrics or disconnects in actual vs. expected performance. Any concern that I may take away from the 2014 CBB season would stem from the market side and the slightly diminished equity opportunities it appears to be providing.
Typically classy reply. One would think if anyone were to 'freak out' over a simple question I ask, it would be the person I'm specifically questioning. Not the case here, as BG isn't insecure, and is capable of understanding my question and replying in an intelligent way.
My decision was must certainly not made on a 129 game sample, and I clearly stated that. For someone that likes to question the reading comprehension of others, you may want to look in the mirror.
Also, you, of all people, should not be putting scare quotes around the word knowledgeable.
The only thing you clearly said was that you didn't draw the conclusion from your record, but from your CLV. Here was your post -
"I didn't say that I don't have an edge because of my record, I said it because of my lack of line value. If I were beating the market, I wouldn't care if I was 60-100, I'd keep firing.
BG is just fine. There are very few forum posters, if any, that I'd rather invest in."
The n Sides: 61-68, -13.8 units, .2 clv.
*It's pretty clear I don't have an edge here. At all. My early season (before posting) results back this up as well. I will rarely be posting sides from here on out.hing you clearly said was that you didn't draw the conclusion from your record, but from your CLV. Here was your post -
"I didn't say that I don't have an edge because of my record, I said it because of my lack of line value. If I were beating the market, I wouldn't care if I was 60-100, I'd keep firing.
BG is just fine. There are very few forum posters, if any, that I'd rather invest in."
My original post on the topic:
sides: 61-68, -13.8 units, .2 clv.
*It's pretty clear I don't have an edge here. At all. My early season (before posting) results back this up as well. I will rarely be posting sides from here on out. :
1. The entire context I have is the 143 CBB plays he's posted here this season.
No, you have the context of all the CBB plays he's posted to other forums, and all the plays he posted in other sports.
Reading comprehension clearly isn't a strong suit for you, here was my initial post for your reference. I'll bold a few parts for you.
You're pretty clearly barking up the wrong tree if you think you're going to win a flame war of insults with me. I'll happily escrow 100k with Edward vs your 1k that I can place in the top vigintile of the reading comprehension test of your choice. You do have 1k, right? It should be ez moniez for you.
"buffett - with Dr. H. recently proclaiming in his thread that it's pretty evident he doesn't have an edge with sides, while sitting at 61-68, at what point do you feel you can conclude the same thing with your CBB plays? I'm unsure of your sides vs. totals record breakdowns, but curious to hear at what sample size you feel you have enough information to throw in the towel.
His sample size is much larger than 143 CBB plays. He didn't appear out of the blue on Bettingtalk this season; he's been around for years.
It's ironic one of the three 'knowledgeable' people you reference drew a conclusion from his own 129 game sample, which predicated this entire discussion.
LOL reading comprehension. I referred to people who've been posting on forums for 10+ years, namely, myself, Durito, and StevieY. We all interpreted your post the same way. I've never seen Dr. H on any other forum and he just joined here recently, and I know nothing about the dispute between him and the guy who posted that weird rant earlier in the thread claiming to be Jesus.
Typically classy reply. One would think if anyone were to 'freak out' over a simple question I ask, it would be the person I'm specifically questioning. Not the case here, as BG isn't insecure, and is capable of understanding my question and replying in an intelligent way.
Yeah, my first reply to you where I explained how you could perform a simple binomial distribution to test for the rarity of his record wasn't at all "classy" or "intelligent." :idoit:
buffett - do you plan to go the full way through March with your CBB? Any decisions yet on whether you'll have a pay site or some other means for MLB? Thanks!
That's what I am hoping, but I'm 100+ hours behind schedule for the MLB build, so nothing is certain.
If you need help catching up on the 100+ hours you are behind, doing data entry or whatever, contact one of the mods and ask for my email. I have some time to spare and it's the least I could do.
If you need help catching up on the 100+ hours you are behind, doing data entry or whatever, contact one of the mods and ask for my email. I have some time to spare and it's the least I could do.
Sam
Much appreciated, but what can been sourced out has been sourced out
That line is completely bewildering to me. I made the Rays much higher and certainly agree with them at that price. I almost feel like I'm missing something here, it just seems too obvious.
Dude, you could totally quote yourself while not giving yourself credit as doing the quoting or the original posting. Unless you had a time machine. In which case, as I tired to explain to my 8 yr old son the other day, you could only go forward unless you were not the inventor of the time machine. In which case you could only go as far back as to the original invention of said time machine. But it would be potential anti matter distributing, wormhole creating clusterfuck if you did quote yourself with the whole 'like matter occupying the same physical location of time and space' impossibility (so they say) and then you would be responsible for destroying not only the earth, but, and much more importantly, BT as well.
Apologizes for not being diligent with record updates of late. But there are quite a few errors with your record keeping. Correct breakdown as follows:
As of: 2-23: 70-73
2-23- 2-0
2-25: 0-2
2-26: 2-1
2-27: 2-1
2-28: 1-1
3-1: 5-4
3-2: 2-0
3-3: 0-2
3-4: 1-0
3-5: 1-2
3-6: 0-1
3-8: 4-5
3-9: 2-3
Hey buffet any update on your plans for this major-league baseball season?I know you said you're a lot hours behind in the update process. Just wondering if that was going well. And if there was a possibility of you being able to post the season. Thanks for all your hard work.
Comments
Inside were two decks of playing cards that were obviously at least a hundred years old and had scarcely been used, even if they didn’t still have the cellophane on them. The pattern on the backs was quite odd. On the first, the background was off-white, and a series of jagged lines, half of them powder blue, the other half dark crimson alternated in a completely haphazard pattern. The backs of the second deck were a light yellow background, and a green foreground depicting a prairie in Western Europe just as the sun went down. A vast fall of fir trees lined the near horizon, while an upside down v-fence ran alongside a pond. A farm boy holding a scythe was leaning against the fence staring at the setting sun.
She fanned out both decks of cards, and he was duly impressed at how handsome they were. She turned them over and he started to examine the fronts. Something about the design made it seem that they had been created completely by hand. She had been silent but started to speak after it became apparent that he was starting to lose his focus.
“These decks were a gift to Prince Charles III of Monaco on his twenty-second birthday from a nobleman in his father’s court. The insignia on the box is his family’s crest. Minimal wear despite a century of age.”
Benny couldn’t think of anything else to say. He was going to ask how much they were, but he knew he couldn’t afford them. If he had to guess, they were a healthy three-figure sum, and that was well out of his range. He figured that if he was quiet and pensive, she’d volunteer the price.
“Seventeen dollars,” she said.
“Do you take Carte Blanche?”
She gave him the long look. He paid here with three fives and two singles.
“Listen, what was…”
“Sh…if you’re patient, you’ll find the answer on your own,” she said.
He turned to leave. “This might be a ridiculous question, but would you like to have coffee with me sometime?”
She shook her head.
It was 9 o’clock, so he still had five hours to kill before the meeting with the Beard. He would double back to the car and put the cards in the trunk. Only seventeen dollars? What was the significance of that price? And why hadn’t she put the money into a register? The wall of the north face of the building was white stone. Someone had spray-painted the message, “Shepherdess no temptation poussin and teniers hold the key pax 681 by the cross and this horse of God I finish this guardian at midday blue apples.” He wrote down the message on a receipt in his back pocket and kept going.
He had wanted to be sober and alert for the meeting, but now he decided to find a bar. He headed west on Bourbon Street and stopped near the place with the loudest music coming out. He couldn’t read the writing on the sign, but there were two yellow bears dancing on it. Two girls in their early twenties were standing on the sidewalk, holding trays of shots of what looked like a very foul tasting blue liquid. One had long black hair and oozed passive hostility. The other was shorter, with shoulder length brown hair and soft green eyes.
Benny knew instinctively that a conversation with the black haired one would lead nowhere. Surprisingly, she spoke to him.
“I feel like getting in trouble tonight.”
“Yeah? Well, Trouble is my first name.”
“Do you play Dungeons and Dragons?”
That was easily the oddest non-sequitur he’d ever heard. “No, I’m more of a Magic the Gathering person.”
He was able to hide the sarcasm, but he was still lying. He had never played Magic.
“Really? It’s okay, but I’m more of a D+D gal. Anyway, I’m going to a party later, and a lot of cool people are going to be gaming there. You’re more than welcome to come with me. It’ll be super fun.”
Benny took a long moment to size her up. It was obviously some sort of trap, even though she didn’t know she was intentionally setting one. He was sure that he knew women like that perfectly, but he stopped to wonder if he had misread her. He saw her as being from a somewhat large family, maybe three or four children that her father had walked out on, either because he realized he didn’t have a job that could support them or because he couldn’t stand her mother, or some combination of the two.
Girls like that always discover sex at a very young age, so by the time she was a freshman in high school, she was probably already dating seniors, and sleeping with someone new every few weeks. That was about as long it would take for the boy to realize that there was nothing compelling about her other than being easy, and he would dump her. She would have developed a large sense of conceit because of all the positive male attention, and wound up with an extroverted type-a personality by the time she was in early adulthood.
People like this tend to be the smartest in their nuclear family, and they consequently mistake their slightly above average intellect with true genius. After high school, she couldn’t afford college, so she had started in the blue-collar world to “save up for college” only to wind up having two children with different guys by the time she turned twenty-one, neither of whom had any interest in supporting the children or seeing her again. To insulate herself from future heartache, she developed a jaded approach to dealing with men, in which she never displayed her true emotions, instead offering only sweet pleasantries to get what she wanted from them, or venom when they withheld it.
It took Benny less than three seconds to piece all of this together, and he was certain he was at least 90% accurate. He was relieved when customers came up to talk to the tall one, and he noticed the other one for the first time. She looked exactly like a girl he had gone to college with, an Italian from Western Massachusetts who he had always had a huge crush on that he had blown by acting a drunken idiot. She said her name was Jamie. She turned her head at a forty-five degree angle, but she was smiling the whole time and blushed frequently. Her teeth were flawless, and only an upper-middle class family could have afforded such an orthodontist.
She seemed shy, but not introverted, and warmed up to him as the conversation went on. Paying her way through UNO as a Kinesiology Major. He didn’t know what that was, but she explained it very enthusiastically. She had one of the most down to earth personalities of anyone he had met in a long time. The kind of person who laughs a great deal, but not because they’re simple minded and easily amused. After ten minutes, they had gotten into the whole, “What do your parents do? How many brothers and sisters do you have?” part of the conversation that all new couples go through early on.
Her father worked in a factory, her mother at a department store. Two brothers and a sister. Benny finessed all his answers on the same subject and was relieved when she didn’t press for details. She was starting to make eye contact with him. The tall girl was starting to stare daggers at them since Jaime hadn’t sold a shot the whole time they had been talking. A bouncer was staring at him suspiciously through the window. He made his move.
“Listen, I’m sorry to ask you this because I know you’re here to work and not get hit on, but opportunities like this don’t come along very often in my life. Could I buy you dinner sometime?”
She giggled and bit her lip. “Um…sure. Can you go upstairs and meet me there later? I feel too nervous about giving you my number in front of her.”
Benny complied instantaneously. The bar was very loud, but not too crowded, and surprisingly, half the customers were middle-aged. There was a wooden staircase along the back wall. As was often the case, the upstairs bar featured three bartenders waiting on two customers. The Dodgers were playing the Nationals in L.A., and the first inning was just ending. The bartender was another young woman in her early twenties, who was wearing a uniform that made her look like a dance instructor. Her attitude only got worse when Benny ordered “a bottle of whatever your cheapest beer is”. The furniture in the rest of the room had a lime green hue, and looked like it had been purchased at a Pier 1.
He had no idea when or even if she was going to come up. He figured there was at least a 60% chance she had just told him to go upstairs because she knew it would get him away from her for an hour. He started to think about the graffiti on the wall and decided he would have to ask the poet about it. There would have to be some way that he could frame it without the poet immediately dismissing the idea. Some barely tangible instinct told him that it had been a clue, but it was incredibly arcane and ambiguous. Plus, how could anyone have known that he was going to be on that block? The writing might have seemed like it was done recently, but there wasn’t any way for him to determine so for sure.
After half an hour of him going over these ideas in his head, he saw her coming up the wooden staircase. She scanned the room for ten seconds before her eyes locked on him. She flopped into the seat next to him and sighed very deeply, an overstated show of fatigue. She lit a cigarette, making sure to blow the smoke away from him, and smiled even though there was nothing to smile about. He looked at the pack and was surprised to notice that they were unfiltered Camels.
“What kind of music do you like, Benny?” she asked sweetly.
Music was a subject that he knew practically nothing about, so he lied and said that he was a huge Sinatra fan. His family didn’t allow him to own a radio when he was growing up, so the only music he had access to were his grandfather’s old Sinatra LPs.
Her only response was “Wow”. She was trying to think of a lengthier response, but couldn’t. They wound up talking for a half an hour, mostly about her childhood and family, and he walked away from the conversation feeling very disillusioned. Every thing about, every single aspect of her person was just slightly above average. She seemed completely straightforward, without a trace of enigma, drama, or sadness. Women like that usually marry beneath them, but wind up giving themselves over to the relationship completely, only to be heartbroken when the man doesn’t possess the same level of commitment.
Benny was fond of telling people that he could learn everything he needed to know about a person within five minutes of meeting them, and he was seldom wrong. There was nothing repellant about her, but most of her mental energy was probably spent wondering what TV show she was going to watch next. Her break ended and she wrote her number down for him. Benny drank two more beers and finished watching the Dodger game. He wound up leaving just before one after watching every highlight on the midnight Sportscenter.
He checked his watch and noted that he had 3180 seconds until his meeting with the Beard, but figured it was a certainty that he would arrive twenty minutes late. Tall mean girl was still standing vigil outside.
“Should I stop by around 4ish to drive you to the party?” he asked with complete sincerity. She didn’t say anything, and she didn’t even bother to show her disdain overtly, instead staring at the tap dancers half a block away and not acknowledging Benny’s question.
It was a short walk to the Blacksmith shop, and he figured there was a small chance Beard might show up early. He hadn’t
1. The entire context I have is the 143 CBB plays he's posted here this season.
2. I didn't question if he should throw in the towel, I asked at what point (sample) he would consider it.
Reading comprehension clearly isn't a strong suit for you, here was my initial post for your reference. I'll bold a few parts for you.
"buffett - with Dr. H. recently proclaiming in his thread that it's pretty evident he doesn't have an edge with sides, while sitting at 61-68, at what point do you feel you can conclude the same thing with your CBB plays? I'm unsure of your sides vs. totals record breakdowns, but curious to hear at what sample size you feel you have enough information to throw in the towel. At 143 games now going into today, do you feel close to that point?"
It's ironic one of the three 'knowledgeable' people you reference drew a conclusion from his own 129 game sample, which predicated this entire discussion.
Agreed that this conversation has gotten pointless and stupid, but please see baseRunner's post directly above yours where he agrees with me that I'm not necessarily wrong for saying it's improbable for a 54-56% capper to go 70-73 over 143.
It is almost exactly as improbable for him to go 70-73 as it is for him to go exactly 55% so again ridiculous.
My decision was must certainly not made on a 129 game sample, and I clearly stated that. For someone that likes to question the reading comprehension of others, you may want to look in the mirror.
Also, you, of all people, should not be putting scare quotes around the word knowledgeable.
Typically classy reply. One would think if anyone were to 'freak out' over a simple question I ask, it would be the person I'm specifically questioning. Not the case here, as BG isn't insecure, and is capable of understanding my question and replying in an intelligent way.
The only thing you clearly said was that you didn't draw the conclusion from your record, but from your CLV. Here was your post -
"I didn't say that I don't have an edge because of my record, I said it because of my lack of line value. If I were beating the market, I wouldn't care if I was 60-100, I'd keep firing.
BG is just fine. There are very few forum posters, if any, that I'd rather invest in."
My original post on the topic:
sides: 61-68, -13.8 units, .2 clv.
*It's pretty clear I don't have an edge here. At all. My early season (before posting) results back this up as well. I will rarely be posting sides from here on out. :
No, you have the context of all the CBB plays he's posted to other forums, and all the plays he posted in other sports.
You're pretty clearly barking up the wrong tree if you think you're going to win a flame war of insults with me. I'll happily escrow 100k with Edward vs your 1k that I can place in the top vigintile of the reading comprehension test of your choice. You do have 1k, right? It should be ez moniez for you.
His sample size is much larger than 143 CBB plays. He didn't appear out of the blue on Bettingtalk this season; he's been around for years.
LOL reading comprehension. I referred to people who've been posting on forums for 10+ years, namely, myself, Durito, and StevieY. We all interpreted your post the same way. I've never seen Dr. H on any other forum and he just joined here recently, and I know nothing about the dispute between him and the guy who posted that weird rant earlier in the thread claiming to be Jesus.
Yeah, my first reply to you where I explained how you could perform a simple binomial distribution to test for the rarity of his record wasn't at all "classy" or "intelligent." :idoit:
If you need help catching up on the 100+ hours you are behind, doing data entry or whatever, contact one of the mods and ask for my email. I have some time to spare and it's the least I could do.
Sam
Dude, you could totally quote yourself while not giving yourself credit as doing the quoting or the original posting. Unless you had a time machine. In which case, as I tired to explain to my 8 yr old son the other day, you could only go forward unless you were not the inventor of the time machine. In which case you could only go as far back as to the original invention of said time machine. But it would be potential anti matter distributing, wormhole creating clusterfuck if you did quote yourself with the whole 'like matter occupying the same physical location of time and space' impossibility (so they say) and then you would be responsible for destroying not only the earth, but, and much more importantly, BT as well.
That might be sweet for you two, but the cattle would suffer. Primarily those at the back of the pack.
Or not. Nice play.
through 2-23: 70-73
2-25: 0-2
2-26: 2-1
2-27: 2-1
2-28: 1-1
3-1: 4-5
3-2: 2-0
3-3: 0-2
3-4: 1-0
3-5: 1-2
3-6: 0-1
3-8: 4-5
3-9: 2-3
As of: 2-23: 70-73
2-23- 2-0
2-25: 0-2
2-26: 2-1
2-27: 2-1
2-28: 1-1
3-1: 5-4
3-2: 2-0
3-3: 0-2
3-4: 1-0
3-5: 1-2
3-6: 0-1
3-8: 4-5
3-9: 2-3
92-95 -12.8
Sorry about that. I see now that the 70-73 record was before Feb 23, not after. And, I must have made a mistake on one game on March 1.
Thanks for the correction BG.
Eddie