Mid-term Elections
Ronbets
Senior Member
Voting is Tuesday Nov. 6th. Plenty of opportunities to win some wagers. It's apparent the Democrats will win the House and the GOP will win the Senate. When handicapping, disregard the biased polls from Fox, CNN or other major media outlets. Fox's obsessive Hannity is pitching a "tight race" for the NJ Senate. Yeah ok Sean?? Menendez with all his baggage is still a prohibitive favorite.
Comments
Sean is just hoping that NJ race is close..
also took a 6 teamer leaving up one spot with Nelson, Hawley, Cruz, Manchin, and Brown..hoping to fill with Nascar next week..
R U in Pittsburg Ks?
I think you can disregard all polls if you can think back to a couple years ago...................
Reminds me of the time when the late Tony of 5D chewed me out on the phone because I put a bet against Judge Roy Moore shortly following the news that he was accused of inappropriate contact with underage girls.
1. CNN and Fox News are among the best pollsters. FiveThirtyEight systematically rates them and gives them very high ratings. CNN is an "A-" and Fox is an "A". They adjust CNN by 1% because it has overly favored Republicans historically. They don't adjust Fox at all as historically they are equally likely to miss in either direction.
2. I think Menendez in NJ is a good play at -400 or better. Every poll has him in the lead and the undecided will hold their noses and vote for him.
3. BM has -225 for the Dems to take the house, which I think is valuable at -450 or better.
4. Rosedale in MT at +430 I think also had value, but it was bet down to +200. Still think it has a little value. The 3rd party candidate was included in polling but has now dropped out and thrown his weight to Rosedale. Predictit has it at 70/30 for Tester now.
I made a bunch on that race too. Dont remember if limits were $50 or $100, but I ended up with 4 figures in play. Id hit it, price would fall, Id hit it again, someone else would push it back up, rinse and repeat. Someone must have lost a bundle because Moore $ kept pushing the line back to where it started every time I went back and played it.
2/3rd's of Montana has already voted when Tester had a huge polling lead. Trump's late push there is too late. I need Tester.
I am in Phoenix..that Nelson race is tricky saw it moved again today.
I wouldn't broadcast that, no way tony would have let you do that. agree its very coorelated.
Nelson going to shaft me...
Cool guy with enthusiasm that requires a drug test. Check out this f-bomb he made last night on national tv.
https://variety.com/2018/politics/news/beto-orourke-drops-f-bomb-on-live-tv-during-concession-speech-1203021779/
Getting Senate results in NV was like pulling teeth. The Secretary of Elections gave out some lame excuse for the delay. They were just disorganized. First partial returns looked like a Heller landslide. He was ready for a victory speech. lol. Oops wrong score.
I saw the last vote was only cast at 9:51 local time..sure rural votes were in when the closed hence the lead for Heller..met the guy at the Vegas race in March, seemed to not like my interview questions, which I didn't think were over the top.
Still think FL Senate is Scott's unless boxes of ballots were "misplaced" like in the Franken race years back..
The first excuse the NV Election site used for the delay was the overwhelming crowds at closing time. Their 'honorable' remark was that nobody in line would be denied to vote. The Republicans were gathered at the South Point Casino waiting and waiting and drinking, etc. Fake results for about one half hour.
Very interesting state here..Kyl very moderate more like McCain than Trump..and very popular. Speculation is Gov names McSally as Kyl's replacement since he said he wasn't serving past January. No one else to really name in the state minus a relative unknown.
Arizona is not about mysterious votes. They have early voting and dont open the ballots until Election Day to check signatures.
Lawsuits have long been a part of the electoral process, we have a decentralized election system but a Federal law that trumps state laws, which trump county law, which trumps county and local administrator judgement calls. Concessions have never been a relevant feature of electoral outcomes, only the cards talk.
Also Al Franken didnt grab the womans boobs, he just posed for a photo pretending to do so on a flight full of soldiers and in view of the womans husband. Not his finest hour but certainly not A breast trope of the type that Bill Clinton and Trump have been credibly accused of.
Maricopa County Recorder Adrian Fontes set up four Emergency Voting locations(all 4 in heavily dem areas mind you), despite two problems: (1) there was no emergency, and (2) after asking permission from the Board of Supervisors to set up the Emergency Voting locations and being told No, he did it anyway. He also then mixed these votes in with the legit ballots..game set and match
The early vote locations were established because people had been disuaded by long lines in early voting. It meant that early voting was allowed for two extra days for those who might have to work on election day. He was never told no, a Republican elections official told him "Yes, you are allowed to do this, but please segregate these votes in case we want to challenge later". The GOP official didnt have authority to make him segregate the votes, so the election official didnt touch the ballots, they counted them with all the others. They amounted to 3,000 votes.
A realistic impact is that Sinema wins these votes by 10 points, and that 60% would have been made Tuesday if not on the weekend. So I put impact at 180 votes. But certainly not more than 3,000.
Sinema is up by 35,800 votes, and this will expand before the counting is done.
In summary, not at all "mysterious", not at all illegal (GOP not even suing, this is a controversy that exists only in right-wing media), and not anywhere close to the difference in the election.
Paddyboy, wtf do you come up with this defense for Al Franken? Let's get a little deeper. Here is a quote from the victim Leann Tweeden earlier in the flight. Her husband present??
He came at me, put his hand on the back of my head, mashed his lips against mine and aggressively stuck his tongue in my mouth, Tweeden writes in a post released Thursday. I immediately pushed him away with both of my hands against his chest and told him if he ever did that to me again I wouldnt be so nice about it next time.
If I'm prosecutor, that's sexual harassment/assault.