Danshan on the business of betting pod
danshan
Senior Member
Come take a listen and please give me some feedback you know I love a good conversation
https://soundcloud.com/businessofbetting/ep-147-modeling-is-dead
Comments
You sounded dumber than I expected.
That was spanky-esque BAD.
well at least you listened and replied. I wish you would elaborate on what parts you felt made me sound dumb?
You sounded a lot different than what I expected and not a lot of good analysis there. Not so much dumb although not much to what you said..
So basically you spent 1 hour saying that models were dead but made no case for it. You said are wasting your time trying to outdo a off the shelf model which is total BS.
You were wrong about betting in smaller markets. People are talking about betting in easier to beat markets rather than the Poker Joe type bets you referenced. Those are strictly for the math boys which is a good way to win but not what most are looking for.
You said CLV does not matter which you have yammered on all over every forum. Of course, it matters. It does not matter in the specific as I have referenced. But it does matter on the whole.
Adjustments do something for you in NBA and MLB where the lines are tight. Especially NBA. Probably not so much MLB. I'd say there are some pretty good modelers there doing more than adjustments.
When it comes to the smaller markets, those are beatable with a model and will do better than using an off the shelf which are not particularly good.
That about wraps it up. Overall, not a particularly good listen but was interesting to hear you talk. As opposed to the fantasy guy who talked about specifics and how he won his money.
When the host asked you what "adjustments" you were talking about, you just said injuries. That ain't going to cut it.
I also highly doubted your claim of 3% ROI on that crap over 20,000 bets based on what you have posted here but maybe so. You might have cranked out 20,000 bets in the last year or so.
Weird how self promotion is now allowed here. This type of thing was frowned upon for years here.
I am not talking about anything in the podcast. I did not listen. So sorry danshan, its not about you or your content. Just a general thought, from a long time poster/reader/
This forum has always been about self promotion. It is dedicated to self promotion. danshan and his app are a bit borderline but not much different from what has gone on here in the past.
give it a listen stack attack
most people thought it was a really good listen.
when I referenced niche markets I said I thought people were betting smaller markets like ping pong or bowling, I did not realize when most sharp bettors are betting small markets they are actually betting derivatives of major markets like HRE or Under 9 +400 when the total is 12 -110.
I said 90% of people cant make a model period and the other 10% <1% of them can build a model that can beat an off the shelf market. I also said people that make a good model are going against people making a good model and they have to pay the juice, so two equally great models cant win against a book using internal skilled models and adjustments they get from sharp bettors with juice. I said the biggest key to beating the markets is usually adjustments that people make to their model or the off shelf markets
and it was a great listen it was nice to hear from someone that actually bets for a living and is not part of the circle jerk of sharp bettors who just compliment each other on what they are doing.
the cliff detection conversation was super important and is good information for anyone skilled or not
thanks for the review and I love to debate and talk about anything in the pod or otherwise. I am doing the Pinnacle podcast with Ben Cronin next. I will post links for that as well once its released
Are you posting your own reviews?
I guess I should add mine.
this is what Im talking about guys. back in the day (not that long ago, when RAS actually cared about BT). LINKS of any kind, outside of news....were deleted by the mods. they just don't care about this forum anymore, I hate to say that.
I don't think you have ever been able to not post links to a podcast. Just because you are on the podcast does not mean you cannot link to it. You are now allowed to link to your tout service. danshan links to a betting site. He does own the site. He has an app there that he profits from but he is linking to site anyone can reference. He is free on a technicality. He is within posting guidelines.
I'd like to see what Goats or TommyL or ED would have to say.
Posting (personal) twitter accounts used to be grounds for deletion but now podcasts are allowed?
They just don't care anymore.
That's true. I don't think they read the site. There are only 11 views per day.
This site is a shell of what it used to be and feels as though it’s on its last leg. Unfortunate as I have learned and won so much from this site over the years.
is everyone in slack now? I tried to mess around a little bit with it but doesn’t seem as user friendly as this forum was/is. Maybe just need to mess around with it more.
hoping I am wrong but this seems like it’s on its last leg.
forum is dead but for anyone here did anyone listen to the pod would love some bt members opinions, bt opinions use to mean a ton
church
ive heard your voice over the phone...
and what did you think of the podcast Jets?
Have you guys tried slack chat? That is where it is at. BT is all about the future. You guys are stuck iin the past. Get on there and start chatting.
So why exactly is this forum still here?
Some of us guys, really like this forum and have put in a ton of time reading, posting, hell even making real friends (and getting jobs).
If they don't care about this. Just put it out of its misery but I think it would be a huge mistake.
internet forums are about traffic, the same 2 guys posting and the mods and senior members only responding to them scared away any new members. this forums death is its own doing. just like you are doing now
if jets posted a podcast he did, all the old members would be all talking about it and participating but since its me who is not in the bt in crowd, you just talk about the forum instead, that is why its dead.
ok. its not about you which I said in original post.
I wont interfere in your thread anymore. good luck with the pod and your plays.
They just have not pulled the plug. Plus it is still good for hawking RAS some.It is worth keeping around. Edward does not throw away long shot bets.
The death of BT can be traced to a combination of factors:
I have to admit, your one funny dude.