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  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    ONVO is up another 12+% this am. currently trading @ 5.30 area, at this point it has broken into new recent highs looking like it's on its way to possibly test its all time high of 10.90 from last June. Looks like steady accumulation at this point with current longs holding their positions. Volume on this run higher is much stronger than back in the summer the last time it popped to the 10 handle so there is much stronger conviction with this move higher (a very positive sign) showing much more serious buyers rather than speculation. I will be adding to my position here, I was looking to see a pull back last week to add but at this point it is gaining momentum and having broken the 5 handle any institutions that wanted to buy can start if it holds above the key 5 number. There are no options yet trading on this so the only way of getting into it is through actual share purchase. OPK is holding steady and continues to consolidate at the 6 handle, so this could be getting ready to resume its uptrend as well once it has taken its breather. The market overall continues to show its resiliency to this point, however, as I noted last week sitting just below key psychological levels (1500 S&P) and (14000 Dow), also XLF (financials ETF) sitting just under 17.50. I will be setting up the bear spreads I mentioned last week most likely this week with March 28th expirations.
    GL
  • minger2123minger2123 Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    Reb, once again thanks. I am long and strong on ONVO at a cost of $2.68 a share. Closed today at $5.91!! Volume was 5 times the normal. For those of you who have missed the boat on this, I would suggest you swim out to the boat now and jump in. Thanks again Reb!
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    minger2123 wrote: »
    Reb, once again thanks. I am long and strong on ONVO at a cost of $2.68 a share. Closed today at $5.91!! Volume was 5 times the normal. For those of you who have missed the boat on this, I would suggest you swim out to the boat now and jump in. Thanks again Reb!

    Wow has this thing been all over the map this morning opened with a drop down to the 4 area back up to 5 area currently, on the daily charts has put in what is termed an "outside" day where it has a higher high than previous day and a lower low than the previous day as well. This has been a volatile stock to say the least the past few days and today's action initially looked like a violent reversal from the opening high. There was no news either on the run up yesterday or the sell off today so looks as though there are quite a few traders taking advantage of the swings. Volume again is very heavy with over 5.8 mill. shares traded so far but most of that took place in the first two hours of the session. Should be interesting to see where it settles out both today and at the end of friday. OPK continues to grind up into new recent highs on a smoother pace as it holds and confirms the "cup and handle" breakout. The indices continue to close in on the levels mentioned previously, the bear spread I have on my screen is buying the Mar28 '13 149 Puts and selling the Mar28 '13 142 Puts which allows for a 7pt. pullback on the SPYDERS. The reason I'm going out to the end of Mar. is from past experience trying to time a market correction is probably one of the trickiest plays as the majority starts to look for one. So we could hang up around the key psychological area with a range for a bit and the Feb expirations will evaporate in premium fairly quickly so Mar. gives you a lot more leeway. These strategies are not for the faint of heart and should be monitored by most if you do not have the experience of having used them previously. Again, this is for example purposes of what I am currently doing and I do not advocate the option strategies unless you fully understand the risks involved. Goes in the same context of not betting more than what you can afford to lose so to speak.

    With reference to Minger's swimming out to the boat and jumping in, as I stated earlier in the thread, this is a highly speculative stock and should be invested as such. I like ONVO and a long term holder but I am more confident on the OPK stock as a more immediate sustainable play, obviously again that is my opinion fwiw. GL today
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    TheReb wrote: »
    AAPL currently @ 485 area, long term trendline at 470, a breach of this would open up downside target of 380 area to fill a gap left on monthly charts at the end of 2011, point of this is for anyone that was looking at opening a position in apple you may want to wait a bit. One interesting aspect of apple's sell off is that the rest of the market has been holding up rather well to this point, interestingly you could make the argument that the money coming out is actually being rotated into other areas such as the financials and biotechs. Could you imagine the impact of any significant rotation out of bonds into equities, when that happens you will see one of the greatest moves in stocks in history IMO. Apple has been a place where money has been parked as "a safe haven" just like the bond market, in other words, it's been viewed as a place to put the cash while the uncertainty of fiscal cliff, deficits, and politics played itself out as the world goes through its deleveraging phase. Obviously the timing of when this happens is anybody's guess but it sure is something to be watching out for to get in at the early onset.

    Has breached this trendline in after market session after their earning announcement, the weekly close is more important and how it gets met when trading opens in the am. but this 10% move down will be painful for a lot of different longs (IRA's, Mutual Funds, 401k's, etc) also the recent buyers that went long may bail also. My guess is at this point this could be a catalyst for the correction that a lot have been waiting for. Very possible for this to target the gap mentioned at 380 now. So would still wait if anyone was thinking of opening a position IMO.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    I put in a limit order for 1000 shares of ONVO for $4.55 and that's where it closed so I'm in Reb I know you like this long term. I'm just hanging out with you. Lets make a little money and I'll need to buy you dinner.
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    Old-Timer wrote: »
    I put in a limit order for 1000 shares of ONVO for $4.55 and that's where it closed so I'm in Reb I know you like this long term. I'm just hanging out with you. Lets make a little money and I'll need to buy you dinner.

    It's hard to grasp the concept of "printing" cells, it still makes me think of some kind of sci fi movie...but they are currently already doing it so who knows how far it will go. The market could be in for some ride tomorrow with this selloff in aapl so some things may get sold involuntarily on those that are margined tightly...that's when the shopping list comes out for the ones that I have been keeping an eye on to watch if they hit levels where I feel there is value. OT, you should catch one of the Rebs games with me sometime, I usually rotate my seats with my good clients etc., but I'm sure I could squeeze you into one or at the very least you should make one of the games at the spot where we go to see them play on the road. Might need to take some dramamine with ONVO but the risk reward could be great for a dime.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    Thanks for the offer and would love to see the Rebs up close. As long as I'm free and there's no business clients that night that would be great. Thanks again for the generous offer.
  • eug44eug44 Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    Guys, let me give you my two cents (I work in the finance world). I briefly looked at ONVO, this stock and all stocks that are similar are extremely volatile and 99.8% of the time are not a good investment. I know reading about the company sounds exciting that they are going to be printing cells, tissues, etc. in reality they loss a $1.5 a share and have 47 million shares outstanding, that’s a lot of fuckin money to be burning through. It may be justifiable because they are working with breakthrough technology but I am not an expert enough to know if this technology is in demand, its client pricing structure and future growth. If you are investing on a fundamental basis the stock is shit, if you are looking at it from a technical prospective it should be dropping to about $2 a share not going to $9 and staying there. Majority of the stock is held by insiders (which more than likely means no one wants to buy it), none of the research firm initiated coverage in this stock which is fairly uncommon and should raise red flags. There are better gambles out there and this isn’t something anyone outside of the firms insider should invest in. I am sorry if this sounds harsh but I’ve lost plenty of money chasing long shots and stocks similar to this one and better, if you have a long position get rid of it!
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    eug44 wrote: »
    Guys, let me give you my two cents (I work in the finance world). I briefly looked at ONVO, this stock and all stocks that are similar are extremely volatile and 99.8% of the time are not a good investment. I know reading about the company sounds exciting that they are going to be printing cells, tissues, etc. in reality they loss a $1.5 a share and have 47 million shares outstanding, that’s a lot of fuckin money to be burning through. It may be justifiable because they are working with breakthrough technology but I am not an expert enough to know if this technology is in demand, its client pricing structure and future growth. If you are investing on a fundamental basis the stock is shit, if you are looking at it from a technical prospective it should be dropping to about $2 a share not going to $9 and staying there. Majority of the stock is held by insiders (which more than likely means no one wants to buy it), none of the research firm initiated coverage in this stock which is fairly uncommon and should raise red flags. There are better gambles out there and this isn’t something anyone outside of the firms insider should invest in. I am sorry if this sounds harsh but I’ve lost plenty of money chasing long shots and stocks similar to this one and better, if you have a long position get rid of it!

    Eug, I sincerely appreciate the input. The reason I even looked at this company/stock is because my son pointed it out to me and he has a pretty good track record with me. I know this is going to sound like just a proud dad but this young man was one of those "gifted" kids (no doubt from his mother) and is currently in his third year of med school. He has a passion for the medical field (specifically oncology/research) and as strange as it may sound is not in it for the money. He got me into DNDN @ $2 when people were very skeptical of them getting the first immunotherapy for cancer approved. Needless to say that was nothing short of a wild ride up into the $60 area. That was just one example, there are a handful of others. Usually I limit myself to no more than 4k shares but more often than not 2k is the norm. I go into these with my eyes wide open and the understanding that taking a full loss is possible. That is specifically why I highlighted the very speculative nature of investing in this particular company (please see posts throughout the thread alluding to such). Again, I appreciate the constructive criticism of the investment as I know you're just looking out. Just a note regarding bioprinting human tissue. Coincidentally, my son is doing his surgical rotation right now and this past week he was under probably one of the top plastic surgeons in the country. They discussed this very subject with regards to skin grafting and how great the potential is for their technology...just sayin ;-)
  • eug44eug44 Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    Reb, no problem, if you ever need to run anything by me – feel free to ask. The problem with companies like this (early on) they are almost forced to bleed money, as you can imagine the start up cost of something like this is extremely high and typically they have a negative EPS. It just becomes such a long shot, when I invest I am done taking long shots and I have more gamble then most. It’s an awesome story about your son (I can’t even imagine how proud you must feel!) They have to start making money at some point and a lot of money based on the # of outstanding stock. One more piece of advice (I didn’t read the whole thread so you might have mentioned this already) the stock is very volatile so if you are going to play the options you should implement a “straddle.” Don’t just buy naked calls or puts.
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    Just an FYI, currently there are no options available on this. Also, depending on the biotech and the science behind it some are tied in with various universities or foundations and get funding through grants, licensing fees, etc. The Gates Foundation has been very active with certain biotechs with some decent size grants. But the point you make about the cash burn rate is one to definitely watch out for. Thanks again.
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    Old-Timer wrote: »
    Thanks for the offer and would love to see the Rebs up close. As long as I'm free and there's no business clients that night that would be great. Thanks again for the generous offer.

    OT, if you're up for the game tonight you're good to go, get my email from one of the mods or admin or whoever can give that out and shoot me an email to coordinate meeting at the T&M (game starts at 6:15p will get there around 6p), if can't make it let me know as soon as possible. Thanks -R
  • BetThemDogsBetThemDogs Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    Reb-- what do you think about tonight's game? If Wyoming can play like they did vs SDSU, and make it a half court game-- it could get interesting. No bet on it for me, but I'll be in front of the TV.
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    Reb-- what do you think about tonight's game? If Wyoming can play like they did vs SDSU, and make it a half court game-- it could get interesting. No bet on it for me, but I'll be in front of the TV.

    BTD, that could be the understatement of the year the way this team has performed as of late. I lined it 7 fwiw so it looks too rich for me but if Rebs can dictate the tempo then I could see them winning by dd. They couldn't do it against AF so still wary that they can against the pokes. There has been some talk/rumor from sources that I know that Marshall was told by Freddie Banks if he wanted any shot to get looked at for the next level he needed to look to score more on his own. Obviously it has been noticeable on several possessions that in the half court they have struggled with minimal passing/movement going on so who knows. I'm losing confidence in Rice as each game goes on, the two road games they lost to NM and Col St. were well within their grasp and I blame the losses on Rice. He used his last timeouts way too early in close road games and IMO he needs to get a grip on Bryce DJ as his turnovers and selfish play is killing the team. Rice is looking more and more like a great recruiter but way underachieving with the talent he is around him. I've still yet to see them press on any consistent basis so my guess would be expect WYO to dictate pace unless they've had some enlightenment over the last 5 days. The fan base is getting a bit restless, they were forgiving to a point but it's starting to get old. Savon Goodman has little to no minutes the last 3-4 games and I believe he would have brought a different energy to the team in those road games. Anyway bet your sorry you asked lol.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    TheReb wrote: »
    OT, if you're up for the game tonight you're good to go, get my email from one of the mods or admin or whoever can give that out and shoot me an email to coordinate meeting at the T&M (game starts at 6:15p will get there around 6p), if can't make it let me know as soon as possible. Thanks -R

    Would love to but guess who just left my house the Sears water heater guy. Last night at 7:10pm my wife was leaving for work comes back and say's your not to like this the garage was flooded. I got home around 3:00PM so it happen between 3-7pm $89 Non-refundable charge just to come out and tell me yes you need another water heater it's no good. It's only 3 years old so the tank is free but the labor is a joke and you don't get the $89 back and all he does is call in the model # serial # and tells me the installation guy will call by 7:00PM and if I don't hear from them by 7:00om he gave me a number to call. Now I have to hope they can get me in tomorrow the last time I waited 5 days. I told them I had scoll children that needed to shower they didn't give a shit I'll never forget my wife and I talking cold showers to go to work.
    That's why there's a good chance they're going out of business.

    Thanks Reb but another time. Enjoy the game.
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    Old-Timer wrote: »
    Would love to but guess who just left my house the Sears water heater guy. Last night at 7:10pm my wife was leaving for work comes back and say's your not to like this the garage was flooded. I got home around 3:00PM so it happen between 3-7pm $89 Non-refundable charge just to come out and tell me yes you need another water heater it's no good. It's only 3 years old so the tank is free but the labor is a joke and you don't get the $89 back and all he does is call in the model # serial # and tells me the installation guy will call by 7:00PM and if I don't hear from them by 7:00om he gave me a number to call. Now I have to hope they can get me in tomorrow the last time I waited 5 days. I told them I had scoll children that needed to shower they didn't give a shit I'll never forget my wife and I talking cold showers to go to work.
    That's why there's a good chance they're going out of business.

    Thanks Reb but another time. Enjoy the game.

    No worries, hope you get the water heater situation squared away...the water out here is shit, causes almost a cement sludge that kills the water heaters...one of the drawbacks living here in the desert ;-)
  • BetThemDogsBetThemDogs Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    Reb-- glad to hear some insight from someone who attends the games, and is more in touch with the goings on than I am anymore.

    Enjoy the 1 point Rebel win.
  • BetThemDogsBetThemDogs Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    TheReb wrote: »
    No worries, hope you get the water heater situation squared away...the water out here is shit, causes almost a cement sludge that kills the water heaters...one of the drawbacks living here in the desert ;-)

    Not a drawback-- an advantage. Scrape all the crud from the old water heater-- grind it up-- grab your gold pan and get to work-- you'll probably come up with 1/3 oz. of gold.
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    Market Monday, steady as she goes S&P has taken on the 1500 handle the last couple of trading sessions, bonds have continued to be weak as the reallocation continues to trickle into equities...I say trickle because you will know when it takes on any meaningful exit by seeing rates really start to spike. Friday brings the jobs report for the month of Jan. and the feds meet in the first FOMC meeting, also as I mentioned previously, Feb. brings in some steady supply of treasuries to be auctioned off. These events culminating around the same time could be a perfect storm brewing so I would imagine this friday could possibly be the start of a very pivotal moment in the markets. I say pivotal because if rates break into higher territory (if you see the 10yr. treasury break meaningfully above 2%) it could be katie bar the door moment and the trickle could turn into a full fledged dam break or the numbers could be muted and all of the recent moves could have been just mere noise and rates will settle back with a pullback in equities, thus the pivot. OPK continues to make new multi-year highs (all time high was 19 ironically back on Feb. 1, 2000 exactly 12yrs ago friday), while short interest has come down it still remained over 17% as of 1/15 so there is still a lot of "fuel in the tank" as those shorts continue to feel the squeeze pressure. The options I mentioned back in thread @ .40 are now at the .90 area so if you picked any up it's a nice 100+% gain, expiration is not until Jun so still quite a ways away. ONVO seems to have found a nice consolidation area in the mid 4's so worth keeping an eye on to see if it can hold here and build any new area of support to work from. One big mover today that I have a relatively small position in is KERX, their phase 3 trials were successful for a drug therapy tied to renal/kidney failure and dialysis needs, they will be submitting for FDA approval which it looks like they should receive based on the trials. AAPL looks to be taking a breather in the 450 area after it's recent decline, technically it looks like a respite more than anything else. Have a great week everyone! -R
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    TheReb wrote: »
    No worries, hope you get the water heater situation squared away...the water out here is shit, causes almost a cement sludge that kills the water heaters...one of the drawbacks living here in the desert ;-)

    I'm here 11 years and this is the 3rd one. I didn't know about changing that Anode Rod even in the desert it could last 10 years if you change the rod every two. I think it's a $30/$40 part

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=97ett_HNu4k

    Ok Back to the Market
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    The Fifth Dimension, most of you won't know or remember this group "The Fifth Dimension" which performed "Up Up and Away" back in the late '60's but it is definitely appropriate for OPK, today up again another .50 breaking the 7 handle. So far from the 4.65 area when first posted. Yesterday the CEO was on Cramer and the interview was received well, here's link to the video http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000144067 basically he discusses recent acquisition and other products in the pipeline. Overall, market rather muted this am. looks like biding time until thurs/fri. for the jobs numbers. KERX that I mentioned yesterday is up another 35% this morning as well. GL today
  • BetThemDogsBetThemDogs Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    Hey Reb-- I assume you were at the game last night-- what's your feelings about the Rebels going forward-- especially interested in your thoughts about Rice's in-game decisions at this point of season-- interesting blog--

    http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/blog/eye-on-college-basketball/21623293/unlv-has-great-bigs-but-might-actually-be-better-playing-small

    thanks
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    Hey Reb-- I assume you were at the game last night-- what's your feelings about the Rebels going forward-- especially interested in your thoughts about Rice's in-game decisions at this point of season-- interesting blog--

    http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/blog/eye-on-college-basketball/21623293/unlv-has-great-bigs-but-might-actually-be-better-playing-small

    thanks

    Morning BTD, will answer this in my CBB hoops thread as want to keep this one on subject but boy am I frustrated with this team. Thanks -R
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    The following article http://seekingalpha.com/article/1143541-the-investment-rate-warns-of-a-major-market-turn-down?source=yahoo offers a take on where the market is currently relative to the last two times it has hit these highs, thought it put some interesting perspective relative to those prior the downturns it took shortly thereafter making those highs. His point about the demographics is similar to what Japan has been going through the last decade or so, the point about the lessening effect from spending and stimulus should also be something that should be on everyone's radar. I don't know that I 100% agree on everything he points out as far as going forward but it is something to keep in the back of your investment/trading mind, that is, to always be cognizant of what could lie around the corner and not to get too complacent. That is why I entered the bear spread trade that I mentioned on the SPY last friday with the March expirations. Should something jar the market from its recent climb and perch into the 1500 area, at least I will have a position to take advantage of it and cover any portfolio loss that goes along with it. It is always prudent to be diverse and balanced when investing in the market, diverse in industry and balanced in a bullish bearish approach to the overall market. The balance can be deemed in percentage terms with a bias to either as just like in betting on sports, money management or "protecting your bankroll" is the primary key to being successful in the markets. Rates have broken momentarily above the 2% resistance level on the 10yr. treasury which bears watching, I've noticed it start to transpire with mortgage rates. The housing rebound has been a big part of keeping the economy from falling apart, any significant rise in rates would dismantle quite a bit of what has been holding the market up, a slow rise isn't necessarily a bad thing but a sudden sharp one would be cause for concern IMO so keeping an eye on the benchmark 10yr. would be something I would recommend going forward.
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    Article on ONVO that mentions a collaborative agreement which has nice upside with limited risk: http://seekingalpha.com/article/1143421-organovo-s-new-partnership-offers-large-upside-with-limited-risk?source=yahoo it essentially continues to validate their technology and potential continued revenue streams while getting funding without repayment/financing costs or stock dilution.
  • CoopsCoops Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    Reb - It may be me being a Bear, but I think we correct real soon. I bought some SPY 150 Puts that expire Friday. Got them at 40 cents today, purely gamble but I think we miss on employment friday and we have a big down day.
  • eug44eug44 Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    Coops, I think that's a really good trade; I may buy a 148 put and a 152 call --- whatever the result is on friday the market is going to move. when is your put expiring, this Friday?
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    Coops wrote: »
    Reb - It may be me being a Bear, but I think we correct real soon. I bought some SPY 150 Puts that expire Friday. Got them at 40 cents today, purely gamble but I think we miss on employment friday and we have a big down day.

    Coops, I agree (see post #145) that this move may be getting a little long in the tooth without having had any meaningful pullback or correction. The problem is it could last awhile to get the last of the bears to cave in, which would correlate with a final push up...seen it too many times. I know it's .40 and you say purely gamble but if that's the case why not wait until Thurs. to purchase and let the time premium evaporate to pretty much nil. Kind of along the same lines when you thought that there would be a catalyst with the deficit discussions last month those .40 add up just like paying the vig on multiple bets (see how many units negative I am with being within striking distance of a fifty percent record in CBB, sucks but it really illustrates the difference between say 50% and 55-56% if you know what I mean.) Of course, when it happens and you hit the home run it's nice but to pinpoint it with a weekly expiration the day of the news is like you say truly a gamble...I just think there is more risk of -EV over time trying to time those, again just my opinion fwiw :-) GL in any case
  • CoopsCoops Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    eug44 wrote: »
    Coops, I think that's a really good trade; I may buy a 148 put and a 152 call --- whatever the result is on friday the market is going to move. when is your put expiring, this Friday?

    Friday expiry. I probably buy puts 80% of the time and calls 20% of the time. Being so in the market for a living I seem to be always pessimistic. Are u in NYC also Eug?
  • CoopsCoops Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    TheReb wrote: »
    Coops, I agree (see post #145) that this move may be getting a little long in the tooth without having had any meaningful pullback or correction. The problem is it could last awhile to get the last of the bears to cave in, which would correlate with a final push up...seen it too many times. I know it's .40 and you say purely gamble but if that's the case why not wait until Thurs. to purchase and let the time premium evaporate to pretty much nil. Kind of along the same lines when you thought that there would be a catalyst with the deficit discussions last month those .40 add up just like paying the vig on multiple bets (see how many units negative I am with being within striking distance of a fifty percent record in CBB, sucks but it really illustrates the difference between say 50% and 55-56% if you know what I mean.) Of course, when it happens and you hit the home run it's nice but to pinpoint it with a weekly expiration the day of the news is like you say truly a gamble...I just think there is more risk of -EV over time trying to time those, again just my opinion fwiw :-) GL in any case

    I bought today because I wanted to get in before Fed annoucement. Popped to 53 cents right after it and now sitting around 47 cents. Will probably get out if I see 50 cents again buy again tomorrow. I just think this jobs number is going to suck.
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