CFB Week 1 plays
RightAngle
Admin
Who do you like and why?
Will post a few of my own by the end of the month!
Will post a few of my own by the end of the month!
Comments
Will mark this thread!
Get a little wisdom from you!!!
Okie, you're a smart guy but let me ask you this. Why would he give out proprietary info when most here would pay for it? How does that Eagle lyric go........"we are programmed to receive"
Good luck with this.
Oregon State returns 16 starters (7 offense, 9 defense) including senior quarterback Jake Luton. Luton suffered a concussion in the opener and only started 4 games but finished with a respectable 10/4 ratio and 62.5 completion percentage. Oregon State adds Nebraska transfer quarterback Tristan Gebbia who was very highly rated coming out of high school (Steele #9). Running back Jermar Jefferson is the offensive MVP after rushing for 1380 yards and 12 touchdowns while earning Pac-12 freshman offensive player of the year as a true freshman. The Beavers also return their leading wide receiver in Isaiah Hodgins who was honorable mention Pac-12 last year and add another Nebraska transfer in wide receiver Tyjon Lindsey (Steele #5) who started one game in 2017 as a true freshman. Left tackle Blake Brandel has 36 career starts (27 @LT) and is among 4 seniors on the offensive line.
On defense Oklahoma transfer Addison Gumbs should be a nice addition to the defensive line although he is being eased in to practice coming off of knee surgery. The Beavers added two other junior college defensive ends that were both in for the spring and should contribute. Oregon State brings in, stop me if you heard this before, another Nebraska transfer in Avery Roberts who is expected to start at linebacker. Sophomore David Morris, who earned honorable mention P12 honors as a true freshman in 2017 returns at safety after a medical redshirt in 2018.
The Beavers special teams struggled last year but hopefully will be better if not at least less noticeable given expected improvement on offense and defense.
Improving upon last years minus 10 turnover margin should be another positive factor. Last but not least former Beaver quarterback Jonathan Smith is now in his second year as head coach and he will field a better overall squad.
Oklahoma State returns just 12 starters (7 offense, 5 defense) while saying goodbye to a quarterback who accounted for 42 touchdowns and a running back who was a fourth round draft choice. Sophomore Chuba Hubbard is a more than capable replacement at running back but quarterback is more of a question mark as neither Hawaii transfer Dru Brown nor redshirt freshman Spencer Sanders have thrown a pass here. There is also a new offensive coordinator as Sean Gleeson arrives from Princeton. Wide receiver Tylan Wallace was a Biletnikoff finalist and the offense should put up plenty of points but may not match last years output.
The Cowboys defensive line is a question mark as they must replace their top five players including first and second team B12 members. They also lose their leading tackler and another second team B12 member from the linebacker unit. Their secondary should be improved but struggled last year.
The special teams unit was solid but not spectacular and must replace their punter and long snapper.
Oklahoma State was unpredictable last year as they won straight up three times as underdogs but also lost five times when favored. They are capable of a three touchdown victory in this game but its hard to trust them.
BM opened this spread at 16.5 and it didnt move for over a month before it went up to 17.5 and then fell to the current 15. Dont expect a ton of CLV with the plus 15 but anything over 14 has value with the underdog. Oregon State is at least a field goal better than last year. Oklahoma State could be a field goal worse. I have the line at -10 when giving Oregon State 2.5 points for a less than average HFA at the moment. Corvallis can be a tough place to play heres looking at you USC 2008. Game one at home arguably provides for some early season optimism and excitement from the crowd but this hasnt exactly been a Death Valley ala LSU or Clemson if you prefer. An outright upset isnt likely but it should be a competitive game and more than a two touchdown spread is generous.
As you obviously well know, it's hard to win with any internet/social media crowd, when it comes to sports betting information.
Inquiring minds only
USF had one of the worst run defenses in college football last year. The Badgers have excelled in these games when up against bad run defenses. They are 17-9 ATS the last ten years when facing run defenses ranked lower than #100. Most of these games they were huge favorites and we only have to lay -10.5 in this one. Last year UCF played USF on the road and without Milton for most of the game and they had close to 400 yds rushing.
Edit: Forgot the why...
Clemson's offense is going to be absolutely loaded especially their WRs, and Georgia Tech is a talent starved program coming off Paul Johnson's lack of recruiting efforts. They can no longer rely on system/discipline and I think there will be a big adjustment trying to take an inferior talented team into a new system. Similar to what happened to Arkansas early last year (hat tip acetoten for a lot of very knowledgeable Arkansas plays over the last year or so). I think Clemson will name their number and cover the 35, and given its early, i think they pile on.
Spazziani vs Leach interesting coordinater match up. not sold on Ewash transfer qb, and wazzu struggles ATS week 1 L5 yrs
This could easily be the worst match up for a new head coach, new system and not sure if they even need to pile it on, as it should be just a mismatch from start to finish. Clemson may close at 40 or more.
Florida only brings back 5 starters on offense with the line being the chief concern. However QB Franks is back and took a big leap forward last year finishing with a 24/6 ratio and adding 7 rushing TDs. Leading rusher Perine is back and Malik Davis who was expected to be next in line to the departed Jordan Scarlett also returns after breaking his foot last year. The top six receivers return including four who caught 25+ passes.
Florida returns 8 starters on defense and has All-SEC caliber players at all three levels. Jonathan Greenard arrives as a grad transfer from Lousiville and will look to improve upon the 7.5 sacks he registered in 2017 before missing 2018 due to injury. They must replace their leading tackler but sophomore Amari Burney is a highly rated recruit who had 11 tackles as a true freshman last year and is expected to step into a starting role at linebacker. The secondary could be the best in the country led by cornerback CJ Henderson.
Florida has excellent special teams units and in what is forecasted to be a low scoring game (50.5 total at pin currently) that could be key.
Head coach/play-caller Dan Mullen and defensive coordinator Todd Grantham are now in their second year in Gainesville and QB Franks appeared to find his groove last year. If the offensive line holds up and they can replace Jachai Polites 11 sacks on defense (Greenard should help) the Gators could challenge Georgia for the SEC East title although I still rate the Bulldogs a touchdown or so better.
Miami head coach Manny Diaz was the defensive coordinator in Coral Gables the last three years. He was actually the head coach at Temple for 18 days this December (no HC experience before that) until Mark Richt suddenly retired and Diaz decided to head back to Miami.
The Hurricanes return 6 starters on offense including their most effective quarterback in sophomore NKosi Perry who finished with a 13/6 ratio, 1 rushing TD, but only a 50.8 completion percentage last year. Many expected Ohio State transfer Tate Martell to win the QB job but that has yet to happen and three quarterbacks have been getting practice reps including redshirt freshman Jarren Williams. Like Florida, the offensive line is a concern for Miami and they may start four underclassmen. There is plenty of talent at running back and receiver - note former RB DeeJay Dallas may move over to receiver. KJ Osborn also joins the receiving corps after a 3rd team All-MAC season at Buffalo last year.
Miami also returns 6 starters on defense highlighted by their linebacking corps which is led by the man in the middle Shaquille Quarterman. The defensive line adds two transfers with starting experience in Trevon Hill from Virginia Tech and Chigozie Nnoruka from UCLA. The Hurricane secondary lost three players to the NFL and could be an issue. USC transfer Bubba Bolden was projected to start at safety but he has yet to practice with the team.
Miami special teams were less than stellar last year although junior college punter Louis Hedley is expected to improve their #117 net punting rating from last year.
Looking at common opponents from last year Florida beat LSU 27-19 while Miami lost 33-17 and Florida beat Florida State 41-14 while Miami won 28-27. I wouldnt put too much stock into one game but the last time we saw these teams play Florida destroyed Michigan 41-15 while Miami was on the losing end of a blowout to Wisconsin 35-3. From a pure talent differential the near touchdown spread is appropriate and both defenses should be excellent. I give Florida the edge on offense, at kicker and punter. Considering Miami has a new HC, a new OC, and possibly a new QB, I think it all adds up to a Gator victory. If Miami is indeed trailing and has to pass in the 4th quarter to win/cover I dont trust their QB/s. The line opened at 8.5 which may have been a touch high but at minus 6 there is some value with the Gators. Note at the time of this writeup it already moved back to 6.5 at BM and my guess is it closes at 7 or 7.5 particularly since it opened at 8.5.
Thanks for the feedback - I fully agree (obv). This thread was a great idea thanks to RAS for the idea, leadoff, and plays.
I actually like Mia plus the 7 as once again, I think FL is overrated.
Also like Mizzou ov 8 wins. Favorable schedule this year and could be 8-0 going into the GA game. Have 5 str8 home games after opening up at WYO.
Virginia -2'
Great call. Easy as they come. I didnt even watch second half knowing it was locked up.
Yes, played very well with halftime adjustments after giving up late score to end 1st half. Clemson was a bit closer than expected but by GTech scoring forced them to keep 1st team in whole game. Nice 2-0 week on site.