its more like way less effecient market and way easier to cap, I think if some of the big dogs focused on capping these games my results would changer faster than I reply to a post!
this LIberty situation is a perfect example of the topic of multiple injuries. I had this line way higher and even with these injuries it does not get down to -2, that is why I bet it. I think the cumulative effect is overrated. I think the talent diff between 1st team to 2nd tier can be huge but 2nd tier to 3rd not so much. so a bunch of 2nd tier injuries the biggest thing is gel not talent level necessarily, IMHO, please chime in if you have some better insight, would love the help!
yes its working!, No nothing I still have not figured out how to do the stupid conversion from stars to aces in my model, so my model still sees them as 2 teams and I cant get any good numbers for Aces games yet
i adjusted exactly what you did , 3 pts for love. Dont know if cleve can jump start again on the west coast , that being said , the line is the great equalizer and anyone who takes the cavs certainly has value , not touching it but then again if i could tease total with team id look at it closer.
With you on the under as well , oh thats +ev i think right ???
why the Cavs, I hate the cavs it ruins the whole fun game of modeling. They are always crap against the spread.
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[TH="align: center"]ATS:[/TH]
39-58-3 (-3.06, 40.2%) this year and its not their fault people just bet the crap out of them when they dont deserve it +EV wise LOL
just looking at the total
i have subsets of 58% un
53 percent under
61 percent under
and then adding the shit everyone knows ...cle 52 percent under on the road and gsw 53 percent under at home
both blow out below .500 teams and go over and both team under at 60% when playing teams above .500...have them broken down even more ,way more....with much higher percentages ....so its fair to say with all that said ....bet the fucking over
Comments
10-2
CLV 4.96%
I agree, Thank You for sharing with the board.
Sparks U161
11-3
CLV 5.05%
Nice work...
Liberty -2
Mystics U167
Lynx -6
Washington U164
CLV 5.79%
Mercury U159.5
Storm U168.5
kicking ass brother
I will probably take the Under if its 214.5 or higher
With you on the under as well , oh thats +ev i think right ???
<tbody>
[TH="align: center"]ATS:[/TH]
39-58-3 (-3.06, 40.2%) this year and its not their fault people just bet the crap out of them when they dont deserve it +EV wise LOL
</tbody>
i have subsets of 58% un
53 percent under
61 percent under
and then adding the shit everyone knows ...cle 52 percent under on the road and gsw 53 percent under at home
both blow out below .500 teams and go over and both team under at 60% when playing teams above .500...have them broken down even more ,way more....with much higher percentages ....so its fair to say with all that said ....bet the fucking over