Week 1 in NFL Survivor Pools is never easy, and 2013 proved to be no different.
The two most popular picks in the opening week—the Colts (our selection) and Patriots—needed fourth-quarter comebacks just to escape with victories as double-digit favorites. Meanwhile, the next two most popular selections, the Buccaneers and Steelers, both lost on the road as favorites.
Now, let’s move on to Week 2.
First, though, a disclaimer: Survivor pools are wildly random, and upsets happen all the time in the NFL. The following is merely an attempt to most optimally plan for survivor pools, NOT a foolproof strategy. Remember, even if picking heavy favorites each week, there’s still roughly a 60 percent chance you’ll be out of it by Week 5.
Using the power ratings provided by the Linemakers (and tweaking the Eagles’ still ridiculously low rating up a bit) to produce generic point spreads for the entire season, below we’ve plotted out every team that will be favored by 7 or more the rest of the way. The Week 1 results, and subsequent changes in power ratings, changed our course quite a bit, most notably because teams like the Chiefs and Eagles can now be used more confidently.
Originally we had the Patriots over the Jets as our selection this week, but that has changed to the Eagles over the Chargers.
The goal of all this, obviously, is to have a fairly heavy favorite every week (ideally at least a touchdown favorite, which we have in 16 of 17 weeks). The week-by-week list below does just that.
A few notes:
- The bolded games are the selections for each particular week.
- In weeks where more than one game is bolded, both teams are an option, but the one with the asterisk (*) is the most optimal.
- Notice that we saved some of the worst teams on the list (Dolphins, Panthers, etc.) for the final few weeks. If you’re still alive by then, you won’t have the greatest teams to choose from, but at least those teams are projected to be sizable favorites.
- Curious as to who we went against the most? The Jets (4 times), Browns (3), Raiders (2) and Chargers (2) all make multiple appearances. If any of those teams are much better than expected, this strategy likely goes down the tubes.
Teams already used: Colts.
WEEK 1 (4)
Broncos -7.5 vs. Ravens
Patriots -11 at Bills
Steelers -7 vs. Titans
Colts -10 vs. Raiders (WIN)
(Lions -6 vs. Vikings)
(49ers -5 vs. Packers)
WEEK 2 (4)
Patriots -11.5 vs. Jets
Eagles -7.5 vs. Chargers (CHANGE)
Texans -9 vs. Titans
Packers -7.5 vs. Redskins
(Ravens -6.5 vs. Browns)
(Falcons -6.5 vs. Rams)
(Bears -6 vs. Vikings)
(Raiders -5.5 vs. Jaguars)
WEEK 3 (5)
Broncos -16 vs. Raiders
Seahawks -16.5 vs. Jaguars
Saints -9 vs. Cardinals
Patriots -9 vs. Buccaneers
49ers -9.5 vs. Colts
(Eagles -5 vs. Chiefs)
WEEK 4 (2)
Broncos -9 vs. Eagles
Saints -9 vs. Dolphins (CHANGE)
(Ravens -5.5 at Bills)
(49ers -5 at Rams)
(Titans -6.5 vs. Jets)
WEEK 5 (3)
Rams -9.5 vs. Jaguars
Packers -9.5 vs. Lions
Falcons -14.5 vs. Jets (CHANGE)
(49ers -5.5 vs. Texans)
(Browns -5 vs. Bills)
(Seahawks -5 at Colts)
WEEK 6 (5)
Chiefs -9 vs. Raiders
Texans -8.5 vs. Rams (CHANGE)
Broncos -18.5 vs. Jaguars
Seahawks -13 vs. Titans
49ers -13 vs. Cardinals
(Bengals -6.5 at Bills)
WEEK 7 (6)
Seahawks -7.5 at Cardinals
Falcons -11 vs. Buccaneers
Dolphins -7.5 vs. Bills
Patriots -9 at Jets
Packers -13 vs. Browns (CHANGE)
Giants -8.5 vs. Vikings
(Broncos -5.5 at Colts)
(49ers -6.5 at Titans)
WEEK 8 (7)
Saints -13.5 vs. Bills
49ers -11.5 at Jaguars
Patriots -10 vs. Dolphins
Bengals -13 vs. Jets
Broncos -10.5 vs. Redskins
Chiefs -7.5 vs. Browns (CHANGE)
(Packers -5.5 at Vikings)
(Seahawks -5.5 at Rams)
(Falcons -5.5 at Cardinals)
WEEK 9 (5)
Seahawks -13 vs. Buccaneers
Saints -8 at Jets
Texans -8 vs. Colts
Packers -7.5 vs. Bears
Patriots -8 vs. Steelers
(Cowboys -6 vs. Vikings)
(Redskins -6 vs. Chargers)
WEEK 10 (7)
Packers -7.5 vs. Eagles
Steelers -9.5 vs. Bills
Giants -11.5 vs. Raiders (CHANGE)
49ers -9 vs. Panthers
Broncos -7.5 at Chargers
Titans -8 vs. Jaguars
Saints -7 vs. Cowboys
WEEK 11 (4)
Texans -12.5 vs. Raiders
Bengals -10.5 vs. Browns
Broncos -10 vs. Chiefs (CHANGE)
Seahawks -12.5 vs. Vikings
WEEK 12 (3)
Texans -15 vs. Jaguars
Ravens -12 vs. Jets
Packers -11.5 vs. Vikings
(Chiefs -6.5 vs. Chargers)
(Lions -5.5 vs. Buccaneers)
WEEK 13 (5)
Cowboys -9 vs. Raiders
49ers -11 vs. Rams (CHANGE)
Eagles -8 vs. Cardinals
Falcons -8 at Bills
Browns -7 vs. Jaguars
(Panthers -6.5 vs. Buccaneers)
(Colts -5 vs. Titans)
(Ravens -5 vs. Steelers)
(Seahawks -5.5 vs. Saints)
WEEK 14 (6)
Texans -9 at Jaguars
Patriots -12.5 vs. Browns (CHANGE)
Ravens -8 vs. Vikings
Saints -7 vs. Panthers
Broncos -13.5 vs. Titans
Bengals -7.5 vs. Colts
(Steelers -5 vs. Dolphins)
(Buccaneers -6 vs. Bills)
WEEK 15 (3)
Broncos -13.5 vs. Chargers
Panthers -10 vs. Jets
Falcons -8 vs. Redskins
(49ers -6.5 at Buccaneers)
WEEK 16 (3)
Bengals -9 vs. Vikings
Seahawks -13.5 vs. Cardinals
Packers -8.5 vs. Steelers
(Chargers -5.5 vs. Raiders)
WEEK 17 (9)
Falcons -7.5 vs. Panthers
Dolphins -8 vs. Jets
Patriots -14.5 vs. Bills
Steelers -7.5 vs. Browns
Colts -10 vs. Jaguars
Saints -10.5 vs. Buccaneers
Seahawks -11.5 vs. Rams
Broncos -10 at Raiders
49ers -7 at Cardinals
(Giants -6 vs. Redskins)
***
Note: One factor that we don’t take into account is the popularity of each pick. Ideally, you can select a team that isn’t that popular, so the odds of both A) advancing, and B) your opponents NOT advancing, are maximized each week.