sharpfootballanalysis
thecaptain12
Senior Member
anyone have sharp football analysis write up on the super bowl? he posts his units on his web site, but never what juice/odds he paid? tough to know if someone is doing well based on zero juice? thanks.
The Captain
The Captain
Comments
I don't know exactly but he had 3 unit plays on Giants and Giants Under 7 pt tease. He had three 2 unit props that all lost although in his write up he listed one as 1st half pts vs 2nd half as even it was actually 2nd -1/2 pt. He had no safety for half unit and he lost a bunch of 1 unit prop. So overall great on the big ones and killed on the props. As far as juice he had no return on 1st kick that I got at -160 and under on kick returns that he listed at 160 but I got at 200. You are right it is hard to tell. Hope this helped.
week Sharp Football
1 -1.5 Season Total 3.15
2 0.7
3 2.8
4 5.45
5 6.75
6 -1.9
7 0
8 -2.25
9 9.15
10 3.7
11 2.85
12 -11.2
13 -1.1
14 -3
15 2.8
16 -3
17 -4
wc -2.4
div 0.85
champ -1.55
sb
Super Bowl Units W/L Odds Units w/l
NYG +3 3 W 3
Tease NYG 3 W 3
More Points 2H 2 P 0
Total KO Ret u6.5 2 L -160 -3.2
Beckum o10.5 rec yds 2 L ?? -2.2
Rolle o 6 Tackles 2 L ?? -2.2
Goskowski o1.5 FG 1 L ?? -1.1
E Manning more 2h Passyds 1 ? ? ?
K Phillips o 5 Tackles 1 L ??? -1.1
NO SAfety 0.5 L -1300?? -6.75
NO Missed xp 0.5 W 0.5
WElker o6.5 Rec 1 W 1
Welker o 78.5 1 L ?? -1.1
Manningham o3 rec 1 W 1
1st ko touchback 1 L -110? -1.1
Beckum o9.5 rec yards 1 L - 110? -1.1
T Brady o 2.5 Rushes 1 L -110? -1.1
1 coaches chall overturned 1 L -110? -1.1
T Brady MVP 1.5 L ?? -1.5
3 Straight Scores NO 1 L ??? -1.1
1 Quarter under 10.5 1 W 1
-15.15
amen to that. at least I went 6-1 and you would be able to see the same if I went 1-6 (see Tribes best bet thread)
Sharp's side (NYG+3) and teaser (NYG/Under) selections in the Super Bowl."
I know this sounds like I am trying to catch a cheat, and well I am.Can someone just email him to see what he says? I am guessing he is saying he won the Super Bowl Plays with the above mentioned plays.
I guess I am infatuated with this...
First, I don't think Sharp is a cheat. All year he posted his plays on the site and Twitter and his results which he listed were consistent with those plays. I will say, however, that his lines on his plays are not always available. This was especially true with the props on the SB. On some of the props, No Safety, for example he did not even list odds. Thus, getting an accurate record would not be possible except to keep your own.
Having dealt with many touts I will say that IMO Sharp is one of the better ones. Does he likely take liberties with his marketing, of course, but I do not believe that he is out and out lying or giving out both sides etc. Sorry I can not help more with his exact record but I did not keep track.
I agree with some of this. I do not think he is a total cheat. He does however not ever list how many units he is up/down even though he buys .5 points often and has some play rated 1.5, 2 or even 3 stars. I actually purchased his plays a few years back and did quite well. Then this new website started which is just about records. I emailed him a few months ago about units and he told me what each play was worth, which is how I figured his yearly units, but that does not show on the site, as he "does not have the time to do that." Just think his stuff is pretty good and want an accurate record. I have many friends who like him but have no idea that he does this, and for $500+ I want to let them know.
As for twitter I know he says he has a play, just not what it is. You have to go to his site minutes after kickoff to see.
couldn't agree more but I will say in the past he has won. He hasn't gotten back and I sent a different email from 5 different addresses some nice and some not so nice.
Lol, clever. During his winning times, I'm sure that he found time to keep everything updated.
I disagree with your blanket characterization of Sharp. Unless you have been a client, like I have, then you really don't know. He is in business to sell a product and as I said he, like ALL others but I believe to a far less insidious degree, takes liberties. Do you disparage the local bar owner who advertises "Coldest Beer in Town" or "World's Best Cheeseburger"? He portrays his business in the most positive way and I have no problem with that as long as he is not lying.
I too have been a client in years pass and even a few weeks early this year. That is whey I decided I can do the same or better than him. That is partially the reason I want accurate records for comparison purposes and I won that easy. I know he didn't hide any wins/losses from week 1-17 but see nothing in the playoffs except that he won he side. Thanks for your help with this situation bkeiller
It can be a fine line, bk, but I think he's definitely crossing it here. He had a bad playoffs, losing what seems to be a significant amount, so he just deleted it and pretended it never happened. Except he posted the 2 winners from the super bowl and didn't mention the many losers including the bridge jumper no safety that destroyed his clients if they followed. It would be like if RAS not only deleted everything after 12/31, but posted only the winners.
You're either fully transparent or you're not. You can't pretend to be and then not be. He's not. Deleting a bunch of losing picks and only posting the winners is out and out lying. I've paid attention to this guy for a couple of years and have always leaned to the opinion that he does things the right way and was a decent guy and capper. But I've never done or seen a breakdown like this. I was clearly wrong.
He's obviously willing to lie and cheat, and if he's done it here, then who knows when else he has.
Do you honestly think the props would have been erased (I believe lva calls them "pushed threads" lol) had they won? I honestly had never heard of the guy before this thread, but he's obviously shady with his recordkeeping practices which is all I need to know = he loses.
It is a fine line. If you look at his 2011 record he did not include the playoffs at all. He did however show all his regular season W/L's and this was accurate, in fact, he showed a losing record by the computer 1-3 on his big Computer Over picks. Im not saying the guy is RAS but then again I dont think anyone in this industry is. That I guess is my point. I think 95% of the touts are out and out crooks. It is just my opinion but there is a real difference between not posting a subset that was bad and posting a winning record when in fact it was losing. I EXPECT that even legitimate touts are framing their record to make it look as good as they can and I take ALL records reported with a grain of salt.
I also follow Fezzik and I dont disparage him if he advertises as "2 time Hilton winner" rather than "Horrendous 2011". Again just my opinion but I view these guys as businessmen who are fluffing their product. There IS a difference between fluff and lying. If Sharp advertised as having a "Winning Day on SB" I would have to change my opinion. I may be wrong about him and Ill pay more attention in the future. Time will tell.
The fact that you admittedly follow fezzik explains a lot about how you view recordkeeping and selective "advertisement", but you don't honestly believe that when "sharp" types
on his website that he isn't insinuating that he "had a winning day on SB"? C'mon man, that's as shady as it gets.
I don't care how he advertises. I agree with you in that sense. You're certainly going to advertise to your strengths.
I care that he deleted losing picks. That's out and out lying, cheating, stealing or whatever you want to call it. It's beyond shady and makes him a scum in my book.
I'm 94-78 on posted CBB picks this this year. Let's say that all of a sudden I start advertising that I'm 94-65, hitting 59% and up 22.5 units. You don't see anything wrong with that? After all, all I did was eliminate about 14 units worth of losers from my "transparent" record, just like sharp did.
You are certainly entitled to your opinion and to feel that way but to me that is too black and white. Of course I would agree with your example as stated and not even attempt to argue that Sharp is totally transparent. I have agreed it is shady I just dont think it crosses the line. If however in your example the 13 or 14 (the math was unclear in your example) were from the playoffs or preseason and you advertised as "CBB Regular Season" on the rest then I would not have a problem with it. Again, I agree it is shady and it IS a very slippery slope but again I ASSUME all these guys are doing it and I take it for what the records are worth "not much".
I may know the business I drive by that says "Worlds Best Cheeseburger" may not be actually the best but it doesnt mean I wont eat it and enjoy it but that is different then if I get a chicken sandwich. Just my opinion.
Finally, the reason I think this board works is we do uphold standards and require complete transparency but I think that is the exception in the tout business and not the rule. I go in with eyes wide open.
sides 116-111 = -6.1 units
$$ lines 2-18 = -14.2 units
So, what if I can turn it around-- and end up posting a plus unit record on my side plays. And then talk about "another winning season" --- all the while conveniently dropping any mention of my money line plays. Fair? And, on here, people can fade or follow at no cost for the picks. But, if I'm going tout, deleting losing plays not only is lying-- it is stealing money from unsuspecting people who don't know the true record.
All the guys aren't doing it.
Some records are fully transparent.
Agree RAS and sorry about my post. Slipped my mind
Exactly. Although I'm not endorsing or failing to endorse touts, any tout/random poster worth following will surely make time for extensive and detailed recordkeeping. It's no accident that winning players/posters/touts will keep extremely detailed records of their plays. Do you think that it's a coincidence that when somebody asks Stevie "hey how are your totals doing vs sides", etc. that he can respond within a millisecond?
I'm quite sure that transparent/detailed recordkeeping should be the number one feature to look at when determining whether to follow a certain capper or not. I have a hunch that the good ones could all insta-inform you how they are doing in any subset that you would question.
Ask ras how he's done on big west dogs, then ask "sharp" how he did on nfl road favorites and see the difference.