Help with MLB over under math
danshan
Senior Member
I am looking at MLB totals and getting a litle confused, I hope someone can help me, I would really appreciate it.
Example assuming -110 margin
Giants U8 -110
so that means the line is for like a decimal purpose that is 8.00 right?
now if it was Giants U8 -120 what would it be decimal wise?
say its 8
-110 is 8.00
-120 ?
-130 ?
where is the 7.75 more or less I assume its not perfect.
Example assuming -110 margin
Giants U8 -110
so that means the line is for like a decimal purpose that is 8.00 right?
now if it was Giants U8 -120 what would it be decimal wise?
say its 8
-110 is 8.00
-120 ?
-130 ?
where is the 7.75 more or less I assume its not perfect.
Comments
Based on these questions, its obvious whatever model you are using is something you just randomly put in and its probably not even a model but you call it that. I can't believe anyone on this forum even take you seriously. Whatever model you have is your putting numbers and stats in and it and then you have a play. Using the word model is a disgrace to anyone who actually models.
Your model if you even showed it to someone legit would probably laugh at it because its because junk.
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they wont help you Donny I will, they hope you lose so they can make 10 cents off your dumb plays, I am not them. I am the little guy trying to make it, they are the enemy not me, pay attention, you might grab some knowledge from me.
<style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--></style>
<colgroup><col style="width: 34px"><col width="143"><col width="107"><col width="53"><col width="55"><col width="55"><col width="46"><col width="58"><col width="38"><col width="45"><col width="38"><col width="47"><col width="66"></colgroup><tbody>
7/12
David Price
Red Sox
8.65
9.13
9
O
-110
-0.48
5.49%
7/12
David Price
Red Sox
8.65
9.15
9
O
-111
-0.50
5.78%
7/12
David Price
Red Sox
8.65
9.10
9
U
-101
-0.45
5.20%
7/12
David Price
Red Sox
8.65
9.08
9.5
U
-122
-0.42
4.91%
</tbody>
see the 9.13 9.10 and 9.08 those essentially should be the same and they are not and I cant figure out how to fix that.
I am using this as my formula to try and get it
=if(I9="","",if(J9="O",I9-(K9-(-105))*0.025,I9+(K9-(-105))*0.025))
I know what youre trying to do. What I said will help you do it.
lets assume a game is at
Under 8 -105 Over 8 -105 can we both agree that a decimal way to say that is 8.00?
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and if we can agree to that what is the decimal equivalent of this
Under 8 -110 Over 8 +100
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I am guessing like 7.85 or something but I am trying to get the equation to get closer.
I need a fairly accurate decimal number to determine where to bet
Example I make a line of 8.71
and the game is 9.5U -115 how would I know how close I am to 9.5U -115 without a decimal conversion. I cannot model it a different way that would easily convert to 9.5U -115 without some sort of conversion, right?
just tell me how to solve this one scenario and I can figure the rest out from there!
Seems pretty straightforward. You need 6 columns like this
Untitled.jpg
A2= the odds, -110, -120 +150 etc
B2 is the total, 7.5, 8, etc
C2 is this formula =IF(A2<0,(A2)/((A2)-100),IF(A2>0,((100)/((A2)+100))))
D2 is this: =(C2)/(1-C2)
E2 is this: =POWER(D2,0.556)
F2 is this: =(B2*E2/(1+E2))*2
changing the juice will manipulate the columns and spit out the projected runs in the F2 cell for the game. Keep in mind though that you will need to remove the juice with a vig removal calculator prior to entering the juice into the A2 cell or you will simply get the amount of runs expected including the rake. So if the book is offering O8 -110 U8 -110 both sides entered here will spit out 8.2 expected runs instead of the actual projection the book is offering of exactly 8 runs. Hope that helps
if you have
8U -117 it gives 8.35
8O -117 it gives 8.35
its not using the O U into consideration
can we modify it so it goes up or down based on the condition of O and U?
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and its a little off
12O -107 is not 12.23 its more like 12.05
thanks for the help though, really appreciate it and if you can help anymore it would be great!
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I think this fixes the over under problem
=if(J12="O",(R12)/(1-R12),(1-R12)/(R12))
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I think the power is too strong
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more like this
=POWER(S13,0.01)
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that overcooks it, I cant get it, I will keep trying anyway, thanks, any more ideas would be greatly appreciated!