It never hurts to plan ahead.
Even if it’s in something as haphazard as NFL Survivor Pools. Last year we had some mild success with our NFL Survivor Strategy Guide, and now, we’re back with the 2013 version.
First, though, a disclaimer: Survivor pools are wildly random, and upsets in the NFL happen all the time. The following is merely an attempt to most optimally plan for survivor pools, NOT a foolproof strategy. Remember, even if picking heavy favorites each week, there’s still roughly a 60 percent chance you’ll be out of it by Week 5.
Using the power ratings provided by our friends at National Football Post to produce generic point spreads for the entire season (standard 3 points for home-field advantage), here’s a list of the amount of times each team will be favored by 7 or more points:
Broncos: 10
Seahawks: 8
49ers: 7
Falcons: 7
Packers: 6
Texans: 6
Patriots: 5
Saints: 5
Steelers: 4
Bengals: 3
Giants: 3
Ravens: 3
Colts: 2
Dolphins: 2
Chiefs: 1
Cowboys: 1
Rams: 1
Redskins: 1
When you tweak that down to 5 points or more, here’s how it looks:
Broncos: 11
49ers: 11
Seahawks: 10
Packers: 8
Falcons: 8
Steelers: 8
Texans: 7
Patriots: 7
Saints: 7
Cowboys: 4
Giants: 3
Bengals: 3
Ravens: 3
Redskins: 3
Colts: 3
Chiefs: 3
Titans: 3
Lions: 2
Dolphins: 2
Buccaneers: 2
Bears: 1
Rams: 1
Panthers: 1
Eagles: 1
Chargers: 1
The goal is to have a fairly heavy favorite every week (ideally at least a touchdown favorite, which we have in 16 of 17 weeks). The week-by-week list below does just that.
A few notes:
- The bolded games are the selections for each particular week.
- In weeks where more than one game is bolded, both teams are an option, but the one with the asterisk (*) is the most optimal.
- Notice that we saved some of the worst teams on the list (Dolphins, Panthers, etc.) for the final few weeks. If you’re still alive by then, you won’t have the greatest teams to choose from, but at least those teams are projected to be healthy favorites.
- Curious as to who we went against the most? The Jets (4 times), Raiders (3) and Jaguars (2) all make multiple appearances. If any of those teams are much better than expected, this strategy likely goes down the tubes.
WEEK 1 (4)
Broncos -7.5 vs. Ravens
Patriots -11 at Bills
Steelers -7 vs. Titans
Colts -10 vs. Raiders
(Lions -6 vs. Vikings)
(49ers -5 vs. Packers)
WEEK 2 (5)
Patriots -12.5 vs. Jets
Falcons -9.5 vs. Rams
Ravens -8.5 vs. Browns
Texans -10.5 vs. Titans
Packers -7.5 vs. Redskins
(Bears -5.5 vs. Vikings)
WEEK 3 (5)
Broncos -17 vs. Raiders
Seahawks -15.5 vs. Jaguars
Saints -10.5 vs. Cardinals
Patriots -9.5 vs. Buccaneers
49ers -10 vs. Colts
(Steelers -6 vs. Bears)
(Cowboys -5 vs. Rams)
WEEK 4 (2)
Broncos -13 vs. Eagles
Saints -7 vs. Dolphins
(49ers -5.5 at Rams)
(Buccaneers -5.5 vs. Cardinals)
(Titans -5.5 vs. Jets)
WEEK 5 (4)
Rams -7.5 vs. Jaguars
Packers -9 vs. Lions
Giants -7.5 vs. Eagles
Falcons -13.5 vs. Jets
(49ers -5.5 vs. Texans)
WEEK 6 (5)
Chiefs -8.5 vs. Raiders
Texans -9 vs. Rams
Broncos -16.5 vs. Jaguars
Seahawks -12.5 vs. Titans
49ers -15 vs. Cardinals
(Steelers -5 at Jets)
WEEK 7 (6)
Seahawks -8.5 at Cardinals
Falcons -10.5 vs. Buccaneers
Dolphins -7 vs. Bills
49ers -7 at Titans
Packers -13 vs. Browns
Giants -8 vs. Vikings
(Patriots -6.5 at Jets)
WEEK 8 (6)
Saints -11 vs. Bills
49ers -10 at Jaguars
Patriots -8.5 vs. Dolphins
Bengals -10 vs. Jets
Broncos -9.5 vs. Redskins
Falcons -7 at Cardinals
(Chiefs -6.5 vs. Browns)
(Packers -5.5 at Vikings)
(Seahawks -5 at Rams)
WEEK 9 (4)
Redskins -7 vs. Chargers
Seahawks -12 vs. Buccaneers
Texans -7.5 vs. Colts
Packers -9 vs. Bears
(Saints -5 at Jets)
WEEK 10 (5)
Packers -11 vs. Eagles*
Steelers -11 vs. Bills
Giants -11.5 vs. Raiders
49ers -12 vs. Panthers
Broncos -7.5 at Chargers
(Titans -6 vs. Jaguars)
(Texans -6.5 at Cardinals)
(Saints -5 vs. Cowboys)
WEEK 11 (4)
Texans -14 vs. Raiders
Bengals -9 vs. Browns
Broncos -11.5 vs. Chiefs
Seahawks -12.5 vs. Vikings
(Steelers -6 vs. Lions)
WEEK 12 (3)
Texans -13.5 vs. Jaguars
Ravens -9.5 vs. Jets
Packers -11.5 vs. Vikings
(Falcons -5.5 vs. Saints)
(Chiefs -5 vs. Chargers)
(Lions -5 vs. Buccaneers)
WEEK 13 (3)
Cowboys -10 vs. Raiders
49ers -11.5 vs. Rams
Falcons -7.5 at Bills
(Broncos -5.5 at Chiefs)
(Colts -6 vs. Titans)
(Eagles -5.5 vs. Cardinals)
WEEK 14 (6)
Texans -7.5 at Jaguars
Patriots -11.5 vs. Browns
Ravens -7 vs. Vikings
Steelers -7 vs. Dolphins
Saints -7.5 vs. Panthers
Broncos -13.5 vs. Titans
(Buccaneers -6 vs. Bills)
(Redskins -5 vs. Chiefs)
WEEK 15 (2)
Broncos -13.5 vs. Chargers
Falcons -7 vs. Redskins
(49ers -6.5 at Buccaneers)
(Titans -5 vs. Cardinals)
(Panthers -6.5 vs. Jets)
WEEK 16 (2)
Bengals -7.5 vs. Vikings
Seahawks -14.5 vs. Cardinals
(Packers -6 vs. Steelers)
(Chargers -6.5 vs. Raiders)
(49ers -5 vs. Falcons)
WEEK 17 (9)
Falcons -10 vs. Panthers
Dolphins -7 vs. Jets
Patriots -12.5 vs. Bills
Steelers -10 vs. Browns
Colts -9 vs. Jaguars
Saints -8 vs. Buccaneers
Seahawks -11 vs. Rams
Broncos -11 at Raiders
49ers -9 at Cardinals
(Cowboys -6 vs. Eagles)
***
Note: One factor that we don’t take into account is the popularity of each pick. Ideally, you can select a team that isn’t that popular, so the odds of both A) advancing, and B) your opponents NOT advancing, are maximized each week.