Betting Talk

Stock Market thread

1246745

Comments

  • minger2123minger2123 Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    Thanks Guys! I am going with Scottrade. Checked out their site and found out I know somebody over there. Thanks for all the input. Love this thread. GO ONVO!
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    TheReb wrote: »
    Quick update on OPK & ONVO, both trading up nicely again today, news for OPK http://www.foxbusiness.com/news/2013/01/14/opko-expands-technology-collaboration-with-bristol-myers/ I did finish purchasing the 40 contracts of JUN 6 calls @ avg .41, right at the top of the "handle" chart looks very constructive at this juncture. ONVO has been a great trading vehicle as it has had some pretty wide swings with an upward bias.

    W2W, nice trade on RIMM up strong again today which leads me to follow up on Coops, Coops not sure if you pulled the trigger on AAPL but the bounce a couple of weeks ago is looking like it was more of an oversold bounce/short covering, I stated if you were thinking of initiating the position you spoke about you may want to see if it retraces to the 500 area. I'm inclined to believe that a breach of this area could lead to further downside, so as I mentioned if you are still looking to get long, you may want to sell the puts in the mid to low 4's as picking it up there would be a lot better than here and if the 500 holds as support you can make a few on the premium you collect. GL

    AAPL currently @ 485 area, long term trendline at 470, a breach of this would open up downside target of 380 area to fill a gap left on monthly charts at the end of 2011, point of this is for anyone that was looking at opening a position in apple you may want to wait a bit. One interesting aspect of apple's sell off is that the rest of the market has been holding up rather well to this point, interestingly you could make the argument that the money coming out is actually being rotated into other areas such as the financials and biotechs. Could you imagine the impact of any significant rotation out of bonds into equities, when that happens you will see one of the greatest moves in stocks in history IMO. Apple has been a place where money has been parked as "a safe haven" just like the bond market, in other words, it's been viewed as a place to put the cash while the uncertainty of fiscal cliff, deficits, and politics played itself out as the world goes through its deleveraging phase. Obviously the timing of when this happens is anybody's guess but it sure is something to be watching out for to get in at the early onset.
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    Coops wrote: »

    Newsmax media? Looks like an advertisement for Wiedermer's book/video, seriously, eventually the bears are right when big corrections hit, the problem has always been trying to time a correction or bear market which leads to the famous saying "the market can stay irrational longer than one can stay solvent", we are nowhere near the market being fully invested like it was back in the mid 2000's where everyone was talking about the market and their gains and the gains in the real estate market back then. Now what he infers about the fed and all the paper they have printed is another matter and yes it will find its way to various assets but that could be a period of years and the market will move with inflation as it happens, which goes back to the point of the asset allocation from bonds to equities...you would want to short interest rates and go long hard assets, I'm in that camp currently as I believe it has already started. Bought an investment property in Feb. of last year and am getting ready to close on its sale in two weeks bought @ 90k, selling price 137k, have two others in the pipeline. Will it continue for much longer? Who knows, but you need to be taking advantage of it while it's here.
  • tommyesq73tommyesq73 Junior Member
    edited January 2013
    I think Scottrade is one of the cheaper...but im with Schwab. it all depends on what your looking for.
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    Old-Timer wrote: »
    Thanks for the information I picked up 1000 Shares at 4.91 an like this stocks potential. I think tomorrow's opening will tell us more. I'm really speaking about me not you. I would like to see this stock open tomorrow higher and stay higher then today's close regardless of the of how much then I think at that point we could be alright? Am I making sense. Your Arod and I'm joe the ball boy when it comes to this.

    OT, this is what I was talking about last week with the weekly close, this week it (OPK) is making it's breach of the upper portion of the "handle" with new 52 week high today breaking the 6 level, short interest has dropped to just under 18% of float so the "squeeze" is still in play as well. Nice grind higher should continue, may even see a pop/gap higher here as well at some point. Looking good in the neighborhood :)
  • CoopsCoops Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    TheReb wrote: »
    OT, this is what I was talking about last week with the weekly close, this week it (OPK) is making it's breach of the upper portion of the "handle" with new 52 week high today breaking the 6 level, short interest has dropped to just under 18% of float so the "squeeze" is still in play as well. Nice grind higher should continue, may even see a pop/gap higher here as well at some point. Looking good in the neighborhood :)

    Pised I missed the boat on this! Being a perma bear has its drawbacks. Your next reco Reb, Im in.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    TheReb wrote: »
    OT, this is what I was talking about last week with the weekly close, this week it (OPK) is making it's breach of the upper portion of the "handle" with new 52 week high today breaking the 6 level, short interest has dropped to just under 18% of float so the "squeeze" is still in play as well. Nice grind higher should continue, may even see a pop/gap higher here as well at some point. Looking good in the neighborhood :)

    Yes and I do appreciate your help. I usually look for a two day downward trend to sell am I looking at that right. Don't get wrong I'm not looking to sell just picking your brain as to what you look for when you feel a stock is going south. Thanks again your right on the mark.
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    Old-Timer wrote: »
    Yes and I do appreciate your help. I usually look for a two day downward trend to sell am I looking at that right. Don't get wrong I'm not looking to sell just picking your brain as to what you look for when you feel a stock is going south. Thanks again your right on the mark.

    Looking and reasons to sell could be two separate issues, obviously needing to sell (liquidate) is more personal on an individual basis, as far as reasons I would say they vary but would include a "broken" stock where the buying has exhausted (usually considered "everyone is in") where you will see what is called a "blow off top", at the tail end a spike up makes a new high and closes poorly. On charts this is called a key reversal where it makes a higher high than previously and then closes below the previous session. But in a case such as OPK the breakout of the handle pattern actually should represent a breaking of a former resistance area which takes time to develop. Therefore, right now it is poised to test its previous all time highs in the future (19.00) but needs to meet first objective of 7.00 area where there is a lot of consolidation from previous move many years ago. The book I mentioned earlier by Murphy is great at illustrating various reversal patterns both for tops and bottoms and a great topic in there is the pennant and flag formations. You can think of those as consolidation patterns within a larger trend or move. Seriously OT if you have the time you should get that book and start comparing the concepts with what you see. It is very well written and easy to follow and the technical concepts are time proven over the years. It's a great guide to have with illustrations/examples, promise it will be pennies well spent in the scheme of things.
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    Coops wrote: »
    Pised I missed the boat on this! Being a perma bear has its drawbacks. Your next reco Reb, Im in.

    Couple of quick thoughts Coops, I would not say you missed the boat, two ways to look at it at this juncture: some traders look for a confirmation of a breakout before entering the fray which I believe is happening today. I would look at it more like we took a calculated risk early that it would get to this point, I may actually add to position with a solid close and follow through tomorrow. Otherwise, as they say "the bus comes by every twenty minutes" and like missing a "good number" in sports there is always the next days card so to speak. Either way whatever you're most comfortable with works, a note on AAPL today, retraced to the breakdown area in the low 500's still not convinced the downside move is over yet but with the news of the VP of retail resigning and a pop on that news could be a positive sign, would have to close and hold and see what the weekly chart looks like after friday's close.
  • golfguru1golfguru1 Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    This is an awesome thread, thanks for all the info Reb, I sold Rimm yesterday after buying at 11.45 what is your thoughts on it, buy?
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    beware of the wash rule
  • CoopsCoops Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    TheReb wrote: »
    Couple of quick thoughts Coops, I would not say you missed the boat, two ways to look at it at this juncture: some traders look for a confirmation of a breakout before entering the fray which I believe is happening today. I would look at it more like we took a calculated risk early that it would get to this point, I may actually add to position with a solid close and follow through tomorrow. Otherwise, as they say "the bus comes by every twenty minutes" and like missing a "good number" in sports there is always the next days card so to speak. Either way whatever you're most comfortable with works, a note on AAPL today, retraced to the breakdown area in the low 500's still not convinced the downside move is over yet but with the news of the VP of retail resigning and a pop on that news could be a positive sign, would have to close and hold and see what the weekly chart looks like after friday's close.

    So for OPK, u would buy more @ what number?
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    Ok, so here we are and the equity indexes are really showing resilience, in fact the allocation from bonds to equities seems to be taking hold as I mentioned earlier. S&P is making highs we have not seen since before the crisis, question you have to ask yourself is, is it warranted? Well I believe it is continuing to scale the "wall of worry" related to all the issues that everyone has been tentative to enter the market about. Everything seems to be clicking right now as far as the sectors, financials have been really starting to gain positive momentum, transports are putting in new highs (necessary if you're a dow theorist), the market is moving higher as the "safe haven" treasuries and apple see money moving out into higher risk areas. Of course one should not be without prudent steps to protect profits but at the same time allow the opportunity to gain from the massive re allocation of assets from fixed income to equities and other hard assets that stand to gain if inflation starts to rear its ugly head.

    Follow up on ONVO: this is almost up 100% since we (Dubbs & I) mentioned it, also OPK continues to hold its gains and consolidate right at the highs (a nice sign) so in answer to your question Coops, you can take either approach, that is originate a position here if your thinking long term, or wait until early next week and see if it continues to hold the breakout or has any pullback for your entry. The risk always is in a case where wait for the pullback is that it does not occur and the next thing you know your sorry you didn't pull the trigger as the price moves away from you. The options for JUN 6 strike were at .40 cents when I mentioned them, they are now bid at .75 with an ask of .80, again if you're longer term in your approach I would just buy the shares outright here as I believe at 6 it is still relatively cheap for what it's potential is with its pipeline of products, and the man at the helm of the ship.

    Golf, to be honest I have not followed RIMM for some time, there is a trade strategy that some partake in called a "paired trade", what that entails is taking a position in two companies that are in the same industry where you are bullish on one and bearish on the other for fundamental and technical reasons. So the case could be made that the bear market in RIMM is over and the bull market in AAPL is over but IMO that has already had a huge move...(in other words the surge in RIMM shares for the longs and the drop from the highs in AAPL for the shorts) whether we are in the middle of that move or not remains to be seen, obviously there were both technical reasons - oversold on RIMM and way overbought on AAPL as well as fundamental the overhaul of RIMMS mgmt. and the new smartphones they have come/coming to market. along with the I-5 sales not keeping up with the high valuation of AAPL. At this point, I can't honestly tell you how I think it's going to play out, my hunch is that AAPL has not finished with its selloff/correction and the gap around 380 still needs to filled on long term charts, whether that coincides with a continued climb in RIMM remains to be seen.

    Underwraps thanks for the reminder on the wash rule....that could lead to continued buying from those that sold out last year and are now wanting to get back in if they liked what they had and fear being left behind the train ride.

    BTD, I will keep an eye on those Aussie energy plays, I will let you know if/once I open any positions on them...are any in the Bakken formation?

    Make it a great day all !! -R
  • DubbsDubbs Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    Good stuff Reb!

    "BTD, I will keep an eye on those Aussie energy plays, I will let you know if/once I open any positions on them...are any in the Bakken formation?"

    A couple other positions I have in the Oil and Gas industry are MHR and KOG. It may be a little late for KOG as the talks of a buyout are on the horizon, although those have been rumors for a while? I've followed MHR since I've found they scooped up a bunch of land in the Eagle Ford Shale here in south Texas. You can get in on MHR for a decent rate, around $4.00. They seem to have a lot of upside as well.
  • BetThemDogsBetThemDogs Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    I agree with Dubbs that KOG will get bought out soon. However, it has already moved a lot in the last year. As a pure Bakken play you might check out TPLM.
    My favorite Aussie play is Sundance- SDCJF. They recently sold a chunk of their Bakken assets for a huge profit-- leaves them sitting on a lot of cash.

    http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/AMDA-WAFII/2259016723x0x595603/8f673b57-72f4-4f45-8a53-ea3ac86919df/595603.pdf

    They still have Bakken assets, and are drilling cheap vertical wells in Wyoming. Their main focus is on their 100% owned Mississippian horizontal properties in Okla. (Mississippian seems to be the next huge shale play after the Bakken and the Eagle Ford) Great little company.

    http://www.sundanceenergy.com.au/
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    I agree with Dubbs that KOG will get bought out soon. However, it has already moved a lot in the last year. As a pure Bakken play you might check out TPLM.
    My favorite Aussie play is Sundance- SDCJF. They recently sold a chunk of their Bakken assets for a huge profit-- leaves them sitting on a lot of cash.

    http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/AMDA-WAFII/2259016723x0x595603/8f673b57-72f4-4f45-8a53-ea3ac86919df/595603.pdf

    They still have Bakken assets, and are drilling cheap vertical wells in Wyoming. Their main focus is on their 100% owned Mississippian horizontal properties in Okla. (Mississippian seems to be the next huge shale play after the Bakken and the Eagle Ford) Great little company.

    http://www.sundanceenergy.com.au/

    Thanks for the info BTD, great game last night for the Rebs btw, you should try to make it next time if you can
  • BetThemDogsBetThemDogs Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    "Thanks for the info BTD, great game last night for the Rebs btw, you should try to make it next time if you can "

    I'm afraid next game Rebel fans are due to be disappointed-- Sat @ CSU.
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    "Thanks for the info BTD, great game last night for the Rebs btw, you should try to make it next time if you can "

    I'm afraid next game Rebel fans are due to be disappointed-- Sat @ CSU.

    Unfortunately I'm inclined to agree with ya, should be interesting to see where they line it, right now I have it close to pk but Rams so tough at home it's hard to say how much weight they'll give the home court, leaning closer to 5 for it (HCA) IMO.
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    Quick note on market this a.m., options expiration today could cause some volatility, the market is nearing some heavy resistance from long ago ('07) highs, while I expect those to be taken out before the end of april, we could see a decent pullback of 15% or so to set the stage for the next run. I will be opening some put spreads on the Spiders (SPY) probably within the next (trading) day or two but will look for key reversal for confirmation first. Currently they are at the 148 area (corresponding with 1480 S&P), wouldn't be surprised to see a grind or pop to the psychological 150 number (1500 S&P) for them before the pullback. So this is where I'm keeping my radar at for opening the positions for both portfolio protection and possible gains on the decline. The small caps like OPK and ONVO have been strong and the Russell index has been making some new highs which overall has been pulling the rest of the market. I sold my MS calls this morning (been holding them a long long time lol) they were expiring today so the positive earnings news they came out with gave them a nice pop. I like the financials right now longer term but they have also had a decent run and could be ready for some profit taking as well. I will look at their relative strength on any pullback and if is looking good compared to the rest of the market will re open new positions as they are the group that when they lead you'll have a healthy market once again so bears (no pun intended) watching. One thing to watch, current housing market believe it or not has a mini bubble going on, what I mean by that is I know in certain areas (those hit the hardest such as vegas, certain areas of Cal. and AZ. and Fla.) have seen some pretty significant price increases from a year ago. Most believe it is due to the inventory control that the banks in some cases were forced to do due to the legal proceedings regarding these states implemented to slow down the foreclosure onslaught. There are still quite a few homeowners under water so the thought process is that eventually these will come to market. If things free up for the banks to unload them, it would put a correction in this mini bubble but I believe that would be the last "wash out" from the original crisis and the markets would finally be able to return to what I would consider normal. Obviously these are just my thoughts and opinions so take them fwiw, we'll see how things play out. Have a great one today! -R
  • BetThemDogsBetThemDogs Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    TheReb wrote: »
    Unfortunately I'm inclined to agree with ya, should be interesting to see where they line it, right now I have it close to pk but Rams so tough at home it's hard to say how much weight they'll give the home court, leaning closer to 5 for it (HCA) IMO.

    CSU -3.5. Didn't think it'd come quite that high. And I give CSU 7 points for home court.
  • golfguru1golfguru1 Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    Thanks Reb for the response, and everyone else, great info!
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    CSU -3.5. Didn't think it'd come quite that high. And I give CSU 7 points for home court.

    That is about two points higher than I would have made it, tempting to take the points but I think the better spot is the Aztecs in Laramie with the short number. Will be back at the Born & Raised spot tomorrow if you want to join us to watch the game, I believe FootballPix will be there and I'll probably have about 6 others (great group, lot of fun) that usually come as well.
  • BetThemDogsBetThemDogs Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    TheReb wrote: »
    That is about two points higher than I would have made it, tempting to take the points but I think the better spot is the Aztecs in Laramie with the short number. Will be back at the Born & Raised spot tomorrow if you want to join us to watch the game, I believe FootballPix will be there and I'll probably have about 6 others (great group, lot of fun) that usually come as well.

    I'll have to pass, as that's a 200 mile drive for me (one way)-- I agree on SDSU. No bet for me on the Rebel game-- I'll just help you root them in.
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    I'll have to pass, as that's a 200 mile drive for me (one way)-- I agree on SDSU. No bet for me on the Rebel game-- I'll just help you root them in.

    Tonopah? Don't blame ya, hate that drive (even worse having to go another 3+ hrs. to Reno) but when moving the kids stuff back and forth to school no other choice. Done it way too many times if you know what I mean. Go Aztecs! (today)
  • BetThemDogsBetThemDogs Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    TheReb wrote: »
    Tonopah? Don't blame ya, hate that drive (even worse having to go another 3+ hrs. to Reno) but when moving the kids stuff back and forth to school no other choice. Done it way too many times if you know what I mean. Go Aztecs! (today)

    Actually Goldfield. "back and forth to school". They don't go to UNR do they? If so, we're taking away your avatar.
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    Actually Goldfield. "back and forth to school". They don't go to UNR do they? If so, we're taking away your avatar.
    LOL! Been in Vegas and Reb fan since '87 so told the boys sorry no can do Wolfpack when they play the Rebs, but they actually had no choice as that's where the med school is and UNLV got the law school. Older one is currently doing his surgical rotation at UMC and is off today so one of his "classmates" who went to UNLV undergrad and him will be there with me today. The best part is when they sit in my seats at the Reb games and everyone around us knows they (his brother and him) go to UNR, lot of fun. When you mentioned 200 miles I thought of Goldfield as a possibility but every time I pass through there AT 20 MILES/HR I've yet to see a soul walking around, I do see the signs for some festival every year though so guess there are a few, now I know how you have the time to focus on capping as there isn't much to distract you up there from what I can tell. Come to think of it, you're not the one sitting there with the radar gun are you :)
  • BetThemDogsBetThemDogs Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    Reb-- next time on your way through-- check out our little radio station on 89.1

    also simulcasting on the web at www.kgfn.org

    If you need food or coffee, the Dinky Diner serves pretty good grub. Right at the curve.

    I'll tell our homeless guy to start walking up and down the main drag.
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    Reb-- next time on your way through-- check out our little radio station on 89.1

    also simulcasting on the web at www.kgfn.org

    If you need food or coffee, the Dinky Diner serves pretty good grub. Right at the curve.

    I'll tell our homeless guy to start walking up and down the main drag.

    That's classic! could be also because we're usually passing through around midnight or thereabouts, but on the way back to Vegas it's much earlier. Rebs game was tough nut to swallow, had the lead and momentum and then it happened....he put Jones in and I told everyone we were fucked...critical turnover and a score the other way, he had 5 of them...Rice did the same thing he did in the New Mexico game and left himself with no time outs in a close game at the end. I know he's young but it doesn't seem like he's learning from his mistakes and I can't for the life of me understand why he is not using Savon Goodman (whom I fear will look to transfer if he doesn't start getting any minutes) as Goodman can rebound, play D, and he's got that Philly toughness. As far as the Aztecs, WTF Thames didn't play, he was listed as questionable with a sore back but not sure how much the outcome would have changed had he been in there. Franklin and the rest of the team couldn't throw the ball in the ocean in the first half. From the looks of things it was a tough day in general around the board. On to Sunday -R
Sign In or Register to comment.