# NFL 2019 #
Obi One
Senior Member
Don't post a lot anymore, but there are some plays where I do know I have a good grasp of the market and where the value is. One of them are NFL season long futures. Last year was my 1st down year of the previous 4. Whereas only 2 of my futures to win their conference actually made it to the playoffs. and none of them actually won anything, but alas not every long-shot is going to get there. RSW futures went 3-4 after winning the 3 previous years too.
For the people not used to the NFL futures I post, I just want to be clear that I'm in no way saying: THIS TEAM WILL DEFINITELY WIN THE NFC (or AFC)!!!
All I'm saying is that given the odds, I'd rather be holding a 50-1 future than 4-1 future, in the case that both those teams make it to the playoffs. And that's all there is to it. A couple of good breaks during the season and an 8-8 team turns into a 10-6 team ready to rumble in the playoffs.
To win 2 units:
ATL to win NFC +2000
DET to win NFC +5000 (Bears are not going to win 12 games again)
SEA to win NFC +1500
DEN to win AFC +4000
BAL to win AFC +2000
HOU to win AFC +2000
I actually really like the chances of the Colts to win it all this year, but the odds are too small to invest and Luck is carrying a small (but significant) calf injury. The injury has been lingering for 2 months already. Not going to invest in them.
Regular Season Wins:
ATL OVER 8.5 -125
BAL OVER 8.5 +100
CLE OVER 9.5 -110 (liked a lot of what they did over the last year. But now everybody is hyped about them. Offensive line a moderate weakness, Don't draft Njoku in fantasy! He'll be busy pass-protecting)
DET OVER 6.5 -120
HOU OVER 8.5 +110
NEP UNDER 11.5 -130
SEA OVER 8.5 -130
For the people not used to the NFL futures I post, I just want to be clear that I'm in no way saying: THIS TEAM WILL DEFINITELY WIN THE NFC (or AFC)!!!
All I'm saying is that given the odds, I'd rather be holding a 50-1 future than 4-1 future, in the case that both those teams make it to the playoffs. And that's all there is to it. A couple of good breaks during the season and an 8-8 team turns into a 10-6 team ready to rumble in the playoffs.
To win 2 units:
ATL to win NFC +2000
DET to win NFC +5000 (Bears are not going to win 12 games again)
SEA to win NFC +1500
DEN to win AFC +4000
BAL to win AFC +2000
HOU to win AFC +2000
I actually really like the chances of the Colts to win it all this year, but the odds are too small to invest and Luck is carrying a small (but significant) calf injury. The injury has been lingering for 2 months already. Not going to invest in them.
Regular Season Wins:
ATL OVER 8.5 -125
BAL OVER 8.5 +100
CLE OVER 9.5 -110 (liked a lot of what they did over the last year. But now everybody is hyped about them. Offensive line a moderate weakness, Don't draft Njoku in fantasy! He'll be busy pass-protecting)
DET OVER 6.5 -120
HOU OVER 8.5 +110
NEP UNDER 11.5 -130
SEA OVER 8.5 -130
Comments
OAK UNDER 6 -127 (Too much drama, horrible schedule and travel, too combustible, lack of talent)
WSH UNDER 6 -141 (Defense might keep them competitive in games, but where is the offense coming from? No Trent Williams)
NYJ OVER 7.5 -107 (Darnold growth, looked totally in command of the offense, played uptempo and no-huddle. Deep and talented offensive team)
Starting wideouts are pretty good as well as tight end, we go downhill after that, i do like your over jet bet but i got them early at 6.5 but the lay killed me.
good luck this season
251 CAR/HOU Over 47 -115
255 WSH/ NYG Over 48.5
269 SEA/ARI Over 48
1261 KC/DET 1H Over 27
1268 TBB/LAR 1H Under 24
254 BAL -6.5 -115
260 IND -6.5 -115
471 DEN/ LAC Over 44
473 GBP +3.5
478 CLE/SF Under 48
1461 NE -9 1H -115
Plays for week 6:
257 HOU +5.5
259 NO/JAX Over 44 -115
261 PHI/MIN Over 43.5
265 SF +4
270 NYJ +8.5
104 NEP -16.5
From Patriots beat at the stadium:
"Thought this game was supposed to be played inside a car wash. No rain, some wind now and then, but overall its fine out here."
272 TEN/DEN Under 41
257 HOU +5.5 positive +2
259 NO/JAX Over 44 -115 negative -1.5, no idea why, Jalen Ramsey out. Minshew gonna throw as NO is a pass funnel. Going over any which way.
261 PHI/MIN Over 43.5 positive +1
265 SF +4 positive +1
270 NYJ +8.5 already positive +1.5 but still 3 hours till game time
255 SEA/CLE Over 45.5 no clv, looks like it will go over.
272 TEN/DEN Under 41 holding steady, tbd
451 ARI +2.5
453 HOU +1
456 BUF -16.5
459 OAK/GB Under 46.5
adding week 7:
465 SF -9.5
That 49er defense is DIS.RUP.TIVE.
minus 17 would be a better number here
461 JAX -3
451 ARI +2.5 (+3's at -120 widely available at the time of this posting)
453 HOU +1
456 BUF -16.5
459 OAK/GB Under 46.5
461 JAX -3
465 SF -9.5
adding 473 PHI +3 -120
458 DET PK
458 MIN/DET Under 46 -115
- recency bias has people believing the Vikes have an air attack. Philly and NYG don't actually have a pass defense, so it's easy to look good vs them. Vikes lost all other games where they played a good pass defense. Game in GB was 21-0 before they made it look close, same in CHI where they were down 16-0 late in the 4th Q.
edit: News just broke of Jalen Ramsey trade to Rams, number will be off the board shortly
304 KC/DEN U49 -115
Over the last 2 weeks Indy and Houston have shown how to beat KC. With a 'Cruijff-ian' (Johan, soccer player and coach) approach: "If your opponent doesn't have the ball, he can't score". Ironically that's exactly the strenght of the Denver offense. Slow, methodical drives that move the chains. By now the Chiefs know that teams will apply this strategy, and that they're vulnerable to it, which means they have to game-plan for *slow, methodical drives* themselves. If the KC offense with Mahomes gets the ball and scores within 2 minutes, they'd be doing their defense a great disservice and they will be gassed by the 3rd Quarter. They need a rest too.
I found a slow moving book, that still has the 50 out there. but will put this out at 49, as that number is also available. I wouldn't play it at 48.5. The 49 is key here.
One of the things that I have adapted in my handicapping, which I don't see talked about in the cappersworld is the following: How did your predictive analysis do?
It's nice to post records and measure your CLV, but what about the reasoning or fundamental numbers analysis which made you pull the trigger on a pick? You might have won the bet, but was your analysis correct? Or did you luck in? This method requires you watching a whole lot of games, but it seriously helps with the development of your handicapping. I'll give an analysis for the pick above on yesterday's NFL game:
This was the reasoning:
- More running plays will drain the clock.
- Denver good enough to move the chains, not know for big plays the way KC can.
- Denver defense might be able to contain KC
- If KC Defense can stay fresh, they might contain Denver
Actual game:
- Denver kept running the ball even in the 4th Q when they needed 4 scores to win it. (stupidity of NFL coaches knows no boundaries)
- KC defense was wayyy better than expected, on one hand they held the Denver Offense, on the other hand they scored a quick D/ST TD return, which is never good for an Under play
- KC also had 'relatively' slow and methodical drives
- Unforeseen: Mahomes injury
- Unforeseen: KC with twice a very short field due to 1/ a punt return by Hardman to the Denver 22 yard line, and 2/ A truly 'WTF-moment' when Denver tried a fake punt, handing KC the ball on downs at the Denver 37.
All in all: Game would have stayed under more often than not. It wasn't slam-dunk analysis, but major assumptions were correct. So even as the line moved against me shortly prior to game time, I know I had the correct side.
As you can imagine, there will be times when the analysis is a slam dunk, but the result is a loss. I use the following matrix:
1. Analysis correct - and bet wins
2. Analysis correct - but bet loses
3. Analysis wrong - but bet luckily wins
4. Analysis wrong - and bet squarely loses
It tells you how 'good' your handicapping is. Many 1's and 2's....keep at it, but when there are many 3's and 4's ......pause betting and work on your capping/ model.
Adding for week 7:
451 ARI/ NYG Over 50 -105
First plays for week 8:
270 CAR/SF Under 41.5 -105
272 DEN/ IND Under 43.5
468 LAC/ TEN Under 42.5
469 BAL/ SEA Over 49
Also expecting NO/ CHI to be low-scoring, let's see whether the line will hit 38 again, as I missed out on that one initially
262 BUF -2.5
278 PIT -14
TNF:
301 SF -8
Sunday:
455 TEN/ CAR Over41
467 TB +6.5
NE/ BAL Under 44.5
more to follow if numbers re-open at same numbers as they were this afternoon.
253 BUF +3
257 NYG/ NYJ Over 44.5
260 NO -13.5
270 PIT +4
309 PIT +2.5 -105
461 NYJ +1.5
472 OAK -10 -115
467 ARI +11 -105
456 ATL/ CAR Under 49.5 (could have gotten much better number damnit, still believe new Atlanta approach -run first- will keep this one under, combined with much better defense suddenly after DefCoordinators switch-up)