Got to ask you something,you always mention ,well maybe not always but you do mention sagarin and kenpom, i really like the other side of that uconn pk but line is right where it should be....looking at hou SOS they are at the bottom of the ocean , uconn though about 5 pts better if you look at sagarin , if i were to look at that alone ,and i think a lot of people do , they are making a big mistake taking uconn on that stat alone.
Do you look at those numbers to determine your picks , for some crazy reason i thought you would take them just by the way you talk about sagarin.
Got to ask you something,you always mention ,well maybe not always but you do mention sagarin and kenpom, i really like the other side of that uconn pk but line is right where it should be....looking at hou SOS they are at the bottom of the ocean , uconn though about 5 pts better if you look at sagarin , if i were to look at that alone ,and i think a lot of people do , they are making a big mistake taking uconn on that stat alone.
Do you look at those numbers to determine your picks , for some crazy reason i thought you would take them just by the way you talk about sagarin.
Good luck today
I do look at Sagarin's stuff at the start of the season as I'm setting my initial ratings (along with a bunch of other sources), but don't think I've checked his hoops ratings since early November. However I'm constantly using some of Pomeroy's stuff. For college football, I'll look at Sagarin a lot to get an idea of what certain lines would be (as I don't do any handicapping/power ratings myself, and just follow others).
Edit - I just checked Sagarin and he's got UConn about -1.3 today, taking his home court into account.
Ok thank you , but know one should be using his home court , every home court is worth 3.36 , thats not even close , and knowing you need to be very close to the posted lines , that 1 or 2 pts is going to make those using them a loser , i think in the long run. Hout is 5-0 ats at home so id make their home court a little bit more his.
Ok thank you , but know one should be using his home court , every home court is worth 3.36 , thats not even close , and knowing you need to be very close to the posted lines , that 1 or 2 pts is going to make those using them a loser , i think in the long run. Hout is 5-0 ats at home so id make their home court a little bit more his.
You really think being 5-0 ATS makes their home court stronger? They have played one decent team at home, they covered because it went to OT(LSU, and LSU wasn't playing very well at the time).
First , everyone's home court is different , am still using a combo of last year , 5-5 ats at home and this year.
StevieY , whats your home court for Houston ? if Sagarin is 3.36 mine is about a point more.
I do look at Sagarin's stuff at the start of the season as I'm setting my initial ratings (along with a bunch of other sources), but don't think I've checked his hoops ratings since early November. However I'm constantly using some of Pomeroy's stuff. For college football, I'll look at Sagarin a lot to get an idea of what certain lines would be (as I don't do any handicapping/power ratings myself, and just follow others).
Edit - I just checked Sagarin and he's got UConn about -1.3 today, taking his home court into account.
Tommy I'm curious about what you use from Pomeroy as I don't think his fanmatch link (daily projections) are sharp versus the market.
Most of the time if the line moves away from his number on a game it's sharper then if his number is showing value versus the line. It's a guideline to look at but as far as using it to beat the line, I've tracked it over the course of the last 3 years to see, it's a losing proposition.
I see guys all over the net using his predictions as their picks and none of them (the guys posting picks are profitable). You can tell because each pick falls in line with what his fanmatch projection says. Handicap the handicapper as they say.
Not saying that you do that. Just curious how you are using his info.
First , everyone's home court is different , am still using a combo of last year , 5-5 ats at home and this year.
StevieY , whats your home court for Houston ? if Sagarin is 3.36 mine is about a point more.
I only change my home court for the extremes and there are individual situations(well one big one) that make a teams home court worth more(I consider it more of a "road court disadvantage"). 99% of the people who try to customize home court for every team make them worse than if they take one figure for all. I also use more than home/road/neutral designations for my games so my avg true home court is slightly different.
I dont like one single home court, to me doesnt work, maybe i cant figure it right, I must be doing something right with my home court because my lines are basically right on ....do you know how he comes up with that 3.36?
i took col getting +1.5 my home court for them was even bigger then hou ,line dropped to pk , i thought even though org has beaten top 50 clubs and col hasnt they werent giving col enough advantage for being home OR Org disadvantage on the road ats ...i had cold as a 1 pt fav
I dont like one single home court, to me doesnt work, maybe i cant figure it right, I must be doing something right with my home court because my lines are basically right on ....do you know how he comes up with that 3.36?
I'm assuming he used regression software or something similar. I don't know for sure.
Most of the time if the line moves away from his number on a game it's sharper then if his number is showing value versus the line. It's a guideline to look at but as far as using it to beat the line, I've tracked it over the course of the last 3 years to see, it's a losing proposition.
I see guys all over the net using his predictions as their picks and none of them (the guys posting picks are profitable). You can tell because each pick falls in line with what his fanmatch projection says. Handicap the handicapper as they say.
Not saying that you do that. Just curious how you are using his info.
More than anything, I like the way he presents a lot of his data. When I zero in on a game, I can often "see" more using his site than using my own data (as least from a presentation standpoint, I haven't found anything better than Ken's site). I also like using his site to look at scheduling situations (another spot where his presentation is really good I think). Don't pay attention much to the picks themselves since even Ken himself will tell you that there are a lot of flaws (injuries/suspensions, new players being added into the mix, recent form, etc).
Plus, I'm a huge fan of Ken's blog. He does lots of great work (and also seems like a good guy thru my interactions with him).
Just think how hard it was to play at the rack back in the day ....home dog over 20 pts , i dont know , rutgers has lost 5 games in a row by over 20 pts and in those games they havent played anyone as good as iowa..Rutgers one of the youngest teams in college, this could get ugly ,got to find out what teams do after losing 5 in a row by more then 20 and at home getting 20 or more.
Good luck
It's a terrible spot for Iowa, they figure to sleepwalk through most of the game, but as much as I wanted to, I just couldn't pull the trigger on Rutgers. GL guy's, hopefully they get the money tonight.
As for Rutgers, they're obviously pretty bad, but as I've mentioned before, I don't think they're quite as bad as they're playing. And 22.5 is a crap load of points at home against an Iowa team that's probably taking this about as seriously as a pickup game.
I've never actually been to the RAC, but I'm heading up there for the PSU game next month.
I did. Not often that heading to upstate NY means getting away from the snow, but it did in this instance. Unfortunately, I returned home to 18 inches of snow, and along with it a son with an strep throat and a daughter with an ear infection. Hasn't been the most fun of weeks in the TommyL household, but the snow is clear and the kids are almost healthy so we're getting there.
520 Florida State -3.5 Clemson
535 Virginia +6 Louisville
551 Delaware +10 Towson
559 Bradley +11 Drake
566 Miami (Oh) +6 Northern Illinois 1.5 UNITS
580 San Diego E Loyola Marymount 2 UNITS
584 Central Michigan -8.5 Bowling Green
591 Stanford +11.5 Utah
615 Old Dominion -3.5 Florida International
658 Utah State -5 Nevada
676 Quinnipiac -3 Niagara
690 SE Missouri State +4.5 Austin Peay
698 Wofford -5 Western Carolina
705 Belmont -3 Tennessee Tech
Comments
865 Connecticut E Houston
880 Colorado +1.5 Oregon
881 Oregon State +9 Utah
883 VMI +10 UNC Greensboro
893 American +15 Army
Do you look at those numbers to determine your picks , for some crazy reason i thought you would take them just by the way you talk about sagarin.
Good luck today
I do look at Sagarin's stuff at the start of the season as I'm setting my initial ratings (along with a bunch of other sources), but don't think I've checked his hoops ratings since early November. However I'm constantly using some of Pomeroy's stuff. For college football, I'll look at Sagarin a lot to get an idea of what certain lines would be (as I don't do any handicapping/power ratings myself, and just follow others).
Edit - I just checked Sagarin and he's got UConn about -1.3 today, taking his home court into account.
You really think being 5-0 ATS makes their home court stronger? They have played one decent team at home, they covered because it went to OT(LSU, and LSU wasn't playing very well at the time).
StevieY , whats your home court for Houston ? if Sagarin is 3.36 mine is about a point more.
Tommy I'm curious about what you use from Pomeroy as I don't think his fanmatch link (daily projections) are sharp versus the market.
http://kenpom.com/fanmatch.php
Most of the time if the line moves away from his number on a game it's sharper then if his number is showing value versus the line. It's a guideline to look at but as far as using it to beat the line, I've tracked it over the course of the last 3 years to see, it's a losing proposition.
I see guys all over the net using his predictions as their picks and none of them (the guys posting picks are profitable). You can tell because each pick falls in line with what his fanmatch projection says. Handicap the handicapper as they say.
Not saying that you do that. Just curious how you are using his info.
I only change my home court for the extremes and there are individual situations(well one big one) that make a teams home court worth more(I consider it more of a "road court disadvantage"). 99% of the people who try to customize home court for every team make them worse than if they take one figure for all. I also use more than home/road/neutral designations for my games so my avg true home court is slightly different.
I'm assuming he used regression software or something similar. I don't know for sure.
More than anything, I like the way he presents a lot of his data. When I zero in on a game, I can often "see" more using his site than using my own data (as least from a presentation standpoint, I haven't found anything better than Ken's site). I also like using his site to look at scheduling situations (another spot where his presentation is really good I think). Don't pay attention much to the picks themselves since even Ken himself will tell you that there are a lot of flaws (injuries/suspensions, new players being added into the mix, recent form, etc).
Plus, I'm a huge fan of Ken's blog. He does lots of great work (and also seems like a good guy thru my interactions with him).
538 Monmouth -7.5 Siena
542 NC Central -1 Hampton 1.5 UNITS
717 Western Michigan +6 Ohio
743 Central Michigan +3 Northern Illinois
530 Notre Dame -12.5 Virginia Tech
561 Vanderbilt -2.5 Tennessee 1.5 UNITS
576 UC Santa Barbara -1.5 Long Beach State
718 Rutgers +22.5 Iowa
723 Delaware +15 UNC Wilmington
734 UL Monroe -6 Troy
763 Cal Poly -4 CS Northridge
778 Morehead State -5.5 Tennessee Tech
781 Rider +8 Siena
784 VMI +6.5 Samford
800 Northern Arizona E North Dakota 1.5 UNITS
Good luck
luck
I've never actually been to the RAC, but I'm heading up there for the PSU game next month.
luck
Hope you're heading away from the blizzard.
Unweighted: 148-162-7 (-29.4 units) Avg CLV: +.20
Non-WA, 2nd halfs, and Futures: 3-6 (-3.6 units)
Overall Weighted Units: -33
720 UConn -2 Cincinnati
740 Illinois-Chicago +3.5 Youngstown State
744 Southern Illinois +1.5 Evansville
782 Arizona -7 Oregon
786 Wofford -2 East Tennessee State
799 Belmont -9 Jacksonville State
805 Northern Arizona +20.5 Weber State 1.5 UNITS
809 SE Missouri State +8.5 SIU Edwardsville
I did. Not often that heading to upstate NY means getting away from the snow, but it did in this instance. Unfortunately, I returned home to 18 inches of snow, and along with it a son with an strep throat and a daughter with an ear infection. Hasn't been the most fun of weeks in the TommyL household, but the snow is clear and the kids are almost healthy so we're getting there.
876 Harvard -11 Cornell
520 Florida State -3.5 Clemson
535 Virginia +6 Louisville
551 Delaware +10 Towson
559 Bradley +11 Drake
566 Miami (Oh) +6 Northern Illinois 1.5 UNITS
580 San Diego E Loyola Marymount 2 UNITS
584 Central Michigan -8.5 Bowling Green
591 Stanford +11.5 Utah
615 Old Dominion -3.5 Florida International
658 Utah State -5 Nevada
676 Quinnipiac -3 Niagara
690 SE Missouri State +4.5 Austin Peay
698 Wofford -5 Western Carolina
705 Belmont -3 Tennessee Tech